Projections update October 15th: the NDP getting more competitive in BC and the Prairies

While advance voting is over (and I discuss here, in French, why an increase in advance voting won't necessarily translates into a higher overall turnout; I also discuss how turnout can affect the projections), the polls continue to see a rise of the NDP. This morning Ipsos published a poll with the party of Jagmeet Singh up 5 points while Mainstreet's daily numbers -behind a paywall- show a smaller rise (it's logical, Ipsos last polled further back than Mainstreet).

While the conventional wisdom is that a rising NDP is bad for Trudeau, I find the answer to be more complicated. The NDP in particular is becoming more competitive in BC and the Prairies and it's the Conservatives that are hurt. Also the Green. This party already didn't have a great campaign, the NDP surging at the end is really not helping.

So anyway, here are the latest projections:


Map:



Riding by riding:

L'importance de la participation

L'importance de la participation
Le vote par anticipation est officiellement terminé. Nous n'avons pas encore les chiffres pour les 4 jours, mais Élection Canada a indiqué une hausse de 25% par rapport aux deux premiers jours en 2015. Est-ce que cela veut dire que l'on se dirige vers une participation encore plus élevée que le 68.3% de 2015? Cela serait remarquable vu que cette élection avait déjà vue une hausse importante par rapport au 61.1% de 2011.

Cependant, les choses sont probablement plus compliquées. Tout d'abord, il faut bien réaliser que le vote par anticipation est en hausse depuis des années. Les diverses agences électorales du pays ont rendu ce vote par anticipation de plus en plus accessible. Et il semble que les Canadiens soient de plus en plus intéressés par voter en avance.

Au niveau fédéral, la participation par anticipation ne représentait que 10.9% des électeurs en 2008. Cette proportion avait augmenté à 14.2% en 2011 avait de bondir à 20.8% en 2015! Une hausse majeure. Cependant la participation totale, bien qu'ayant augmenté, n'était passé que de 58.8% à 61.1% et finalement 68.3%. Ainsi on peut voir que la proportion de citoyens ayant décidé de voter par anticipation a doublé en 7 ans mais la participation générale n'a augmenté que de 16% (pas points de pourcentages).

On a vu la même chose au Québec. La participation par anticipation n'était que de 10.23% en 2007 mais elle était à 17.9% en 2018. Or, la participation générale a elle baissé de 71.28% à 66.45% si l'on compare les mêmes années. En proportion, cela veut dire que 14% des électeurs en 2007 l'avaient été par anticipation alors qu'il s'agissait de 26.9% en 2018.

On avait vu une massive hausse en CB en 2017 du nombre de votes par anticipation mais la participation générale n'avait que peu bougé par rapport à 2014.

On va attendre de voir les chiffres pour les 4 jours cette année mais il faut se souvenir de cette tendance à la hausse de la proportion d'électeurs qui choississent de voter par anticipation. Rien ne garantit une hausse de la participation générale.

Participation et projections

Pourquoi est-ce que je m'intéresse à cela? Car la forte hausse en 2015 avait en partie expliqué la grande victoire de Trudeau. Non seulement son parti avait fait mieux que les sondages (surtout au Québec), mais ses votes s'étaient traduits en davantage de sièges que prévus. En effet, même en utilisant les vrais pourcentages de vote de l'élection, mon modèle de l'époque n'aurait jamais prédit le PLC à 184. Le modèle l'avait plutôt à 170. Je ne suis pas le seul dans ce cas. Canadian Election Watch a aussi montré que même avec les vrais pourcentages, le modèle sous-estimait le PLC assez significativement en Ontario et CB. Eric Grenier, avant d'être 100% à la CBC, aurait prédit 154 sièges PLC avec les vrais pourcentages! Une sous-estimation massive.

Cela montre bien que quelque chose s'est passé en 2015. Le vote Libéral a changé, est devenu plus efficace. Et mes recherches montrent que la hausse de la participation peut en partie expliquer cela (il y a définitivement une corrélation entre la hausse de la participation et la hausse du PLC). Cette hausse avait été particulièrement importante chez les jeunes, une population qui soutenait le PLC massivement. Cette hausse avait ainsi permis au PLC de remporter des sièges inatendus.

Cela veut dire que si la participation de 2015 devait ne pas se répéter cette année, en particulier chez les jeunes, il se pourrait que les Libéraux perdent davantage de sièges que prévus. J'ai un modèle à l'essaie qui va tenir compte de cela, mais j'attends de voir les chiffres par anticipation avant de décider si je vais l'utiliser ou non.

