Projections update, August 17th: The Liberal majority in danger?

The first few polls of this campaign have been less positive for the Liberals than the ones in recent weeks. Trudeau is still hugely favorite to win the most seats but a majority is now less certain. At 59%, the odds are still in Trudeau's favour but it's significantly less than the 75+ we had just before the start of this campaign.

The Conservatives are doing much better in BC but are still trailing in Ontario. They are back above 100 seats but their chances of even a simple plurality are low (although increasing).

The two good news for the Liberals are Quebec where most polls still give them a big lead over the Bloc (note: except Leger) and what appears to be substantial gains among the 55+, a demographic that votes more than others.

Anyway, here are the latest projections:

Below the seat projections are the 95% confidence intervals

Detailed projections

Proj Canada 17 August 2021 by bryanbreguet on Scribd


Full page interactive version. Hold 'shift' to move the map around with your mouse cursor.