Quick morning projections update, May 24th 2018

I already posted a long article about the general accuracy of Canadian polls here, I strongly suggest you give it a read. Since I know other polls will come today (Léger for instance), I just updated my projections using yesterday's Mainstreet tracker as well as the new Pollara poll (for which we have very little information).

So here it is folks, just the number, no much blah blah.

Voting intentions; Seat projections with confidence intervals; Chances of winning the most seats

Notice that the Conservatives of Ford are now less than 90% sure to win the most seats. Maybe more significant is the fact the chances of a majority are now barely above 60% (see below for details). If the trend goes on (and I suspect it'll with the new Leger numbers. Leger doing online polls which have shown a tighter race than phone ones), then it'll soon be toss up for a Tory majority...

Possible outcomes are here:


Finally the detailed projections. Have a nice day everyone!

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