Voilà, je mettrai à jour les projections ce matin, une fois que nous aurons les nouveaux Mainstreet et Nanos. Je m'attends à ce que cela reste une course très serrée.

Projections update, October 12th 2019

With Campaign Research publishing today, we pretty much had every single pollster providing new numbers in the last few days, with the exception of Abacus. In Quebec the Bloc is now ahead (in seats, not -yet?- in votes) while the NDP is rising in BC and Ontario.


This blog will be short, it's a simple projections update. No blah blah or analysis. So here are the numbers:


Map:



Riding by riding:

   Proj 12.10.2019 by bryanbreguet on Scribd

Projections du 11 octobre: Le Bloc premier au Québec

Techniquement le Bloc est premier à égalité, mais j'espère que vous allez tolérer la petite clickbait en bon français. Surtout que la tendance est définitivement positive pour le Bloc.

Après 2011, je ne suis pas sûr que je pensais jamais écrire sur une telle projection. Lors de cette élection, beaucoup pensait que c'était la mort du Bloc. Mais 2019 est une toute autre élection. Et avec Blanchet qui a gagné le premier débat et possiblement le 3e (donc 2e en français; Je pense perso que Bernier a gagné et Blanchet 2e, mais le PPC ne va pas faire mal au Bloc), je pense que les proejctions auront le Bloc seul en tête d'ici peu.

Voici les projections. Le texte and analyse continuent après.

Les projections:


La carte:


En détails:

   Proj 11.10.2019 by bryanbreguet on Scribd




La hausse du Bloc est impressionnante, tel que vous pouvez le voir. En termes de sièges, mon modèle a aussi commencé à faire de petits ajustements par régions au Québec. Les quelques sondages fournissant cette information ont montré un PLC très concentré dans la région de Montréal et un Bloc plus élevé que prévu en région. Cela fait changer de bord quelques comtés.



Si l'on regarde par région, on voit le Bloc dominant dans le 450 maintenant:


Alors que le PLC ne garderait qu'un siège dans la région de Québec.


Et oui Maxime Bernier est projeté gagnant.


Reste du Canada

Si le PLC a commencé sa chute au Québec depuis un petit bout de temps, il semble que ce soit maintenant aussi le cas dans le reste du Canada. Plusieurs sondages (Forum, Mainstreet, Dart aujourd'hui mais pas inclus dans ces projections car ils n'ont pas encore publié les chiffres régionaux) ont tous le PLC sous les 30%. Et c'est le NPD qui semble en hausse, probablement en partie en raison de la victoire de Singh lors du débat en anglais.

Cela nous donne une situation qui serait très, très instable. PLC+NPD+Verts ne donnerait pas une majorité! PCC+Bloc donnerait 169, soit une majorité mais sans speaker pour la Chambre. Absolument aucune idée qui serait Premier Minister et qui pourrait passer un vote de confiance. Ce serait très probablement un parlement très court avec une nouvelle élection dans l'année.

[Sondage après débat] Qui a remporté le débat des chefs?

[Sondage après débat] Qui a remporté le débat des chefs?
Vous savez comment ça fonctionne. Deux questions.


Qui a remporté le débat des chefs?
Justin Trudeau
Andrew Scheer
Jagmeet Singh
Yves-Fançois Blanchet
Maxime Bernier
Elizabeth May
Aucun
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Si l'élection était demain, pour qui voteriez-vous?
Le Parti Libéral
Le Parti Conservateur
le NPD
Le Bloc Québécois
Le Parti Vert
Le Parti Populaire
Un autre parti

Projections update, October 10th: It's starting to move!

Are people finally paying attention? Did the French (TVA) and English debates finally change things? With Blanchet winning the former and Singh the latter, it does seem to have shaken things up. It's especially obvious in Quebec where we now have polls putting the Bloc above 30% and ahead of the Liberals, but it'll likely affect the ROC soon.

The projections have, maybe surprisingly, moved very little. Today's polls are actually not bad for the Liberals because both Nanos and Mainstreet give this party a good lead in Ontario and Nanos still sees the Grits well ahead in La Belle Province. I believe Nanos to be dead wrong in Quebec but I can't let my subjective opinion influence which poll is included.

