April 6th: New projections. Majority slipping away from the Tories

With a couple of newly released polls from Nanos, Ekos and Harris-Decima in the last few days, it is time for a major update to the seats projections. These new polls don't agree on everything (some show a double-digit lead for the Conservatives, some only a 7-points one), but they usually agree on something: the trend in Ontario. It seems the Conservatives are losing ground on this province. They are still first of course, but the lead is now closer to 5-6 points (even closer in some recent polls), as opposed to 10-points and more at the beginning of the election. What this means in terms of seats is naturally that the majority is slipping away from the Conservatives. They are still projected to secure a stronger minority than currently, and a majority is definitely a possibility given the number of clsoe races, but the trend is not going up for this party. They would need to win 23 out of 31 close races, a really high percentages of victories.

For the Liberals, they seem to have gone up in the Atlantic and as I've said, in Ontario. The last Ekos poll also shows them quite high in Quebec, but numbers are a little bit off in this province with the Bloc at only 28%. So I wouldn't trust these numbers too much. Nevertheless, Michael Ignatieff is still very far from even dreaming of forming the government. Best case scenario seems to bring Harper to another minority, and a smaller one than in 2008. What would that mean for the next House of Commons? I have no idea. Seriously, with a coalition all but ruled out, it seems that we would get the same minority government as before. I always wonder what would be considered as a loss or a win for Ignatieff. A Conservatives majority would sure send him back to Harvard, but how many gains does he need over Stephane Dion's results in order to claim some kind of victory?

The NDP is slightly going down, even thought this party is resilient as far as seats are concerned. Thanks to a large increase in Quebec, Jack Layton could get another MP from this province. That would already be quite an achievement. They are projected to win 11 out of 16 close races, a number a little bit too high. If you have an election pool, I would suggest to put the NDP around 32 seats, not 35.

The Greens don't have any projected MP, nor do they even have a close race. Even May would fall short. And since it seems she definitely won't be part of the debates, the potential for grotwh isn't big for this party.

Finally, the Bloc is down a little bit and would lose a couple of seats, largely due to the increase of the NDP and the Liberals.

The riding-by-riding projections are available here.

This week, my article in the national post will be about the GTA and Vancouver, in particular: can the Tories really get new MPs there. It will be available on Friday, like last week.