Projections update, October 8th 2019

Nanos, Mainstreet, Innovative and Ipsos all published new numbers during the last two days. Overall the numbers are still very stable with the exception of Quebec where the Bloc is clearly rising and the Conservatives falling.

The Liberals have taken a small lead in the popular vote, mostly thanks to the drop of the CPC in Quebec but also thanks to some strong numbers in BC (where they now lead as well).

Will we finally see some movements after a month of stability? That's not impossible. Blanchet clearly won the french debate on TVA while Scheer lost it and it changed things in Quebec. I personally believe Singh won the English debate last night and that Trudeau lost it. Preliminary data and analysis from my own non-scientific polls confirmed this.

Of course such a poll isn't scientific but it worked very well to identify the winner and loser in the French debate. Both Abacus and Innovative confirmed my findings. As for the English debate, Ipsos and Global had the same qualitative result: Singh performed best.


So anyway, here are the projections. I don't think the situation is fundamentally different. Scheer is still essentially a few points in the GTA away from winning. Although he can't afford to drop in BC. As for Trudeau, I think his lead is more precarious than it looks because I believe the Bloc is higher than the polling average. This party is "only" at 25% because of Nanos and some older polls still included. So I believe the Bloc is likely to cost the Liberals many seats and they'll fall below 40 very soon.



Riding by riding:

   Proj 08.10.2019 by bryanbreguet on Scribd