Still for Quebec, while Forum, Leger and Mainstreet all see a massive rise of the Bloc and decline of the LPC, Nanos, Ipsos and Innovative released numbers fairly recently with the Liberals still ahead. Given that I don't want to only include the polls published in the last two days, my polling average in Quebec hasn't moved as much as you may think. I truly believe the projections will change dramatically in the next few days. In the meantime, don't hesitate to use the simulator to make your own projections.

Before moving onto the numbers, here's how different the numbers in Quebec are between Nanos and Mainstreet (the numbers of this morning). If I only use Nanos, I get 53 seats LPC, 11 Bloc. With only Mainstreet, this is 24 LPC, 40 Bloc!

Projections:



Map:



Riding by riding:

   Proj 10.10.2019 by bryanbreguet on Scribd



Jagmeet Singh won the English debate

I think we can now call it: Jagmeet Singh won the English leaders' debate on Monday. What evidence am I basing this call on? The following:

1) Innovative poll

Singh is delcared winner by 27% of respondent while Scheer is at 17% and Trudeau at 15%. Given that the NDP is polling at around 12-13%, that means Singh convinced many people outside of his party. Innovative actually shows that explicitly. Indeed, while Liberals voters chose Trudeau as best performer at 34%, Singh is just behind at 25%. Given that people always act partisan when judging leaders' performances, being at 25% is a huge sign the NDP leader won.

Singh is also seen as the winner by 20% of Green voters, while May only gets the vote of 11% a pretty shocking result.

2) The Global News live sentiments during the debate.

I already mentioned it in my post yesterday but Singh is the only leader with a net positive rating after the 2 hours debate.

3) Leger poll

29% for Singh, 22% for Scheer and 20% for Trudeau. There as well Singh is the only scoring above his party.

4) My own poll

Yes my audience is skewed but if you compare the number of people declaring Singh as winner (27%) to the number of people voting for the NDP (16%), you see Singh performing above expectations. While Trudeau is below (15% versus 18%). Scheer is doing very well too (16% winner versus 10% voting intentions).

So literally every single piece of data we have puts Singh as the winner. We can argue on the magnitude of the win, but I don't think we can argue he won. We can also debate the impact of this win on the voting intentions.

I also believe subjective readings from pundits put him ahead (well except for Thomas Mulcair but that seemed to be basic pettiness). For instance here is Angus Reid, the pollster.




Finally, if you look at Google Trends, you see Singh clearly generating interest, to the point where he caught up to Trudeau after the debate.



We have also started seeing a rise for the NDP in some polls (Mainstreet, Leger) and other pollsters have mentioned finally seeing things moving in favour of the NDP. Which at least lines up with Singh having won the debate.

Projections update, October 8th 2019

Nanos, Mainstreet, Innovative and Ipsos all published new numbers during the last two days. Overall the numbers are still very stable with the exception of Quebec where the Bloc is clearly rising and the Conservatives falling.

The Liberals have taken a small lead in the popular vote, mostly thanks to the drop of the CPC in Quebec but also thanks to some strong numbers in BC (where they now lead as well).

Will we finally see some movements after a month of stability? That's not impossible. Blanchet clearly won the french debate on TVA while Scheer lost it and it changed things in Quebec. I personally believe Singh won the English debate last night and that Trudeau lost it. Preliminary data and analysis from my own non-scientific polls confirmed this.

Of course such a poll isn't scientific but it worked very well to identify the winner and loser in the French debate. Both Abacus and Innovative confirmed my findings. As for the English debate, Ipsos and Global had the same qualitative result: Singh performed best.

Source: https://globalnews.ca/news/6001339/live-blog-english-federal-leaders-debate/?utm_source=%40globalnews&utm_medium=Twitter

So anyway, here are the projections. I don't think the situation is fundamentally different. Scheer is still essentially a few points in the GTA away from winning. Although he can't afford to drop in BC. As for Trudeau, I think his lead is more precarious than it looks because I believe the Bloc is higher than the polling average. This party is "only" at 25% because of Nanos and some older polls still included. So I believe the Bloc is likely to cost the Liberals many seats and they'll fall below 40 very soon.

Projections:



Map:



Riding by riding:

   Proj 08.10.2019 by bryanbreguet on Scribd

[Post debate poll] Who won the English leaders' debate?

[Post debate poll] Who won the English leaders' debate?
You know how it works. Two questions. Thanks for your participation.

