Projections update of May 31st 2018

Not a long article today as I already wrote a long text about how provincial and riding polls don't agree with each other. Just a quick projections update.

We got a ton of polls! Like really, it's like the election is tomorrow. The average moved quite a bit with the PC now less than 2 points behind while it was over 3 yesterday. The chances of winning are now further from the quasi toss-up of yesterday as well. I'm starting to believe that the NDP will need a late campaign surge if Andrea Horwath wants to win next win. Make no mistake though, there is still considerable uncertainty.

Voting intentions; Seat projections with confidence intervals; Chances of winning the most seats

Possible outcomes:




Riding by riding projections


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