Once in a while, I'll switch from my usually text heavy posts to straight up, pure numbers. This section is therefore called (unoriginally) By the Numbers.
Outcome
|
Probability
|
NDP victory
|
100%
|
NDP majority
|
100%
|
NDP with 70
seats or more
|
6.4%
|
NDP with 50
seats or less
|
6%
|
Lib with 10
seats or less
|
1.3%
|
Lib with 20
seats or less
|
48%
|
Cons with at
least 1 seat
|
44%
|
Cons with 5
seats or more
|
1.4%
|
Green with at
least 1 seat
|
1.2%
|
Seats
|
|
Min Liberals
|
7
|
Max Liberals
|
40
|
Max Conservative
|
8
|
Max green
|
1
|
Other
|
|
Chances of
Christy Clark being elected
|
51%
|
# ridings
where all 4 parties can win
|
1 (West
Vancouver- Sea to sky)
|
# riding
where one party is projected to win 100% of the time
|
35
(32 NDP, 3 Lib)
|
Also, here are the latest projections, using the poll from Angus-Reid released today (April 24th). Riding-by-riding projections are here. The 3 points picked-up by the Liberals are really helping. Indeed, with these numbers, there is one scenario (out of 1000) where the BC Liberals would get 40 seats while the BC NDP would get 43. So the race is slightly closer now. If the trend goes on next week, we could actually have some suspense.
