New federal projections: January 13th 2011

New year, same results? It looks like this, at least as far as canadian politics is concerned. With the latest polls from Angus-Reid and Ekos, the projections don't change much. The Conservatives still have a comfortable lead but are still far away from a majority. The NDP is doing quite badly, especially in one poll. However, thanks to a lot of riding won with a big majority, this party is still projected above 35 seats (with no less than 30 seats "safe"). Still no seat for the Green, even though they are a serious contender in two ridings (Bruce-Grey and Guelph, both in Ontario). If this party can really get as much as 10% of the votes during an election, I believe it could create some surprises. After all, in a lot of polls, the Green party is actually in front of the NDP in the Prairies. Still about the NDP: the two polls place this party at two very different level in the Atlantic,: 10% in Angus, 26% for Ekos! Gotta love the effect of small smaple sizes!

The riding-by-riding projections can be downloaded here.

As we get closer and closer to the federal budget, rumours of elections are very high. However, with those polls, I don't really see who would really want to go in elections (except the Bloc of course). My prediction? A lot of talk and threats, but at the end, the budget will pass using some kind of tricks (most of the liberal MPs won't show up, etc). Unless of course Harper actually wants an election.