Performance of the polls for the 2015 federal election

Well, what a Liberal wave! Even the most optimistic projections didn't have the Liberals over 180. It wasn't a very good night for me (in terms of projections, not saying anything about the result itself) and I'll have to look into it. But it doesn't look good, there is no way around it.

When I wrote my final projections analysis, I said that while the poll average was showing a Liberal minority, they were essentially three possible sources of error or uncertainty. 1) Is the last minute momentum for the Liberals (seen in the very last Forum and Nanos) as well as the collapse of the NDP real? It turned out it was, especially in Quebec 2) Will the Conservative be underestimated? They were, slightly (one of the few successes for me last night!) and 3) What about Quebec? The race was so tight that pretty much anything could happen. And what happened is a collapse of the NDP.

For now, let's look at the polls and how close they were. Some did really well, others were quite off.

I calculated the average total absolute deviation. For each party, you take the absolute deviation as the official results minus the voting intentions in the polls, you sum it over the five parties and you average. I also calculated how many parties were within the margins of error for each poll. This is indicated by the color.

As we can see, the averages (adjusted or not) did better than most of the polls except the very last two. This is quite rare that the average doesn't do significantly better than the polls and this is really because of what appears to be a last minute collapse of the NDP with its voters going to the Liberals. By the way, my adjusted average had the Liberals slightly too low, but notice there are the same (or partially the same) Nanos poll twice here. If we count it once, the unadjusted was 37.1 and I was really close. My adjustments were really to boost the CPC a little bit and to decrease the Green and Bloc. All three were going in the right direction and made the adjusted average better.

I admit I'm usually skeptical of such last minute trends but it seemed to have been the case yesterday. Notice however that Nanos didn't have the NDP 10 points behind the Liberals in Quebec in its last poll. But I'll add the provincial comparisons later.

So bottom line, the very last polls got it right. Nanos got all five parties within the margins of error, although these were pretty wide given the small sample size. Still, very impressive. Forum did also very well and I hope it'll finally stop people from always thinking they are a bad firm. Forum also got most of the provincial numbers right, but I'll add to this later.

By the way, Mainstreet did well for the average total error but terrible for the number of parties within the margins of error. This is because of the insane sample size they had.

So, should we always only use last minute polls? I don't know. It's very risky to base the analysis entirely on 1 or 2 polls with small sample sizes. But it would have worked a lot better yesterday. Although Quebec, one of the biggest surprises of the night, would still not have been right as even last minute polls had the NDP much closer to the Liberals than what happened.

So polls did pretty well yesterday, at least at the national level. However, it shows that even small deviations (like for the NDP) can have dramatic impacts on the seat projections. You get one province wrong (like Quebec) and you are off by 20 seats.

I'll add later this week the analysis by province.

The 58 ridings that will decide the election

The 58 ridings that will decide the election
Here is the list of ridings where there is uncertainty. Specifically, I defined them as ridings where the winner was projected with less than 70% chance of winning. So that includes all the 2, 3 or 4-way races out there. And by experience, once your chances are above 70%, the model makes few mistakes (logically, duh).

There are 58 of them. As you can see, in most of the ridings, there is little to no uncertainty.

You can find them here or below.

Projections finales et une analyse du Québec

En ce lundi 19 octobre, les Canadiens vont très probablement élire un gouvernement Libéral minoritaire. Il y a cependant assez d'incertitude pour que d'autres scénarios soient possibles, tel qu'une majorité Libérale ou une minorité Conservatrice.

Je ne compte pas ici faire un copier-coller de mon article en anglais. Je vais plutôt me concentrer sur le Québec. Sachez simplement qu'une minorité Libéral est de loin le scénario le plus probable. Viennent ensuite une minorité Conservatrice (environ 18% de chances) et une majorité Libérale (environ 10%, bien que cela pourrait être davantage si vous croyez les sondages de dernière minute indiquant une tendance favorable aux Libéraux).

Intentions de vote; Projections de sièges avec intervalles de confiance à 95%; Chances de remporter le plus de sièges

Les projections détaillées sont disponible ici ou ci-dessous (Scribd est sympa sur un ordi mais terrible sur un cellulaire ou appareil mobile)

Le Québec est maintenant une course à 4. Les Néo-Démocrates sont favoris pour remporter le plus de sièges (58% de chances que cela arrive) mais les Libéraux ont leur chances. Tout comme, en théorie, les Conservateurs et le Bloc. Cependant, pour ces deux partis, les chances sont vraiment minces et demanderaient des erreurs majeures des sondages.

