Projections update, August 23rd: Liberals now below a majority

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This election has so far seen BC going back to 'normal' with the Tories back in first place (after polling terribly low for a while last month) and we are starting to see movement in Ontario. Quebec hasn't really tuned in as voting intentions have, so far, been stable. La Belle Province is actually saving Trudeau by providing him with the few gains he'd make, mostly thanks to a drop of the Bloc.

So here are the projections:

The Liberals are currently projecting to win a significant number of close races. Should the polls slightly overestimate this party and Trudeau could well win fewer seats. The average of the 5,000 simulations has the Liberals at 161 seats. The actual probabilities of a majorities are now only 38%, stable over the last few days but a sharp drop compared to 2 weeks ago. At 11% chances for a Tory plurality, progressive voters likely don't need to worry about vote splitting (yet?).

Remember that outside of Quebec, the LPC is not really making gains and is even losing seats in Ontario. All the potential gains in the West have evaporated in 1 week and Trudeau must be hoping for Quebeckers to keep not paying attention. If the Bloc were to climb back above 30%, a majority would become quasi impossible. Keep an eye on Ontario in the next few days, this could become really interesting. It's also pretty logical that O'Toole would be doing better in Ontario as 2019 was marked with the Ford effect.


Full page map here. Hold 'shift' and use the left-click of your mouse to move the map. Performance from Tableau isn't the best, so allow 1-2 seconds if you zoom in or out.

Detailed projections:

Proj Canada 23 August 2021 by bryanbreguet on Scribd