New Abacus and Ekos polls

Here are the latest projections, using the latest polls from Abacus, Ekos (as well as Angus and Decima, but weighted less since they are older). As we can see, not much change again this week. Polls are pretty consistent across pollsters, even at the provincial level. Details riding-by-riding can be found (and downloaded as a pdf) here.

The Conservatives are still short of the desired majority. They have 126 safe seats (leading by more than 5%) and are involved in 26 races. This means that even in the best case scenario, they would still be 5 MPs short. However, with a good campaing and an aggressive targeting of some ridings, the Conservatives could actually get a majority.

The Liberals under Igniatieff are still doing only marginally better than under Dion, which says a lot. Of course Iggy didn't have the opportunity yet to offer his ideas during a campaing, but things don't look too well for this party.

The NDP is going down slightly but keeping most of its seats. As for the Green, they are in a race in only one riding, in Ontario (which makes me wonder why Elizabeth May doesn't want to run in this province...). As always, the Bloc has the easy life with 50 seats, thanks to the split of the federalist vote.

So basically, if an election was held tomorrow, we could expect a House of Common quite similar to the current one. In particular, even a coalition LPC+NDP would still be far off a majority.

Another interesting fact provided by the Abacus is the second choice of the voters. 56% of the Conservatives simply don't have one! This number is way higher than for any other party. Interestingly enough, NDP voters would favour the Green as second (33% of the voters), but then would split quite evenly between CPC and LPC (15% and 20% respectively).

New federal projections: January 13th 2011

New year, same results? It looks like this, at least as far as canadian politics is concerned. With the latest polls from Angus-Reid and Ekos, the projections don't change much. The Conservatives still have a comfortable lead but are still far away from a majority. The NDP is doing quite badly, especially in one poll. However, thanks to a lot of riding won with a big majority, this party is still projected above 35 seats (with no less than 30 seats "safe"). Still no seat for the Green, even though they are a serious contender in two ridings (Bruce-Grey and Guelph, both in Ontario). If this party can really get as much as 10% of the votes during an election, I believe it could create some surprises. After all, in a lot of polls, the Green party is actually in front of the NDP in the Prairies. Still about the NDP: the two polls place this party at two very different level in the Atlantic,: 10% in Angus, 26% for Ekos! Gotta love the effect of small smaple sizes!

The riding-by-riding projections can be downloaded here.

As we get closer and closer to the federal budget, rumours of elections are very high. However, with those polls, I don't really see who would really want to go in elections (except the Bloc of course). My prediction? A lot of talk and threats, but at the end, the budget will pass using some kind of tricks (most of the liberal MPs won't show up, etc). Unless of course Harper actually wants an election.