Projections update August 24th: Liberals falling further away from a majority

A lot of polls today (Abacus, Léger and Ipsos on top of the usual 3 trackers from Mainstreet, Ekos and Nanos). The overall trend is very clear and favours the Conservatives of Erin O'Toole, in particular in Ontario and BC. The NDP doing quite well also, especially in the West where they are slowly replacing the Liberals as the main progressive alternative.

In Quebec, it's still mostly stable but I doubt it'll remain like this for the next two weeks (remember, the French 'debate' (called face to face) on TVA is on September 2nd and it attracts a huge audience, probably more than the official leaders' debate.

So let's take a look at the projections:

The map (note: it's interactive and up to date, so if you're reading this article days from now, the map won't match the rest of the projections)

Full page hereHold 'Shift' and use the left-click to move around.

In Quebec, voting intentions haven't changed much. The Bloc is still down compared to 2019 and the Liberals are making a few gains. However, there are quite a lot of races the Liberals are currently winning by a margin of less than 5% (8 to be exact). Any drop in Quebec and/or increase of the Bloc would make those seats flip. And if it happens, Trudeau would have almost no way to a majority based on the current polling numbers. Please note that I am not saying Trudeau can't come back during the next four weeks.

Let's also remember the Liberals had an incredibly efficient vote in Quebec in 2019. So it's well possible that some of those close races have already flipped.

In Ontario, the Tories have been surging in the last few days. Not enough to be ahead in the polling average (although a few polls do have them ahead, including Ekos and Mainstreet). Compared to 2019 when the Liberals won the province 42% to 33%, the current situation (36% to 35%) is basically turning half of the GTA into a race.

If the Conservatives can indeed win Ontario, then we can start genuinely discussing the possibility of Erin O'Toole having the most seats at the House of Commons. Would that be enough to become Prime Minister? Maybe with the Bloc but it's too early to tell.

In the Prairies and Alberta, the only interesting ridings are the urban ones. With the Tories being down generally there (ironically it's making their vote more efficient as they waste less of it in the rural ridings in Alberta for instance), both the Liberals and NDP can expect to make a few gains. This is also a region where the PPC and Maverick could do well and I might have to adjust my projections because of that. More generally, if the PPC voters ultimately go back to the CPC, at least in urban ridings in the West, that could create an ideal situation for the CPC where it could still win almost every single seat (the vote splitting in rural ridings won't be an issue).

See Manitoba here

And Calgary and Edmonton here:

Yes Trudeau would win seats in Alberta again after being shut out of it in 2019.

Finally, BC has seen the biggest increase for the CPC. To be fair, it might be a regression to the mean after some weird polls in July placing the Tories as low as 20%. The Lower Mainland is full of 3-way races and the Liberals will either need o get back up or will require their incredible vote efficiency again.

Alright, so all in all, we now have a situation where the Conservatives winning the most seats is almost as likely as the Liberals winning a majority. This is a very different situation from just one week ago. We'll see if O'Toole can continue his good campaign and if Trudeau can wake up. As for Singh, the Angus-Reid poll clearly showed that people like him and liked his campaign. If he can establish himself as the progressive alternative in the West, that could be huge for his party.

Detailed projections:

Proj Canada 24 August 2021 by bryanbreguet on Scribd