Projections update October 15th: the NDP getting more competitive in BC and the Prairies

While advance voting is over (and I discuss here, in French, why an increase in advance voting won't necessarily translates into a higher overall turnout; I also discuss how turnout can affect the projections), the polls continue to see a rise of the NDP. This morning Ipsos published a poll with the party of Jagmeet Singh up 5 points while Mainstreet's daily numbers -behind a paywall- show a smaller rise (it's logical, Ipsos last polled further back than Mainstreet).

While the conventional wisdom is that a rising NDP is bad for Trudeau, I find the answer to be more complicated. The NDP in particular is becoming more competitive in BC and the Prairies and it's the Conservatives that are hurt. Also the Green. This party already didn't have a great campaign, the NDP surging at the end is really not helping.

So anyway, here are the latest projections:


Map:



Riding by riding:

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