Les sondages n'arrivaient pas vraiment à se décider au Québec. Certains sondages ont le PLC devant à plus de 30% et le NPD 2e à seulement 25%, alors que c'est l'inverse pour d'autres. Pour les Conservateurs et le Bloc, les sondagent alternaient entre 17% et 24%! Tout cela fait en sorte que le Québec est relativement imprévisible. À l'inverse, mon modèle avec coefficients régionaux marche en général mieux au Québec qu'ailleurs.

Le Bloc va très probablement faire des gains par rapport à 2011 tout en récoltant moins de votes. Le mode de scrutin et la lourde chute du NPD engendrent ce résultat. Gilles Duceppe est très proche dans son comté, mais il n'est pas favori.

Le graphique ci-dessous vous montre pas mal tous les scénarios possibles si l'on tient compte de l'incertitude des sondages ainsi que du mode de scrutin. Le premier histogramme vous montre la distribution des sièges pour chaque parti alors que le second illustre le nombre de circonscriptions en fonction des chances de gagner.

Comme vous pouvez le voir, les distributions s'entrelacent beaucoup. Les Conservateurs sont très concentrés alors que le NPD et PLC sont les plus dispersés. Pour le Bloc, la soirée peut se terminer en beauté avec 20 sièges ou en catastrophe avec zéro! Remarquez les courbes PLC et NPD pas mal plates et ainsi ayant beaucoup d'incertitude.

Ici on voit la concentration du vote Libéral et Conservateur. Ces deux partis ont en effet pas mal de comtés assurés (alors que le NPD n'a en fait aucun comté assuré à 100%, ce qui était impensable il n'y a que 4 semaines de cela), mais à l'inverse, le PLC et PCC ont moins de sièges probables.

Au final, il se peut que le NPD bénéficie du mode de scrutin pour une fois (il en avait déjà profité en 2011 au Québec mais ce pourrait être encore plus visible lundi soir). Personellement, je crois que Thomas Mulcair joue sa tête au Québec. Si son parti sauve 35-40 sièges, cela pourrait être suffisant pour conserver son poste. Mais s'il devait perdre "sa" province, je suis sûr que sa position serait très précaire.

Final projections for the Federal Election 2015: Liberal minority, surprises possible

After the longest campaign in Canadian history, it appears voters have made their choice and will elect a Liberal minority on Monday. There is however enough uncertainty for a surprise to happen, whether it's a Conservative minority or a Liberal majority.

This will be a very long post. The first part is the summary and then you have the detailed analysis. So for those who don't like to read, here are the final projections.

Voting intentions; Seat projections with 95% confidence intervals; Chances of winning the most seats

These projections are really my best guess for tomorrow. Given past election results, the multitude of national and riding polls and how accurate polls can be, I get that Justin Trudeau has about a 82% chance of becoming the next Prime Minister. I should probably phrase it more as "winning the most seats", but it'll ultimately be the same.

So another minority, but most likely a stable one for a while as both the Conservative (for sure) and the NDP (I predict it'll be the case) will be looking for new leaders. I think for Thomas Mulcair, it depends on the extent of the loss tomorrow. 72 seats isn't too bad, especially if they keep Quebec. But it could also get ugly. According to polls, the NDP is actually down in every single province or region!

You have the riding by riding projections (with chances of winning for each candidate) below. You can either click here or use the Scribd thingy (if you are on mobile, avoid Scribd at all cost).

All in all, the big picture take-away from these numbers is that a Liberal minority is by far the most likely outcome that can occur tomorrow. But odds show a Conservative minority is possible as well as a Liberal majority. I know it sounds like I'm trying to cover every possible scenario so that I'll at least have the correct one, but it's more about putting odds on those scenarios. The same way that when you go to the casino, you know you can win, but you also want to know how likely you are to become rich.

Remember that polls and projections have a lot of uncertainty. It's important to reflect this uncertainty the best possible way. Still, don't get me wrong, anything but a Liberal minority tomorrow would be a big surprise and a punch to pollsters and people making projections like me.

If you are interested in more details and analysis, then please keep reading.

Conservatives underestimated?

