Projections update, august 31st: Liberals bounce back but majority still elusive

We finally got multiple polls from firms with online samples (Angus-Reid, Léger, Abacus and Research Co.). While Léger was quite favourable to the Tories (lead by 4 nationwide, ahead in Ontario, Bloc strong in Quebec), Abacus, Ekos and Research Co all had good Ontario numbers for the Liberals.

The projections have shifted quite a lot but it's a little bit misleading. The Liberals are projected at 155 seats, yet only 14.5% of a majority. That seems weird but it's because they are currently ahead in many close races. In Quebec only, the Liberals are projected to win 8 seats by less than 5%. If they drop a little bit (or if their vote isn't as crazy efficient as in 2019), those 8 seats could flip really quickly.

Maybe the best way to illustrate this is to see that while the Liberals are projected with 155 seats, the average of the simulations puts them at only 145. So the race hasn't shifted that much with the polls today. Something to keep in mind as there is still considerable uncertainty at this point. Maybe presenting the average of the simulations (like what 338Canada does) would make more sense than doing the polling average and looking at the outcome with those numbers specifically. Oh well.

Anyway, here are the projections:


Full page here.

Detailed projections

Proj Canada 31 August 2021 by bryanbreguet on Scribd