Latest Ekos poll gives the NDP a real shot at victory

The impact of the orange wave in Alberta still continues. The most recent Ekos poll actually shows the NDP of Thomas Mulcair first Canada wide. This party is enjoying a significant boost in Ontario, Alberta and BC (but surprisingly not Quebec, as opposed to the most recent Crop).

This is obviously only one poll, but there is no denying the NDP is currently higher than before Notley became Premier of Alberta. Will this effect last until the fall? Probably not. But I'm sure Mulcair isn't against the spotlight. I mean, just a couple of months ago, the NDP seemed more likely to fall back under the 20% mark and simply fight for third place. Given his huge advantage in Quebec (where it can lose quite a lot of votes and still win the most seats, thus insuring Mulcair will keep a respectable caucus size no matter what), the NDP now appears in relatively good position to at least start the next campaign with the objective of winning it (or at least, they can aim for this objective without looking silly).

In term of projections, here there are. Remember that the seat intervals as well as the chances of winning are estimated using 5000 simulations that account for the uncertainty of polls as well as f the electoral system.

Voting intentions; Seat projections with confidence intervals at 95%; Chances of winning the most seats

You can make your own projections using the simulator. However, the model I use for Quebec and Ontario is slightly different and I'll udpate the simulator by the end of the month.

The CPC would still be favorite thanks to a better vote efficiency. And it is the very definition of a three ways race with even the Liberals having a shot at winning the most seats (it'd however require a significant underestimation of this party in this poll). If the outcome of the next election is indeed close to this (assuming the CPC winning slightly more seats), you can bet we'd have a hard time deciding who would really be the PM. Stephen Harper would most likely try to stay but I'm very skeptical he could pass the Throne's Speech. At the same time, both the NDP and the LPC have said no coalition... In any case, this would be such a complicated situation that anyone telling you they know for sure is either delusional or lying.

There is no scenario where either party gets a majority. The maximum number of seats is 151 for the CPC, 140 for the Liberals and 159 for the NDP (yes, the NDP has a higher maximum). See these numbers as the absolute best case scenarios for each party. We're are talking about a situation where the party would out-performs the polls significantly AND have an efficient vote. Bottom line: with numbers like these, no way anybody gets a majority.

As I've said, it's one poll and it's doubtful the bump for the NDP will last 5 more months. But right now, Thomas Mulcaire is definitely in a much better situation than a couple of months ago.

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