BC projections update: new Ipsos poll puts the NDP firmly in majority territory

Quick projections update since Ipsos published their first BC poll of the campaign yesterday. As opposed to the first two polls, Ipsos has the NDP significantly higher at 51% among decided voters, a full 18 points ahead of the BC Liberals! Here are a few thoughts about this poll and other stuff:

- Ipsos has a really high number of undecided (25%). Since I allocate undecided not proportionally (because I find this assumption stupid, it comes down to assuming that all undecided will either not vote or will vote exactly like the decided voters) and allocate 50% of undecided to both the NDP and Liberals (so no undecided for small parties), I have the 'adjusted' NDP lead in this poll at 'only' 13 points. You might hate my assumption but it has worked well in the past. The BC Liberals have a tendency to be underestimated and incumbent governments do too, so 50% each is logical to me.

- The last three polls have shown something maybe surprising: the BC NDP is especially up (compared to 2017) in the Interior/Rest of BC. They are up a full 10 points, more than the 6.3% increase overall. This could be important for their vote efficiency and could really hurt the Liberals. This is why if you use the advance simulator, you usually get higher seat total for the NDP than using the basic simulator (although the difference should be attenuated now that the basic simulator/model also has regional adjustments). Make no mistake, this is great news for the NDP and I'm curious if Horgan will campaign in the Interior more than in 2017. Ridings such as Chilliwack or Cariboo could be in play.

- The BC Green is down 8 points on the Island, this is really bad news for them. They need to hope their support is now concentrated in the three ridings they own. They also need to announce a good candidate in Oak Bay-Gordon Head if they want to prevent the NDP from taking this riding. I hear an announcement is scheduled for today, Wednesday.

Alright, that is all. We are supposed to get a Leger and Mainstreet polls soon, the later being the first phone (IVR) poll of this campaign. In the meantime, here are all the numbers, including a new presentation of min, max and the 5th/95th percentiles (called 'low' and 'high'). Advice: click on the picture to enlarge it.

Voting intentions, seat projections (with 95% confidence intervals), chances of winning the most seats