New Quebec projection: Legermarketing (Feb. 7th)

A new poll from Legermarketing with some interesting questions about the hypothetical new party of Legault. Interesting ti read but I don't make projections for this party (it would be very difficult anyway since we don't have past election's results for that).

The PQ still has the lead but would get a very narrow majority. The Liberals are up 4 points since last time and would make the election night very entertaining. The ADQ is stable and is still the key to another minority government. As for QS, they are not as high as in some previous polls, but would still win a second seat.

I said it before and I'll say it again. To see that the PQ is not able to break the 40% threshold consistently when facing a Liberal party that has been in power for 7 years now and with a hated leader, this is really not a good sign for the separatist party. I don't know if the PQ would do much better with someone else than Marois, I doubt it. It could help in the short term, but nothing else. On top of that, if the members of the PQ thought that QS stole a lot of votes from them last election, imagine next time if QS actually gets as much as 8%.

Just a note: I use a single poll to make the projections for Quebec because of the lack of polls. As opposed to the federal level, we have usually only one poll every month. So I prefer using only this last one. On top of that, the main reason I use an average of all polls for the federal projections is because of small sample sizes by province. Here for Quebec, I don't have this problem.

Here are the details for the projections.