Still, it's far from a sure thing. How is that? Well first of all, I slightly adjust the polls to account for the likely underestimation of the incumbent, This is a phenomenon we have observed in multiple elections, including the last 3 federal ones. You can also see this as accounting for the so-called "shy tory" effect where people are too embarrassed to admit they'll vote Conservative (what might have happened in the UK earlier this year). Additionally, we need to remember the Tories usually do better among older demographics and they tend to vote more (although Ekos and Forum actually show the Liberals ahead in every age group).

My adjustments are relatively small and boost the Tories by 1.5 points compared to a simple poll average. They are definitely smaller than the adjustments of others or what we've seen from Angus Reid with the Likely Voters adjustments. Is it a good assumption or should I go with the 3 points of last time? Or maybe even more as Conservative voters might feel even less likely to admit who they are voting for. Ekos for instance note that the Conservatives are lower in phone polls with live interviewers (aka a human person) versus automated phone calls. At the end of the day, this is the part where this becomes more of a guess than anything else.

Another illustration of the possible underestimation of the Tories come from the numbers among people who voted in advance. Ekos actually show the Conservatives ahead while Angus see them neck and neck. When I looked at patterns between the turnout and other variables, I didn't find much. Abacus also concludes that people who voted by anticipation do not significantly differ from others. Still, it shows that even though these advanced polls took place right when the Liberals were surging, the Tories were still in the game. As I said before, Liberal supporters need to remain cautious, their party hasn't won yet.

All in all, I'm pretty convinced the Tories are indeed underestimated. But by how much? Well your guess could be as good as mine. I think whatever boost they'll enjoy could ultimately be canceled out by the last minute momentum of the Liberals and the possible switch of some NDP voters (see below).

However, it's really important to realize that if the polls are underestimating the Conservatives as much as they did in 2011 (especially in Ontario), then Stephen Harper could well win more seats tomorrow. This is a possibility we need to acknowledge.


The chances of a Liberal majority are actually smaller than of a Conservative minority. That should put things in perspective. Yes it's possible and last minute, one-day polls of Forum for instance show the trend is in favour of the Liberals, but the average doesn't. Still, if we allow for the possibility that the Conservatives will be underestimated, we need to do it for the Liberals as well. In order to win 169 seats and more, Justin Trudeau would need to finish first in Quebec in terms of votes, clean Ontario and win BC. Possible, but unlikely.

One thing for sure, the last minute trend was incredibly favourable to the Liberals. Nanos shows the Liberals increasing over the weekend, so does Forum and Ekos. So if you believe that one-day polls done during the weekend can accurately measure last minute shifts (I'm skeptical and prefer averaging over a couple of days; I also tend to think pollsters love using the last minute shift as an excuse when they're wrong), then you should actually prepare for a Liberal majority. Not that the Tories are collapsing, but the NDP sure is.

The exact chances of a majority depend on how we model uncertainty (see below for the technical discussion). It's between 3.2% and 17.9%. I thus went with the average, middle of the road scenario for the pdf above.

The reason I believe a majority is out of the question for the Liberals is because even the last minute polls don't show a much larger lead in Ontario. The surge seems to be coming from elsewhere. But Ontario is really the key to a majority for the Liberals.

Here below you have a graph representing the probability of a Liberal majority as a function of the lead (in percentage points) in Ontario. As you can see, the Liberals start having a chance around 15 or 16 points. Polls haven't shown the lead to be that wide in average. Of course, the Liberals could win Ontario by "only" 11 points and do better in Quebec and BC. I'm simply showing one of the key determinants here.

Vote splitting

One of the infamous issues of our electoral system where two parties can split the same vote and allow a third one to go through. It's often blown out of proportion because people assume that all the NDP voters would switch to the Liberals for instance when it's not that simple. I re-run the analysis I did the other day and with the final numbers, I get that vote splitting allows the Tories to win 35 seats. There a total of 64 ridings where the total of the NDP and Liberals votes is greater than the number of votes for the Conservatives, but only in 34 of those would a unique candidate actually defeats the Tory candidate. Still, it means that without vote splitting, the results would be:

CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc
Normal projections 120 137 72 1 8
Without vote splitting 85 165 79 1 8
Difference -35 28 7 0 0

It's a simulation and you can take from it whatever you want. It's possible that this issue will occur for the last time as both the NDP and Liberals want to change the electoral system (although they don,t currently agree on which system is better).

