April 28th: new projections show NDP as official opposition

Harris-Decima finally released a new poll. They were pretty much the only pollster which didn't publish a poll since the NDP's surge. So I updated the projections with this new HD, one new Nanos and one new Ekos (by the way, we can see that voting intentions are becoming stable in Ekos, which is a really good news for the projections!).

As you can see, the NDP is now projected solidly in second place. This is the first time it happens when using an average of most recent polls. As for the Bloc, be carefull as the current projections have this party winning only 6 out of 17 close races. But the trend is definitely there for this party and it's starting to look ugly.

If we actually get these results, the NDP couldn't simply rely on the support of the Liberals in order to govern. On the other hand, Harper would need "only" the Bloc. Speaking of the Conservatives, the majority is still technically possible but it's becoming more and more difficult. Rifht now, they would basically need to win 95% of the close races they are involved in. I personally don't think they will secure a majority anymore. If anything, if you look at the trend in Ekos, AR or Nanos, you see the NDP rising way too high for that. Especially since the Liberals will not finish third with only 37 seats like the NDP last time. So I think the new parliament will have an opposition at least as important as last time. What does it mean for Harper? Well I don't know. The current projections would probably mean he remains PM and tries to govern. But if the CPC's numbers start to fall a little bit more and Harper actually loses seats (along with the NDP+LPC having the majority), I think we would be in for a lot of instability. These are all speculations of course. By the way, I believe that people wouldn't mind so much having the NDP forming the government in the event that the Tories would fall quickly. I think the difference with the 2008 coalition is that, at that time, the Conservatives did win the election and the Liberals were the clear losers. But this time around, the moral winner would probably be the NDP. This poll from Ekos kinda confirms my thoughts.

Riding-by-riding projections are here.

Let me know what you think: if Harper gets a (even reduced) minority and NDP+LPC have the majority, what kind of government do we have within the first three months?

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