Next to last update

Alright, busy weekend for me. So let,s go straight to the numbers. The late trend is favourable to the Liberals who have increased their lead in Ontario. At this point, the Conservatives will need the polls to be wrong to win the most seats. In any case, a minority is ultra likely.

Final projections tomorrow evening.


Projections




Map (percentages are, in order, CPC, LPC, NDP, Green and Bloc)




Riding by riding



Last look at who got its vote out already

Note: there'll be a quick projections update later this morning and then nothing until Sunday night. If you wanna know, my current projections have the Liberals at 137 seats and the CPC at 127.

You win elections by convincing people to vote for you and then actually making sure they go out and cast a ballot. While I'm not one who believes "machines" to get the vote out are the most important factor -I worked for campaigns that were clearly disorganized and yet the vote got out- I have to acknowledge that it can make a small difference.

We now got multiple polls surveying people who already voted. That is to say sampling the 4.7 mio Canadians who voted during the advance polls, a record. The 5 polls are from Mainstreet, Angus-Reid (check the detailed pdf), Ekos, Insight West (BC only) and Innovative. Firms with different methodologies and various results for the voting intentions.

In order to remove as much "house effect" (i.e the bias introduced by the specific methodology of a pollster), I took the difference between the reported votes and the voting intentions from the polls from these firms. For instance for Ekos, while 30% declared wanting to vote for the Conservatives, 37.5% declared having done so during the advance vote, thus a differential of 7.5%.

The table below presents all the results as well as a simple average.


It seems the Tories are the ones who most consistently score higher among people who have already voted. The Liberals do particularly well according to Mainstreet but it's a disaster according to Ekos (interesting that the two extremes for the LPC are from the two firms using IVR technology).

The average is influenced by the BC only numbers from Insight West of course. But even removing this poll wouldn't change the overall picture. Also, Campaign Research shows that BC is the province  -with Alberta- with the highest ratio of people who already voted over the number of people who intend to do so (40% versus 50%; remember polls always overestimate turnout because people who don't vote don't admit or straight up don't answer polls). This could matter because during the advance poll, the NDP was only starting its rise and was clearly 3rd in this province. That means it's possible many people who voted back then could have changed their mind. I don't think it's an issue major enough to cause a massive polling failure -mostly because people who vote in advance tend to be more committed anyway- but it could have a small influence and help the Tories.

As a reminder, in 2015, data shows the Liberals beat their polling numbers during the advance vote (and then went on to do the same on election day thanks to a late surge). It doesn't seem to be the case this year, unless Mainstreet is right (but if Mainstreet's numbers are right, the Liberals are also easily ahead in Ontario and could well be close to a majority).

I really hope Election Canada will release the advance turnout by riding today so that we can see where the increase is. In Quebec last year, we could clearly see the Liberal vote not coming out for instance. In BC 2 years ago, we could tell Surrey was going to flip - and it did. Surge in turnout is usually bad for incumbents.

So all in all, I don't see anything that would suggest the Liberals to beat their polling numbers. If anything, it seems the Conservatives are more likely to do so. Although it's also likely that the CPC has more very committed voters but will pick up a lot less of undecided on Monday (or NPD/Green voting strategically at the last minute).

Un regard sur le Québec (et surtout le Bloc) à 3 jours du scrutin

On est dans la dernière ligne droite. On le sait car les chefs des partis ont déjà commencé à parler de qui devrait former le gouvernement dans un scénario minoritaire, le scénario le plus probable à moins de gros mouvements en fin de semaine.

La situation au Québec est forte différente de ce qui était en début de campagne. Début septembre, Trudeau et le PLC voyaient le Québec comme la terre promise, la province qui leur permettrait de non seulement conserver le pouvoir, mais de conserver une majorité. Le Québec avait le potentiel pour fournir possiblement 50 sièges à Trudeau, permettant ainsi de compenser les pertes assurées ailleurs.