And now some remarks and analysis by topics.

1. The polls.

As usual for a federal election, we got a lot of polls. Every major firm provided numbers in this last week, some even multiple times over the weekend. Only Abacus strangely decided not to release final numbers.

These polls have shown a remarkable convergence. Even Ekos who had a tight race just two days ago ultimately showed the Liberals up by around 4 points. This is very similar to the latest numbers from Angus Reid. The rest, from Nanos, Leger to Forum (and others) all have the Liberals well ahead of the Tories. Not only is this true at the national level, it's true in the crucial Ontario where Justin Trudeau appeared to have taken the lead during the first week of October.

We also got a lot of riding polls. Some matched my projections exactly, some didn't. I had more success with polls from Forum and Mainstreet than the ones from Environics in general. When the differences were too important (and especially when they were confirmed by more than one poll), I adjusted the projections.

2. The story of this campaign

I covered this in details in my article yesterday for the Huffington Post.

3. A look at some province

The Atlantic provinces won't be the source of much uncertainty tomorrow. The Liberals should pretty much sweep the region. The Liberals will therefore take a very early lead in the seat count on your television (or Ipad, you crazy kids). There is really nothing much to say there. The Liberals have been ahead in this region the entire campaign and their lead actually increased.

Quebec is possibly the most unpredictable province. After weeks of dominance by the NDP (where, at some point, we wondered if the NDP would not be able to win over 70 seats there), the niqab happened and started the downward trend. Thomas Mulcair never managed to recover. As of tonight, we can't even be sure the New Democrats will finish first in Quebec, both in terms of votes and seats. The electoral system and the fact that the Bloc appears to be stuck at 20% or less in average means the NDP is likely to win the most seats though. The chances are 58% to be precise. The NDP could finish second in votes and still win more seats. Look at the detailed analysis in French. Note that technically, all four parties have a shot at winning Quebec! If polls have shown a convergences in Ontario, they definitely haven't in Quebec.

The Conservatives seem poised to at least make some gains in Quebec, thanks to the drop of the NDP and a small increase compared to 2011. It won't ultimately be enough to compensate the losses pretty much everywhere else.

As for the Bloc, well, this is kind of the wild card. Its confidence interval is quite wide (relatively) and, by being around 20%, is right at the threshold between winning many seats or losing them all. Even Gilles Duceppe isn't sure to win his riding.

Ontario is ultimately the reason Trudeau will likely become Prime Minister. If you look at the graph, you actually see the Tories increasing in most provinces over the last two weeks, except in Ontario. Not sure what happened there in early October but there was a sharp shift in the voting intentions.We moved from a tight race between the Tories and Grits to a situation where the Liberals were enjoying a comfortable lead. In this last week, the trend has been very constant and this is the main reason we don't think a majority is really likely for the Liberals.

The Prairies and Alberta are still Conservative in majority but the Liberals will definitely make gains there. This is especially possible in Manitoba and in cities in Edmonton. As the NDP was falling in Quebec and its chances were going away, it appears some voters switched to the Liberals in order to defeat Harper.

Finally, British Columbia is the other wild card of this election. The NDP was dominating it for the first couple of weeks but could end up third there. The Liberal vote might be too concentrated in Vancouver, so that the Tories should win this province. If the polls, somehow, end up being wrong in Ontario and the race is tight as we start getting the BC numbers, it'll mean we'll most likely have to wait until late before calling this election

4. Could the Conservatives win when almost 70% of the population don't support this government?

The Conservatives won a relatively surprising majority last time. I say surprising because polls and projections were mostly predicting a minority. But a 2-3 points underestimation nationally and a 3-4 one in Ontario allowed Stephen Harper to win his majority. He even won seats in Toronto, something that was definitely the biggest surprise of the night.

This time around, his support was always gonna be stable but limited. Stable because at barely over 30%, he only has the core Conservative voters left. This matches perfectly with the around 30% of people who like Stephen Harper, think he's doing a good job and don't want to change government. Limited because many voters really despise him by now and would go as far as voting strategically in order to defeat him and his party. The ceiling for the Tories has been low for a long time now.

Ultimately, the only way he was gonna win was by having the other two parties splitting each other. Such vote splitting still occurs in some ridings (see above), but the Liberals have managed to gather enough support around them (and/or the NDP collapsed enough) to win anyway.