Who won the English leaders' debate?
Justin Trudeau
Andrew Scheer
Jagmeet Singh
Elizabeth May
Yves-François Blanchet
Maxime Bernier
None
Create a survey with PollMaker


If the election were tomorrow, who would you vote for?
Liberal Party of Justin Trudeau
Conservative Party of Andrew Scheer
NDP of Jagmeet Singh
Green Party of Elizabeth May
Bloc Quebecois of Yves-François Blanchet
People's Party of Maxime Bernier
Another party

In free fall in Quebec, Andrew Scheer needs a good performance tonight at the English debate

Finally, the leaders' debate with everybody, including Justin Trudeau! Tonight at 7PM Eastern time.  Beyond the obvious entertainment value for political nerds like me (or you, admit it), this debate is incredibly important for the Conservative leader Andrew Scheer.

Recent projections (note: I'll update soon) have the following situation: it's super close in votes but the Liberals likely have the edge in seats, mostly thanks to Quebec and Ontario. The Tories aren't far behind. A "simple" swing of a few points in the GTA could well be enough for them to finish first.

So why is this debate so important? Well first of all because Scheer definitely blew it in the French debate last week (the face à face TVA). Readers of my blog and Twitter feed clearly put Blanchet as winner with Trudeau close second (once you correct for the fact that my audience seems to be predominantly Bloc voters). A poll from Abacus yesterday confirmed those findings.

Scheer's performance was absolutely horrible. Yes the early topics weren't helping and yes French is (very clearly) not his first language (side note: I personally believe Scheer is not bilingual enough to be Prime Minister of this country, but whatever), but it doesn't excuse his performance.

We haven't had many polls in Quebec since the debate but we can look at the two daily trackers of Nanos and Mainstreet. Both had numbers yesterday that were collected entirely after the debate, numbers that can be compared to the polls right before.

Nanos has the CPC going from 20.88% to 11.99%! It's obviously based on small sample sizes but still. Mainstreet saw a decline from 19.3% to 15.3% (and that's with more decent sample sizes). Choose your term: collapse, free fall, etc.

The graph below will show you how dire the situation has become for the Tories in Quebec.


While dropping in Quebec is not the end of the world for the Conservatives (their few seats are fairly safe and they always had limited possible gains), they are starting to poll low enough that they should start being worried in a couple of safe seats. Also, it goes without saying that any hope for the Tories to make some very useful gains in Quebec are likely gone. Jonquière will be tough and Bernier would likely win in Beauce also.

The good news for Scheer is that the Bloc is rising. And rising fast according to some. Mainstreet had this party at 29% yesterday, barely behind the Liberals. Given the francophone votes, that would likely put the Bloc in first position in seats. So the Bloc is giving Scheer a gigantic gift by taking a ton of seats away from the Liberals (in the 450 and elsewhere). Now the Conservative leader needs to do his part: increase in Ontario. Major gains in other provinces seem fairly safe at this point (there could even be a lot from the Maritimes depending on vote efficiency) but Ontario is still lagging. It's absolutely stable but negative for the CPC. Scheer has no chance of becoming PM if his party continues to poll behind the LPC by 5 points or more in Canada's biggest province. So tonight's debate is maybe the last chance he'll have to change this situation.

Also, as a conclusion to this blog post. here are the voting intentions for the entire country over the last month. It's super stable! I understand the Nanos numbers have moved in favour of the Liberals in the last few days but those are based on small sample sizes. The reality is that there has been no upward or downward trend for the main two parties. Please keep this in mind and don't fall for the swing of one or two polls (yes I myself sometimes write about such changes, I'm aware of this). And yes, if you use a polynomial trend, you do see a small dip of the CPC in the last few days. This is entirely driven by the decline in Quebec.


The only two long term trends we have observed over the last months are:

-Bloc rising
-NDP rising (although IVR polls don't agree with online ones)

Enjoy the debate tonight! Remember to follow me on Twitter.

À la veille des débats, la course reste super serrée

Lundi soir aura finalement lieu le premier (et seul) débat en anglais de cette campagne avec le chef Libéral Justin Trudeau. Pour Andrew Scheer, cela pourrait bien représenter sa dernière chance de faire pencher la situation en sa faveur. Après un débat en français raté, le chef Conservateur se devra de faire mieux. Il court le risque de laisser filer cette élection et, possiblement, de permettre à Trudeau d'obtenir une 2e majorité. Car le chef Libéral n'est en effet pas si loin du chiffre magique de 169. Dans les faits, il se pourrait fort bien qu'il soit en terrain majoritaire actuellement.