Cela ne s'est pas passé de même et nous sommes en fait aux portes d'une large victoire du Bloc.

Avant de continuer cette analyse, voici les plus récentes projections. On va avoir beaucoup de sondages cette fin de semaine, il est ainsi probable que ces chiffres changent beaucoup d'ici dimanche soir, lorsque je publierai mes projections finales. Dans l'état, je crois que ces projections sont très... temporaires.

Projections



Carte



En détails




Le Québec

Voici l'évolution des intentions de vote dans cette province



Le Bloc a commencé la campagne sous les 20% et se retrouve maintenant à 30%. Cela varie quelque peu d'une firme à l'autre, mais la moyenne a été assez stable depuis quelque temps. L'énorme sondage Léger d'hier avec plus de 3000 observations juste au Québec mettaient le Bloc et Libéraux à 31%. En moyenne cependant, le Bloc reste juste un peu en arrière du PLC.

On peut aussi voir la dégringolade des Conservateurs. Il y avait un bon coup à jouer en début de campagne mais le chef Andrew Scheer n,a de toutes évidences pas convaincu. Il faut dire que ce n'est pas facile quand son français est aussi mauvais. Cela étant dit, le sondage dans Trois-Rivières plaçait le candidat PCC en tête, ce serait une victoire un peu surprise.

On remarque aussi la remontée du NPD en fin de campagne, une remontée moins forte que dans le reste du pays. Le NPD ne devrait cependant conserver que peu de sièges (Rosemont, possiblement Berthier-Maskinongé, peutêtre Outremont et Laurier-Sainte-Marie).

La carte ressemble à cela:


Chaque formation est projetée gagnante dans 32 sièges, mais il y a une tonne de luttes serrées. Quelques points de pourcentages pourraient faire une énorme différence. Par exemple, si le Bloc devait dépasser les Libéraux (mettons Bloc à 33% et PLC à 30%), la formation d'Yves-François Blanchet pourrait alors gagner près de 40 sièges.

Le sondage Léger montre bien un PLC concentré à Montréal. Le Bloc est devant dans la plupart des régions, dont le 450.

Dans la région de Montréal, le Bloc domine en banlieues alors que les Libéraux restent dominateurs sur l'île, surtout dans l'ouest.



Sur l'île, Laurier-Sainte-Marie se dirige vers une lutte à trois (le NPD pourrait créer une petite surprise). La Rive-Nord est très acquise au Bloc et la seule lutte devraient être dans Rivières-des-Milles-Iles. La Rive-Sud a davantage de luttes incertaines.

On est pas mal proche de la carte de 2008, avec le Bloc moins dominant à Laval. Il faut dire qu'en 2008, les Libéraux n'étaient qu'à 24%, pas au-dessus de 30.


Comparé à 2015, on voit la disparition du NPD. On voit aussi à quel point la remontée du Bloc fait mal aux Libéraux.



Dans la région de Québec, c'est Conservateurs sauf dans quelques comtés.


Si les Conservateurs pensaient pouvoir faire des gains (Gagner tous les comtés n'était pas impossible il y a 1 mois de cela), ils se retrouvent plutôt en mode défense maintenant. Beauport et Montmagny sont prenables pour le Bloc. Alors que la Beauce est une lutte serrée entre Bernier et son ancien parti.

Dans le reste du Québec, le Bloc peut rêver de gagner les deux sièges en Abitibi, Sherbrooke, la Gaspésie et Jonquière.

À part dans quelques endroits (Abitibit, Sherbrooke, Gaspésie), les sièges Libéraux restant semblent relativement sûrs. Ce que je veux dire ici c'est que le Bloc a déjà repris les sièges PLC qu'il pouvait. Les gains supplémentaires pourraient provenir des Conservateurs. Certains ont évoqué une victoire du Bloc comme celle de la CAQ il ya  1 an mais la CAQ avait reçu 37% des votes et le PLQ était loin derrière. Le Bloc n'est de loin pas autant en avance selon les sondages. Mais la tendance est bonne.

