Jagmeet Singh won the English debate

I think we can now call it: Jagmeet Singh won the English leaders' debate on Monday. What evidence am I basing this call on? The following:

1) Innovative poll

Singh is delcared winner by 27% of respondent while Scheer is at 17% and Trudeau at 15%. Given that the NDP is polling at around 12-13%, that means Singh convinced many people outside of his party. Innovative actually shows that explicitly. Indeed, while Liberals voters chose Trudeau as best performer at 34%, Singh is just behind at 25%. Given that people always act partisan when judging leaders' performances, being at 25% is a huge sign the NDP leader won.

Singh is also seen as the winner by 20% of Green voters, while May only gets the vote of 11% a pretty shocking result.

2) The Global News live sentiments during the debate.

I already mentioned it in my post yesterday but Singh is the only leader with a net positive rating after the 2 hours debate.

3) Leger poll

29% for Singh, 22% for Scheer and 20% for Trudeau. There as well Singh is the only scoring above his party.

4) My own poll

Yes my audience is skewed but if you compare the number of people declaring Singh as winner (27%) to the number of people voting for the NDP (16%), you see Singh performing above expectations. While Trudeau is below (15% versus 18%). Scheer is doing very well too (16% winner versus 10% voting intentions).

So literally every single piece of data we have puts Singh as the winner. We can argue on the magnitude of the win, but I don't think we can argue he won. We can also debate the impact of this win on the voting intentions.

I also believe subjective readings from pundits put him ahead (well except for Thomas Mulcair but that seemed to be basic pettiness). For instance here is Angus Reid, the pollster.




Finally, if you look at Google Trends, you see Singh clearly generating interest, to the point where he caught up to Trudeau after the debate.



We have also started seeing a rise for the NDP in some polls (Mainstreet, Leger) and other pollsters have mentioned finally seeing things moving in favour of the NDP. Which at least lines up with Singh having won the debate.

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