Manitoba 2023 simulator

Simply enter the voting intentions you want in the first table and see the results, riding by riding. You are responsible for entering percentages that make sense (i.e: each party must be between 0 and 100 at the maximum; the percentages must sum to 100 or slightly less in each province or region).

If you scroll at the bottom (past all the ridings), you can also make regional adjustments. For instance you could decide that the NDP is at (say) 40% province-wide but the party would increase in Winnpeg (enter +2) and decrease in the rest of Manitoba (enter minus 3). The model will then make the necessary adjustments. Just keep in mind that the overall percentages will be determined by the top-line numbers. If you only enter +2 in Winnipeg for the NDP, the model will then lower the NDP everywhere but Winnpeg to keep the overall % at 40% (the number you enter for the province-wide level of support). The regional adjustments are to correct for within province changes (one party getting its support more or less concentrated in one region since the last election).

The numbers here are NOT the current projections from this site, based on the latest polls. It's a simulator available to the public where everyone can enter his/her percentages. The model is likely to be modified until the actual election. The current model includes regional and incumbency effects, as well as taking account when a long term incumbent retired.

If you make projections using this model, please kindly mention the site or my Twitter handle (@2closetocall).