Je ne pense pas que le PLC pourrait avoir une soirée aussi catastrophique que celle des Libéraux provinciaux l'automne passé. Les troupes à Trudeau vont perdre des sièges, c'est sûr, mais ils ne s'écrouleront pas. Pour le Premier Ministre, la déception est plutôt que ces résultats forceront logiquement une minorité (et le GTA décidera si c'est une minorité Libérale ou Conservatrice).

Who is leading after the advance voting?

Election Canada published the number of people who cast a ballot during the advance voting: 4.7 mio. That's a 29% increase over the 3.7mio of 2015.

Given the fact that a bigger and bigger proportion of voters opt to vote during the advance voting period, I'm not sure the +29% guarantees an increased turnout. Just as a reminder, the increase between 2011 and 2015 was from 2.1 mio to 3.7mio, a 74% increase!

My guess is that the +29% will make it such that overall turnout will be similar or slightly lower.

Anyway, two polls have been published with data regarding people who declared they voted already. The first one, from Mainstreet, has a sample of 598. That's small and I'll therefore ignore the provincial numbers and focus on the country-wide ones.

According to Mainstreet, the Liberals received 35% of the ballots while the Tories were at 34%. The NDP was at only 13.9%, the Bloc at 6.8%, green at 6.4% and the People's Party at 2.9%.

Given that my projections put the Liberals around 30-31%, we can see a good turnout among Liberals. But this is to be expected, advance voting is for committed voters and the big parties have more of those.

David Akin for Global News had an interesting piece yesterday where he showed that the Liberals would have won way fewer seats based only on advance polls in 2015. Specifically, the Liberals would only have got 163 seats. While this can be interpreted as the Liberals didn't get their vote out during advance voting last time around, we also have to remember that the Liberals surged at the end of the campaign. Therefore, during the advance polls, this party wasn't as high as it was at the end. This is particularly true in Quebec. So having the Liberals at 163 seats during the advance polls is more of an indication that their turnout was actually good. My projections during that time had the Liberals actually in second position! And yes I know my projections in 2015 were fairly off, but with the correct vote percentages, my model wasn't that off. So even if we correct for the systematic mistake my model made, I'd have had the LPC at 140 seats around October 12th 2015, not 163. So to me, the 163 is a good indication the Liberals already got their vote out early last time around.

We thus shouldn't be surprised if we see the same pattern this year. At the very least, I wouldn't take the Mainstreet poll above as a clear indication that the polls are underestimating the Liberals. (Note: I asked David Akin if he could tell me what was the percentage of votes per party during the advance polls. This info is available but it's a ton of work to gather. I'll let you know and update this piece if he accepts to share). [Update: he shared, see at the end]

The other poll is from Angus-Reid. Among the 314 respondents who had already voted, they find that 34% voted CPC, 30% for the LPC, 19% for the NDP, 7% each for the Bloc and Green and 3% for the PPC.

We could average the two polls (keeping in mind that the Mainstreet one has a bigger sample size) and get:

CPC: 34.1%
LPC: 33.3%
NDP: 15.7%
Green: 6.6%
Bloc: 6.9%
PPC: 2.9%

Couple of remarks:

- It's close. The polls indicate a super close race and those two polls aren't changing that.

- Mainstreet (and IVR polls in general) have had the NDP lower than other polls (although it has mostly converged). It's interesting to see Mainstreet having the NDP lower among people who voted already too. My feeling is that there is a very strong house effect or mode effect.

- Both the CPC and LPC are doing better than their respective polling averages. That makes sense, as we discussed previously.

- Bloc is doing well. It seems the Bloc voters are committed and got out to vote. That's not always the case with the PQ in Quebec for instance.

- Green is not doing that great. We can clearly see that many Green voters are still unsure. With the NDP surging in the last week, my guess is many Green voters might want to keep their options open.

