Projections update, October 10th: It's starting to move!

Are people finally paying attention? Did the French (TVA) and English debates finally change things? With Blanchet winning the former and Singh the latter, it does seem to have shaken things up. It's especially obvious in Quebec where we now have polls putting the Bloc above 30% and ahead of the Liberals, but it'll likely affect the ROC soon.

The projections have, maybe surprisingly, moved very little. Today's polls are actually not bad for the Liberals because both Nanos and Mainstreet give this party a good lead in Ontario and Nanos still sees the Grits well ahead in La Belle Province. I believe Nanos to be dead wrong in Quebec but I can't let my subjective opinion influence which poll is included.

Still for Quebec, while Forum, Leger and Mainstreet all see a massive rise of the Bloc and decline of the LPC, Nanos, Ipsos and Innovative released numbers fairly recently with the Liberals still ahead. Given that I don't want to only include the polls published in the last two days, my polling average in Quebec hasn't moved as much as you may think. I truly believe the projections will change dramatically in the next few days. In the meantime, don't hesitate to use the simulator to make your own projections.

Before moving onto the numbers, here's how different the numbers in Quebec are between Nanos and Mainstreet (the numbers of this morning). If I only use Nanos, I get 53 seats LPC, 11 Bloc. With only Mainstreet, this is 24 LPC, 40 Bloc!

Projections:



Map:



Riding by riding:

   Proj 10.10.2019 by bryanbreguet on Scribd



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