Stephen Harper also wanted the voters to mostly think of the economy and not take a chance with the other guys. But it appears that values could play a bigger role this time around, as shown by the latest Ekos and Abacus polls. Plus, of course, the fact that 60-65% of people have consistently shown they wanted a change of government. If you think about it, it's still pretty surprising the Tories are even in this race and they can thank the electoral system for that.

5. Uncertainty

The chances for the Tories depend on how you model uncertainty. I get the probabilities by doing simulations where I randomize the vote intentions (to account for the possible errors of the polls) as well as the distribution of the vote (to account for the fact the electoral system doesn't translate votes into seats perfectly). The idea is really to see all the possible outcomes and how likely they are. 

So a good case scenario for a party is when it beats the polls and has an efficient vote. The question is whether we should add correlation across provinces. For instance, if the Liberals out-perform the polls in Atlantic, are they more likely to outperform them in Alberta? The answer isn't very clear, so I did both. Adding correlation means that a party could be fortunate and do better pretty much everywhere.

So I ran the simulations twice, once with correlation and once without. Without, I find the odds of a Conservative victory to at 10.6%. With, they increase to 25%.

Similarly, having more uncertainty means more extreme scenarios. For the Liberals, adding correlation (which could be interpreted as a last minute boost, most likely coming from the fact some NDP voters would switch) increases the chances of a majority from 3.2% to 17.9%

Ultimately, I believe the truth is somewhere in the middle and this is what the graphic above displays.

Also, my simulations have proven to work remarkably well at the riding level (and this part doesn't depend on cross-province correlation). After 4 elections using the model (BC 2013, Quebec 2014 - and 2012 retroactively, Ontario 2014 and Alberta 2015), here where it stands.

Projected chances of winning Actual win percentage
0% 0%
1-30% 11%
30-50% 45%
50-80% 57%
80-99% 89%
100% 100%

As you can see, it works. So if your favourite candidate is projected at 0% in my final projections, I'm sorry but the odds are that he or she will lose (note: because I round the numbers, some candidates appear at 0% but are not. If they are at like 0.5%, the pdf will at least show some color on top of the percentage). Similarly, anybody projected with 100% confidence level should win tomorrow.

Therefore, maybe a better way to look at the race tomorrow is to see how many ridings each party is guaranteed to win and how many close races there are.

First, let's see how many ridings are at exactly 100% certainty for each party:

Conservatives: 23
Liberals: 38 (17 in the Atlantic)

None for the NDP or the Bloc. For the NDP, this is pretty insane. Just a couple of weeks ago, this party had half the ridings in Quebec completely locked up. If people will likely remember this election as Trudeau's triumph, we should also remember it was Mulcair's spectacular failure.

How many ridings are at 0.0% and therefore completely out of reach?

CPC: 99
LPC: 25
NDP: 181
Green: 332 (so 3 ridings where they can win because these simulations don't include the territories)
Bloc: 25 (in Qc)

Let's this information sink for a moment: there are only 25 ridings where the Liberals have no chance at all. This is incredibly impressive and shows how widespread this party's support is.

Finally, for each party, the number of seats currently projected as a loss by less than 5 points.

CPC: 19
LPC: 31
NDP: 13
Bloc: 9

See for the Liberals, this means they could actually get quite a lot higher than my projections. It really depends if the last minute shift observed by some pollsters will translate into actual votes on Monday. More generally, here are the distributions of the chances of winning by parties.

The remarkable (or curious) convergence of polls

As we are awaiting the final numbers from Nanos, Ekos and possibly Forum (as well as Mainstreet), let's look at how similar poll numbers have been, both at the national level and in Ontario.

The graph below show you the last polls from each firm for the national numbers.

And in Ontario:

See how everybody agrees with each other? This is striking because not only would we expect slightly more variation because of sampling, but we also need to remember polling firms use very different methodologies (online, IVR, etc) that should have an impact on the results.

The standard deviation for the national numbers for Tories and Liberals are 1.18 and 1.54 points respectively. Given the sample sizes, this is actually not that unlikely. Notice however that Ekos contributes a lot to the general variance with the Liberals at "only" 34%. Remove Angus Reid as well and you get Leger, Ipsos, Nanos, Innovative, Mainstreet and Forum at exactly 37-38%! This is almost crazy to see so much convergence. Especially since a lot of these firms didn't agree so much earlier.