- I'm surprised by the PPC being so high. But maybe this is a different small parties. Its voters might well be few but super committed. Still, at 2.9% already, this is pretty good.

Mainstreet and Angus-Reid polls have not really agreed with each other during this election. The AR polls in particular have had a tendency to see the Tories more ahead. Alternatively, Mainstreet ahs been consistent in showing a large LPC lead in Ontario.

So instead of averaging the published numbers, let's compare the percentages among people who have voted to the polling numbers from each firm. For instance for Mainstreet, they had the Liberals around 30% last weekend. That means that the LPC would be at +5% (35%-30%) if we compare the polls and the advance voters. This is significant.

But using Angus-Reid, the Liberals are only beating their poll numbers by 1.6% (30%-28.4%), very similar to the 1.4% of the Conservatives.

So, who is right? Probably the average between the two, especially with such small samples. So here it is:


So the CPC and LPC are clearly getting their vote out. Is the LPC doing it better? In average it seems so, but it's entirely because Mainstreet found this to be true. Angus-Reid didn't. I really hope Akin will share the numbers so that we can compare the deltas here to the ones in 2015 (maybe the Liberals are just better at this game, always).

Smaller parties are doing worse. A clear indication that many of their voters are not fully decided yet (or that they don't have the machine to get the vote out).


[Update]

So David Akin shared the numbers:




So let's see, the Liberals were around 35% in the polls back then, that means the Liberals performed at +2.6 during the advance poll. Conservative were at 31%, so that means +2 for advance polls, NDP at -2.7 and Green at -1.6%.

All in all, we see the same pattern as this year with the two big parties locking in more votes than the polls would indicate at this point.

So I see no reason to see the table above as any indication that the polls are off or the Liberals underestimated. Quite the contrary, the numbers are in line with CPC and LPC being very close to each other.

Now, let's see if there is a late momentum for any party.

Projections update October 15th: the NDP getting more competitive in BC and the Prairies

While advance voting is over (and I discuss here, in French, why an increase in advance voting won't necessarily translates into a higher overall turnout; I also discuss how turnout can affect the projections), the polls continue to see a rise of the NDP. This morning Ipsos published a poll with the party of Jagmeet Singh up 5 points while Mainstreet's daily numbers -behind a paywall- show a smaller rise (it's logical, Ipsos last polled further back than Mainstreet).

While the conventional wisdom is that a rising NDP is bad for Trudeau, I find the answer to be more complicated. The NDP in particular is becoming more competitive in BC and the Prairies and it's the Conservatives that are hurt. Also the Green. This party already didn't have a great campaign, the NDP surging at the end is really not helping.

So anyway, here are the latest projections:


Map:



Riding by riding:

L'importance de la participation

L'importance de la participation
Le vote par anticipation est officiellement terminé. Nous n'avons pas encore les chiffres pour les 4 jours, mais Élection Canada a indiqué une hausse de 25% par rapport aux deux premiers jours en 2015. Est-ce que cela veut dire que l'on se dirige vers une participation encore plus élevée que le 68.3% de 2015? Cela serait remarquable vu que cette élection avait déjà vue une hausse importante par rapport au 61.1% de 2011.

Cependant, les choses sont probablement plus compliquées. Tout d'abord, il faut bien réaliser que le vote par anticipation est en hausse depuis des années. Les diverses agences électorales du pays ont rendu ce vote par anticipation de plus en plus accessible. Et il semble que les Canadiens soient de plus en plus intéressés par voter en avance.

Au niveau fédéral, la participation par anticipation ne représentait que 10.9% des électeurs en 2008. Cette proportion avait augmenté à 14.2% en 2011 avait de bondir à 20.8% en 2015! Une hausse majeure. Cependant la participation totale, bien qu'ayant augmenté, n'était passé que de 58.8% à 61.1% et finalement 68.3%. Ainsi on peut voir que la proportion de citoyens ayant décidé de voter par anticipation a doublé en 7 ans mais la participation générale n'a augmenté que de 16% (pas points de pourcentages).

