Projections update, Sept. 15th: Liberals minority still heavily favored

A ton of polls over the last two days but no big changes to the projections. We are so close to 2019m in the big provinces (Quebec, Ontario) that there could be that many seats flipping.

Where is the uncertainty? Well Atlantic Canada seems to be breaking for the Liberals even more than before, which would be in line with the riding polls of Mainstreet -- Literally every single poll done there has had the Liberals ahead! Quebec still sees the Bloc climbing back onto the Liberals. With a vote that appears to be more urban than in 2019, that looks good for Blanchet to win the South Shore and Hochelaga.

Ontario is looking more and more like 2019 although the big increase of the PPC might add some canceling swings. For O'Toole, he has to make gains there or his entire strategy of putting the party at the center will not be tolerated by the base.

Finally BC is the one bright spot for the Conservatives, especially the riding polls. Liberals do appears to be in trouble there although you have enough variations between polls to make it officially a 3-way race.

Anyway, here are the projections.

It should likely look like this until the actual election. Which means the Liberals are heavily favored to win a minority. The next most likely outcome (so most likely 'surprise') would be a Tory minority and only after that a Liberal majority.


Full version here.

Detailed projections.

Proj Canada 15 September 2021 by bryanbreguet on Scribd