I haven't covered much of the Manitoba election except for a few tweets on Twitter before I got permanently suspended. Still, here are the final projections. Please keep in mind that I spent a LOT less time following this election and building the model than for other elections. I also know nothing of Manitoba and its politics. Finally, we got very few polls (although the trend is similar across polls and they seem to agree on the NDP being well ahead).
If you don't tryst the polls, just use the simulator here.
Final projections based (note: I'll update if we get more polls before midnight and if these polls significantly shift my projections):
I didn't build a probabilistic model so I don't have the exact chances for each party but given that I don't find a strong imbalance between popular vote and seats, a PC victory would require a significant polling error. Basically the PC needs to do 3 points better and the NDP 3 points worse. The odds of such an error are 10%.
Another way to look at it is to notice that the PC basically needs a clean sweep of the close races (within 5%) to win 28 seats (and even there, NDP+Lib would be above...). Such a scenario would, once again, require a systematic polling error in the favour of the PC. Could vote efficiency save Stefanson? Maybe but she needs to expect the Liberals to either split the vote more or switch to her. All in all, it's pretty clear the safe bet is on a NDP majority tomorrow. Any other result would be a pretty bug surprise.
The NDP dominates in Winnipeg while the PC rules the rest of the province. However, the NDP is closer in the rest (10 points behind) than the PC is in Winnipeg (20 points behind). Northern Manitoba is also a huge source of rural seats for the NDP.
Ultimately, and keep in mind that I don't follow that much, but it seems to me that Stefanson failed to do what Danielle Smith did in Alberta: win the campaign (and the debate). The PC campaign hasn't been as good as the Smith's one and Stefanson didn't win the debate (Smith absolutely crushed it). To Stafanson's credit, it seems Manitoba doesn't have a Calgary, that is a conservative leaning city. We have seen at the federal level (both elections and polls) that Manitoba is shifting left and this is mostly driven by Winnipeg.
Manitoba follows Alberta in one way though: the left now seems united. The Green party has essentially disappeared and the Liberals will likely finish below 10%. It's impressive to see how the modern Left in Canada is willing to unite despite disagreements. Well in Manitoba, Alberta and BC, not in Ontario...
Here are the maps as well as the detailed projections by ridings.
Winnipeg