On a vu la même chose au Québec. La participation par anticipation n'était que de 10.23% en 2007 mais elle était à 17.9% en 2018. Or, la participation générale a elle baissé de 71.28% à 66.45% si l'on compare les mêmes années. En proportion, cela veut dire que 14% des électeurs en 2007 l'avaient été par anticipation alors qu'il s'agissait de 26.9% en 2018.

On avait vu une massive hausse en CB en 2017 du nombre de votes par anticipation mais la participation générale n'avait que peu bougé par rapport à 2014.

On va attendre de voir les chiffres pour les 4 jours cette année mais il faut se souvenir de cette tendance à la hausse de la proportion d'électeurs qui choississent de voter par anticipation. Rien ne garantit une hausse de la participation générale.

Participation et projections

Pourquoi est-ce que je m'intéresse à cela? Car la forte hausse en 2015 avait en partie expliqué la grande victoire de Trudeau. Non seulement son parti avait fait mieux que les sondages (surtout au Québec), mais ses votes s'étaient traduits en davantage de sièges que prévus. En effet, même en utilisant les vrais pourcentages de vote de l'élection, mon modèle de l'époque n'aurait jamais prédit le PLC à 184. Le modèle l'avait plutôt à 170. Je ne suis pas le seul dans ce cas. Canadian Election Watch a aussi montré que même avec les vrais pourcentages, le modèle sous-estimait le PLC assez significativement en Ontario et CB. Eric Grenier, avant d'être 100% à la CBC, aurait prédit 154 sièges PLC avec les vrais pourcentages! Une sous-estimation massive.

Cela montre bien que quelque chose s'est passé en 2015. Le vote Libéral a changé, est devenu plus efficace. Et mes recherches montrent que la hausse de la participation peut en partie expliquer cela (il y a définitivement une corrélation entre la hausse de la participation et la hausse du PLC). Cette hausse avait été particulièrement importante chez les jeunes, une population qui soutenait le PLC massivement. Cette hausse avait ainsi permis au PLC de remporter des sièges inatendus.

Cela veut dire que si la participation de 2015 devait ne pas se répéter cette année, en particulier chez les jeunes, il se pourrait que les Libéraux perdent davantage de sièges que prévus. J'ai un modèle à l'essaie qui va tenir compte de cela, mais j'attends de voir les chiffres par anticipation avant de décider si je vais l'utiliser ou non.

Voilà, je mettrai à jour les projections ce matin, une fois que nous aurons les nouveaux Mainstreet et Nanos. Je m'attends à ce que cela reste une course très serrée.

Projections update, October 12th 2019

With Campaign Research publishing today, we pretty much had every single pollster providing new numbers in the last few days, with the exception of Abacus. In Quebec the Bloc is now ahead (in seats, not -yet?- in votes) while the NDP is rising in BC and Ontario.


This blog will be short, it's a simple projections update. No blah blah or analysis. So here are the numbers:


Map:



Riding by riding:

   Proj 12.10.2019 by bryanbreguet on Scribd

Projections du 11 octobre: Le Bloc premier au Québec

Techniquement le Bloc est premier à égalité, mais j'espère que vous allez tolérer la petite clickbait en bon français. Surtout que la tendance est définitivement positive pour le Bloc.

Après 2011, je ne suis pas sûr que je pensais jamais écrire sur une telle projection. Lors de cette élection, beaucoup pensait que c'était la mort du Bloc. Mais 2019 est une toute autre élection. Et avec Blanchet qui a gagné le premier débat et possiblement le 3e (donc 2e en français; Je pense perso que Bernier a gagné et Blanchet 2e, mais le PPC ne va pas faire mal au Bloc), je pense que les proejctions auront le Bloc seul en tête d'ici peu.

