Projections update, September 8th: Close race with a slight edge for the Liberals

Right before the two official debates, here are the most up to date projections. They use all the polls published today, including the Leger, Ipsos and the regular Ekos/Mainstreet/Nanos.

For Trudeau, the only reason he's still ahead is thanks to Quebec and the drop of the Bloc. The Liberals aren't even up there, it's just that vote splitting and a stupid electoral system are helping the Liberals. Ontario is getting closer and if Leger is right with its 905 numbers, the current projections are likely underestimating the Tories. Atlantic is a mess but could be a source of many gains for O'Toole. Finally, BC is a complete 3-way race with so many races, each party could finish first.

The debates will be crucial. If O'Toole wants to have a chance of becoming Prime Minister, he needs to do better than during the first French debate.

Look at those confidence intervals (at 95%). A few points here and there could change everything. It is truly an unpredictable race. One might even say it's too close to call.


Full page map.

Detailed projections

Proj Canada 8 September 2021 by bryanbreguet on Scribd