La moyenne des sondages n'a pas vraiment changé. Nanos a eu un gros revirement de situation en 2 jours, passant de +2.3% pour le PCC à -3.6%! Mais un seul sondage ne suffit pas pour faire changer la moyenne, d'autant plus que Mainstreet continue plutôt de voir une égalité statistique.

Voici les projections:



La carte électorale:




Les projections par circonscription:

   Proj 05.10.2019 by bryanbreguet on Scribd


C'est vraiment serré. Mais les Libéraux ont l'avantage et davantage de façons de gagner. Le PLC peut encore rêver à 50+ sièges au Québec si les sondages le sous-estiment (ou surestiment le Bloc). En Ontario, certains sondages semblent indiquer une avance considérable du PLC. Les sondages par comté indiquent que les deux possibilités sont bien réelles.

Pour le PCC, le chemin du pouvoir est le suivant:

- Le Bloc confirme sa remontée et gagne 20 sièges au moins, forçant le PLC à 40 ou moins
- Une poussée dans le grand Toronto (GTA ou 905) lui permettant de changer un autre 10 sièges environ. On parle juste de quelques points ici.

Ces deux évènements doivent arriver pour que les Conservateurs se retrouvent au pouvoir. Et encore là, on parle vraisemblablement d'une minorité Conservatrive. Ce qui signifie que Scheer ne serait pas assuré de devenir Premier Ministre.

Projections update October 3rd: Liberals behind in votes, ahead in seats

Another day, another projection very similar to the last. This is what happens when the polling averages have barely moved all election long.

So the situation today is essentially the same: it's a close race between the Conservatives and Liberals, with the former likely to win the popular vote while the latter would likely win more seats thanks to Quebec and Ontario.

Alright, here are all the numbers you're looking for. After them I provide a short analysis of the uncertainty that exists.


Map. The numbers are the projections for, in order, the CPC, LPC, NDP, Green and Bloc.



Riding by riding projections:

   Proj 03.10.2019 by bryanbreguet on Scribd


Uncertainty

I still haven't finished my simulations (sorry I'm lazy) but it doesn't mean we can't talk about the ridings that will decide this election.

There are swing ridings everywhere, but I'm focusing on regions where a group of them could all switch the same way. That means looking at the Montreal and Toronto suburbs.

The 450 (aka the grand Montreal)


This is where the Bloc can hurt the Liberals. Right now the pattern of my projections is for the Bloc to retake the ridings that were won by the NDP in 2015. It's especially visible on the south shore, including Beloeil-Chambly where Yves-François Blanchet, the leader of the Bloc, is running. A new Mainstreet poll today put him ahead there while the same firm had him behind a month ago (the projections have had him winning for a while because of the leader bonus - and with his performance at the first French debate, there is little doubt he'll win).

So which ridings could still flip? Thérèse-de-Blainville on the north shore is a likely candidate, as well as Saint-Jean and Longueuil-Charlemoyne on the south shores. On the island, Hochelaga should be a close race as well as Rosemont (the only hope for the NDP; We are supposed to get a riding poll soon).

Beyond this, this seems fairly safe. But if the Liberals are underestimated in Quebec, all the light blue ridings above could well turn red and that would help Trudeau a lot in his hope of a second majority.

Elsewhere in Quebec, the Liberals will have to defend two seats in Quebec city (Quebec and Louis-Hébert). The Conservatives seem locally very strong but Scheer's French is most likely too lacking for him to boost his party enough to steal them. His performance at the first debate was really weak while Trudeau held his own.

The 905 (aka the GTA)

This is where Andrew Scheer will either win or lose. This is the region he needs to make gains. And right now the polls show him competitive but falling short.


See the pale red ridings north of Toronto? The region of Vaughan and Markham. Pretty much every single one of those rdings are in play. Almost nothing safe for either party. Then in the west, we see the battleground of Oakville.

The Tories need a boost of a few points to win there. They either need the LPC-CPC gap to decrease province-wide (like instead of being down by 5-6 points, he should be down by 3-4) or to increase specifically in the 905. As I've said, both the provincial and ridings poll do NOT show this to be the case so far, but it's close enough that we can't exclude a blue wave in the GTA.

If this blue wave were to happen, we are talking of around 10 ridings. That would be huge. That would likely be enough to at least put Scheer ahead in seats overall with a plurality. I maintain that if Andrew Scheer finishes first in votes and seats and he's close enough to 169 (anything over 150 or 155), that he becomes Prime Minister. Yes I know Trudeau would still be PM after the election and would need to be defeated, but I don't see him surviving if he's in the low 140s in seats. Especially not with the NDP polling so low and potentially heading for a disaster number of seats.

