Elizabeth May leading in her riding?

A short post where I thought I would let you know of this poll conducted in the riding of Saanish-Gulf Islands where Elizabeth May is running. She is projected to lead 45% to 38%, Howeber, this is a poll with only 398 respondents and conducted by a firm that I never heard of. If you apply the margins of errors, they are both statistically tied.

It's possible that May is indeed leading though, but that would mean that she would benefit from a huge boost, because the current polls don't put the Green that high in BC (or anywhere in Canada actually). I'm already giving May a boost of 20-points, taken mostly from the NDP. So I don't think I'll change that and give us an even bigger boost, even though she's is currently projected to lose this riding in my projections. If you missed it, here is where I explain how I estimated the Elizabeth May effect.

No matter the polls or projections, this will likely provide us with one last close race to follow during election night. Although, depending on the outcome, we might be more concerned with what type of government we'll get.

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