Voici les projections. Le texte and analyse continuent après.

Les projections:


La carte:


En détails:

   Proj 11.10.2019 by bryanbreguet on Scribd




La hausse du Bloc est impressionnante, tel que vous pouvez le voir. En termes de sièges, mon modèle a aussi commencé à faire de petits ajustements par régions au Québec. Les quelques sondages fournissant cette information ont montré un PLC très concentré dans la région de Montréal et un Bloc plus élevé que prévu en région. Cela fait changer de bord quelques comtés.



Si l'on regarde par région, on voit le Bloc dominant dans le 450 maintenant:


Alors que le PLC ne garderait qu'un siège dans la région de Québec.


Et oui Maxime Bernier est projeté gagnant.


Reste du Canada

Si le PLC a commencé sa chute au Québec depuis un petit bout de temps, il semble que ce soit maintenant aussi le cas dans le reste du Canada. Plusieurs sondages (Forum, Mainstreet, Dart aujourd'hui mais pas inclus dans ces projections car ils n'ont pas encore publié les chiffres régionaux) ont tous le PLC sous les 30%. Et c'est le NPD qui semble en hausse, probablement en partie en raison de la victoire de Singh lors du débat en anglais.

Cela nous donne une situation qui serait très, très instable. PLC+NPD+Verts ne donnerait pas une majorité! PCC+Bloc donnerait 169, soit une majorité mais sans speaker pour la Chambre. Absolument aucune idée qui serait Premier Minister et qui pourrait passer un vote de confiance. Ce serait très probablement un parlement très court avec une nouvelle élection dans l'année.

[Sondage après débat] Qui a remporté le débat des chefs?

[Sondage après débat] Qui a remporté le débat des chefs?
Vous savez comment ça fonctionne. Deux questions.


Qui a remporté le débat des chefs?
Justin Trudeau
Andrew Scheer
Jagmeet Singh
Yves-Fançois Blanchet
Maxime Bernier
Elizabeth May
Aucun
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Si l'élection était demain, pour qui voteriez-vous?
Le Parti Libéral
Le Parti Conservateur
le NPD
Le Bloc Québécois
Le Parti Vert
Le Parti Populaire
Un autre parti

Projections update, October 10th: It's starting to move!

Are people finally paying attention? Did the French (TVA) and English debates finally change things? With Blanchet winning the former and Singh the latter, it does seem to have shaken things up. It's especially obvious in Quebec where we now have polls putting the Bloc above 30% and ahead of the Liberals, but it'll likely affect the ROC soon.

The projections have, maybe surprisingly, moved very little. Today's polls are actually not bad for the Liberals because both Nanos and Mainstreet give this party a good lead in Ontario and Nanos still sees the Grits well ahead in La Belle Province. I believe Nanos to be dead wrong in Quebec but I can't let my subjective opinion influence which poll is included.

Still for Quebec, while Forum, Leger and Mainstreet all see a massive rise of the Bloc and decline of the LPC, Nanos, Ipsos and Innovative released numbers fairly recently with the Liberals still ahead. Given that I don't want to only include the polls published in the last two days, my polling average in Quebec hasn't moved as much as you may think. I truly believe the projections will change dramatically in the next few days. In the meantime, don't hesitate to use the simulator to make your own projections.

Before moving onto the numbers, here's how different the numbers in Quebec are between Nanos and Mainstreet (the numbers of this morning). If I only use Nanos, I get 53 seats LPC, 11 Bloc. With only Mainstreet, this is 24 LPC, 40 Bloc!

