Finally some good news (relatively) for the BC Liberals?

Angus Reid just published a second poll in only a few days and, maybe for the first time since this campaign started, the numbers are slightly better for the Liberals. Don't get me wrong, they are still pointing towards a NDP majority but it's relatively better for a few reasons.

The BC Liberals are 'only' trailing by 10 points (45% to 35%) among decided voters (including many who have already voted in advance or by mail). Moreover, some of the crosstabs are more favourable for the Liberals. For instance we see this party well ahead in the Interior and higher among the 55+. This is more typical of BC politics but quite a contrast to what polls were showing previously (with Horgan making significant gains in the Interior and among older voters).

The one really good news for the NDP in this poll is the other confirmation that, among people who have already voted, this party is largely ahead (51% to 33%). We had seen this in other polls previously. Whether the NDP gets a small or super majority might well depend on how many people actually go out and vote on Saturday, as the in-person voters are likely to favour the Liberals.

We have seen such trends in previous polls as you can see in the next few graphs.

The good trend on the Island for the Green might be misleading as it is mostly due to the last few pollsters (Angus-Reid, Insights West) having this party higher than Leger or Mainstreet, a difference observed throughout the campaign.

We are still far from the BC Liberals being actually competitive but if such trends should materialize on Saturday, Wilkinson could at least save the furniture and not fall below 30 seats.

Here are the projections after adding this poll to the adjusted average. Notice that the BC Liberals no longer have an official candidate in Chilliwack Kent and the incumbent MLA is listed as independent after he was forced to resign. He'll still appear on the ballot under the Liberal name. Projecting such a situation is difficult but I looked at the few past precedents and concluded that Laurie Throness will likely perform at 50-60% of what he'd have otherwise. Most likely not enough to win but enough to be a strong second.