Projections update October 3rd: Liberals behind in votes, ahead in seats

Another day, another projection very similar to the last. This is what happens when the polling averages have barely moved all election long.

So the situation today is essentially the same: it's a close race between the Conservatives and Liberals, with the former likely to win the popular vote while the latter would likely win more seats thanks to Quebec and Ontario.

Alright, here are all the numbers you're looking for. After them I provide a short analysis of the uncertainty that exists.

Map. The numbers are the projections for, in order, the CPC, LPC, NDP, Green and Bloc.

Riding by riding projections:

   Proj 03.10.2019 by bryanbreguet on Scribd


I still haven't finished my simulations (sorry I'm lazy) but it doesn't mean we can't talk about the ridings that will decide this election.

There are swing ridings everywhere, but I'm focusing on regions where a group of them could all switch the same way. That means looking at the Montreal and Toronto suburbs.

The 450 (aka the grand Montreal)

This is where the Bloc can hurt the Liberals. Right now the pattern of my projections is for the Bloc to retake the ridings that were won by the NDP in 2015. It's especially visible on the south shore, including Beloeil-Chambly where Yves-François Blanchet, the leader of the Bloc, is running. A new Mainstreet poll today put him ahead there while the same firm had him behind a month ago (the projections have had him winning for a while because of the leader bonus - and with his performance at the first French debate, there is little doubt he'll win).

So which ridings could still flip? Thérèse-de-Blainville on the north shore is a likely candidate, as well as Saint-Jean and Longueuil-Charlemoyne on the south shores. On the island, Hochelaga should be a close race as well as Rosemont (the only hope for the NDP; We are supposed to get a riding poll soon).

Beyond this, this seems fairly safe. But if the Liberals are underestimated in Quebec, all the light blue ridings above could well turn red and that would help Trudeau a lot in his hope of a second majority.

Elsewhere in Quebec, the Liberals will have to defend two seats in Quebec city (Quebec and Louis-Hébert). The Conservatives seem locally very strong but Scheer's French is most likely too lacking for him to boost his party enough to steal them. His performance at the first debate was really weak while Trudeau held his own.

The 905 (aka the GTA)

This is where Andrew Scheer will either win or lose. This is the region he needs to make gains. And right now the polls show him competitive but falling short.

See the pale red ridings north of Toronto? The region of Vaughan and Markham. Pretty much every single one of those rdings are in play. Almost nothing safe for either party. Then in the west, we see the battleground of Oakville.

The Tories need a boost of a few points to win there. They either need the LPC-CPC gap to decrease province-wide (like instead of being down by 5-6 points, he should be down by 3-4) or to increase specifically in the 905. As I've said, both the provincial and ridings poll do NOT show this to be the case so far, but it's close enough that we can't exclude a blue wave in the GTA.

If this blue wave were to happen, we are talking of around 10 ridings. That would be huge. That would likely be enough to at least put Scheer ahead in seats overall with a plurality. I maintain that if Andrew Scheer finishes first in votes and seats and he's close enough to 169 (anything over 150 or 155), that he becomes Prime Minister. Yes I know Trudeau would still be PM after the election and would need to be defeated, but I don't see him surviving if he's in the low 140s in seats. Especially not with the NDP polling so low and potentially heading for a disaster number of seats.

Beyond these two regions, the Conservatives can win a few ridings here and there. I personally believe that BC could end up being the surprise and provide the CPC a lot of gains. This is the one big province where the CPC is polling well and consistently. And where they have increased since the election started.

So overall we see that there is a path to victory for Scheer. But this is a fairly narrow one. and this hasn't changed for weeks. He better hopes to do better in the English debate than he did in the French one otherwise he might end up winning big on the 21st but still falling short of defeating Trudeau.