We even had two consecutive Forum polls with the exact same numbers, something pretty unheard from.

How does it compare to 2011 and 2008? In 2011, the standard deviation for the CPC numbers among the final polls was 3.12 points. It was 1.33 for the Liberals (who were much lower though). In 2008, it was 1.57 for the Tories and 2.13 for the Liberals. So polls do agree more this year than during the last two federal elections.

Is it a bad thing? Not necessarily. But it is a little bit weird. You almost wonder if you don't have a firm out there who had different numbers (like CPC way higher or Liberals at 40%) and they didn't publish anything. It happened in the UK election earlier this year as some pollsters had the Tories in majority territory and thought they were wrong.

The convergence is even more remarkable in Ontario.Standard deviations are only 1.9 for the Tories and 1.7 for the Liberals. Given the smaller sample sizes, we would definitely expect more variations there. Out of the last 8 polls (from different firms), 4 had the Tories exactly at 33%. Two at 34 and one at 32. Only Innovative, which is quite older now, had the Conservatives really off at 28%.

Don't get me wrong, I don't see this convergence as indicating polls are fake or wrong. Or they'll be making huge mistakes tomorrow. But if they do happen to be wrong tomorrow night, we'd have to look into how was it even possible for pollsters using different questions, methods and weights to agree so much with each other.

Vote splitting

Vote splitting
Even though polls seem to all show a significant Liberal lead (except Ekos), the "issue" of vote splitting still exists. There still are two parties (NDP and Liberals) splitting essentially the same "Don't want to vote for Harper" electorate. It doesn't mean these two parties are identical or should merge, it simply is a reality of the electoral system. After all, the Conservatives are still in this race, albeit with lower odds, despite an overwhelming majority of Canadians not satisfied and wanting change.

I already did the analysis a couple of weeks ago, but the Liberals' surge of the last two weeks requires me to do it again. Here's how I proceeded. First of all, I gathered the second choices in multiple polls. They don't all provide this information but Nanos (every day), Ekos (sometimes) and Leger did in their recent polls. I then averaged these second choices and adjusted for the fact the Bloc can receive second votes in Quebec only. Here below you have the second choices for Quebec and the ROC.

                   1st choice --->
CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc
CPC 0.0 14.4 5.5 5.2 11.0
LPC 25.1 0.0 41.8 10.4 18.0
NDP 12.1 39.0 0.0 10.8 34.0
Green 6.9 11.0 11.0 0.0 10.0
Bloc 15.1 17.7 26.6 64.1 0.0
none 40.7 17.8 15.0 9.6 27.0

CPC 0.0 17.5 7.5 14.4
LPC 29.6 0.0 57.0 28.9
NDP 14.3 47.4 0.0 30.0
Green 8.2 13.4 15.1 0.0
None 48.0 21.6 20.4 26.7

I then used my most recent projections and look at how many ridings were in a situation with CPC first, but NDP+LPC would be greater. There are currently 60 ridings in this situation. This is less than the 72 of last months, but more than the 41 of 2011.

In these ridings, I thus removed the lower candidate between Liberals and New Democrats and I redistributed the votes (so no controversy in this exercise!). This means 17 Liberals candidates withdrawn and 43 NDP. See this as a what-if situation where the two parties would make a deal to run a unique candidate in some ridings.

Quite often people forget that even though the NDP and Liberals voters have each other as their main second choice, it's not 100%. Many voters would switch to a different party or not vote at all. Therefore, it's completely unrealistic to expect to regain all 60 ridings.

Doing so gives me the projections below

CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc
Normal projections 117 138 79 1 3
With unique candidate 83 164 87 1 3
Difference -34 26 8 0 0

The Liberals would be very close to a majority while the Conservatives would be third and with no chance of winning. Of course, as usual, I completely realize it could be very different if that were to happen in real life. In particular, the second choices used are very hypothetical and could be non representative of how the voters in these ridings (or in general really) would react. Moreover, I can't really see the NDP agreeing to withdraw 43 candidates while the Liberals only do the same 17 times. Still, I do my best with what I have.

Notice that out of the 60 ridings where theoretical vote splitting is occurring, only 34 would be reclaimed. So really, vote splitting is an "issue" in 34 ridings max right now.

The good news for people really worried about this and considering voting strategically? Both the Liberals and New Democrats want to change the electoral system. A proportional system would make vote splitting a non issue.