Beyond these two regions, the Conservatives can win a few ridings here and there. I personally believe that BC could end up being the surprise and provide the CPC a lot of gains. This is the one big province where the CPC is polling well and consistently. And where they have increased since the election started.

So overall we see that there is a path to victory for Scheer. But this is a fairly narrow one. and this hasn't changed for weeks. He better hopes to do better in the English debate than he did in the French one otherwise he might end up winning big on the 21st but still falling short of defeating Trudeau.

Yves-François Blanchet gagnant du Face à Face TVA?

Mon sondage maison et ainsi non scientifique est encore en cours mais la tendance a été claire depuis le début: les lecteurs de ce blogue considèrent qu'Yves-François Blanchet a remporté ce débat.

Comme à mon habitude j'ai crée mon indice du débat où je fais le ratio du pourcentage de gens qui déclarent un chef gagnant sur le pourcentage de gens qui voudraient voter pour son parti. L'idée est d'enlever le bias qui existe car la majorité des électeurs vont déclarer gagnant le chef du parti qu'ils soutiennent.

Par le passé un tel indice a toujours identifié les tendances à venir. Et oui je suis au courrant que mon audience sur ce blogue et Twitter est biaisée, mais le ratio devrait éliminer une bonne partie de ce biais (regardez les donnes du sondage. Si près de 60% déclarent voter Bloc, Blanchet est déclaré gagnant par plus de 70%). Par le passé, les résultats via mes sondages sur le site ont souvent été très proches de ceux obtenus via des sondages scientifiques. Je ferai une mise à jour si je vois des données sur ce débat dans les sondages publiés.


Bonne soirée pour Blanchet et le Bloc. Pas pire du tout pour Trudeau alors que Scheer a vécu une soirée difficile semble-t-il. Soit-dit en passant, les résultats du sondage sont en accord avec mon opinion personnelle.

Pour Scheer cependant, ne pas faire de gain au Québec n'est pas la fin du monde. Au contraire, un Bloc en progression pourrait faire tres mal au PLC et permettre au PCC de terminer premier à l'échelle du pays.

October 2nd: are we finally seeing some movement?

October 2nd: are we finally seeing some movement?
Note: no projections update today, see yesterday's post for the numbers. Also, remember that there is a French debate tonight.

Two days ago I was lamenting how boring this election had been, at least from the point of view of polling. I showed that, for the CPC for instance, the variations observed since the beginning of the campaign could be entirely explained by the sampling variations. In other words: no change in the underlying voting intentions.

But yesterday was a really good day for the Conservatives. First the daily tracker from Nanos put the CPC still ahead by 2.3 points. Similar to the previous days -although it was an increase of 1 point but this isn't significant- but the data regarding the preferred Prime Minister put Scheer ahead for the first time this election.



This is, at the very least, a symbolic turn.

Then Mainstreet's daily tracker moved from the CPC being down by 0.3pt to being ahead by 2.8pt!

It didn't stop there for the CPC. Ipsos' latest poll had this party at 37%, 3pt ahead of the Liberals (although that was actually a smaller lead than in the previous Ipsos poll). Finally, Angus-Reid published two polls. One was showing the swing in the 67 ridings won by less than 5% in 2015. The other was simply a normal nationwide poll. Both were showing essentially the same however: the CPC-LPC gap compared to 2015 improving by around 14-15 points (so from 7 down to 8 up). A poll that, if true, could maybe be good enough for a Conservative majority.

How good was yesterday for the Tories? If I only use those 4 polls (2 IVR, 2 online, so a nice mix), I'd get the following projections:

CPC: 149
LPC: 143
NDP: 21
Green: 4
Bloc: 20

That compares to 138-160 if I instead add the new polls to the average. So clearly the polls yesterday were good. Angus-Reid even had the Tories with the lead in Ontario, something that had only happened in one Dart poll 2 weeks ago.

It is obviously just four polls. But hey, if you are reading this blog on a daily basis, you expect some overreaction to what could ultimately be meaningless variations!

We'll see if Wednesday is as good for Scheer as Tuesday was. I'll likely update the projections and map tomorrow. In the meantime, I have updated the simulator with all the riding and local adjustment I have made so far. So have fun with it.