Projections:



Map:



Riding by riding:

   Proj 10.10.2019 by bryanbreguet on Scribd



Jagmeet Singh won the English debate

I think we can now call it: Jagmeet Singh won the English leaders' debate on Monday. What evidence am I basing this call on? The following:

1) Innovative poll

Singh is delcared winner by 27% of respondent while Scheer is at 17% and Trudeau at 15%. Given that the NDP is polling at around 12-13%, that means Singh convinced many people outside of his party. Innovative actually shows that explicitly. Indeed, while Liberals voters chose Trudeau as best performer at 34%, Singh is just behind at 25%. Given that people always act partisan when judging leaders' performances, being at 25% is a huge sign the NDP leader won.

Singh is also seen as the winner by 20% of Green voters, while May only gets the vote of 11% a pretty shocking result.

2) The Global News live sentiments during the debate.

I already mentioned it in my post yesterday but Singh is the only leader with a net positive rating after the 2 hours debate.

3) Leger poll

29% for Singh, 22% for Scheer and 20% for Trudeau. There as well Singh is the only scoring above his party.

4) My own poll

Yes my audience is skewed but if you compare the number of people declaring Singh as winner (27%) to the number of people voting for the NDP (16%), you see Singh performing above expectations. While Trudeau is below (15% versus 18%). Scheer is doing very well too (16% winner versus 10% voting intentions).

So literally every single piece of data we have puts Singh as the winner. We can argue on the magnitude of the win, but I don't think we can argue he won. We can also debate the impact of this win on the voting intentions.

I also believe subjective readings from pundits put him ahead (well except for Thomas Mulcair but that seemed to be basic pettiness). For instance here is Angus Reid, the pollster.




Finally, if you look at Google Trends, you see Singh clearly generating interest, to the point where he caught up to Trudeau after the debate.



We have also started seeing a rise for the NDP in some polls (Mainstreet, Leger) and other pollsters have mentioned finally seeing things moving in favour of the NDP. Which at least lines up with Singh having won the debate.

Projections update, October 8th 2019

Nanos, Mainstreet, Innovative and Ipsos all published new numbers during the last two days. Overall the numbers are still very stable with the exception of Quebec where the Bloc is clearly rising and the Conservatives falling.

The Liberals have taken a small lead in the popular vote, mostly thanks to the drop of the CPC in Quebec but also thanks to some strong numbers in BC (where they now lead as well).

Will we finally see some movements after a month of stability? That's not impossible. Blanchet clearly won the french debate on TVA while Scheer lost it and it changed things in Quebec. I personally believe Singh won the English debate last night and that Trudeau lost it. Preliminary data and analysis from my own non-scientific polls confirmed this.

Of course such a poll isn't scientific but it worked very well to identify the winner and loser in the French debate. Both Abacus and Innovative confirmed my findings. As for the English debate, Ipsos and Global had the same qualitative result: Singh performed best.

Source: https://globalnews.ca/news/6001339/live-blog-english-federal-leaders-debate/?utm_source=%40globalnews&utm_medium=Twitter

So anyway, here are the projections. I don't think the situation is fundamentally different. Scheer is still essentially a few points in the GTA away from winning. Although he can't afford to drop in BC. As for Trudeau, I think his lead is more precarious than it looks because I believe the Bloc is higher than the polling average. This party is "only" at 25% because of Nanos and some older polls still included. So I believe the Bloc is likely to cost the Liberals many seats and they'll fall below 40 very soon.

Projections:



Map:



Riding by riding:

   Proj 08.10.2019 by bryanbreguet on Scribd

[Post debate poll] Who won the English leaders' debate?

[Post debate poll] Who won the English leaders' debate?
You know how it works. Two questions. Thanks for your participation.

Who won the English leaders' debate?
Justin Trudeau
Andrew Scheer
Jagmeet Singh
Elizabeth May
Yves-François Blanchet
Maxime Bernier
None
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If the election were tomorrow, who would you vote for?
Liberal Party of Justin Trudeau
Conservative Party of Andrew Scheer
NDP of Jagmeet Singh
Green Party of Elizabeth May
Bloc Quebecois of Yves-François Blanchet
People's Party of Maxime Bernier
Another party