April 13th: New Ekos poll - Best scenario for the Liberals so far

We have a new poll from Ekos with a sample size of only 1000 though. The results are really, really weird. Nationally, the Conservatives are at only 33.8% and the Liberals are at 28.8%. Moreover, in some provinces, you have other odd results. For instance, the NDP is now first in BC with 36.8%, way ahead of the Tories at 26.4%. As in the Nanos polls, the race in Ontario seems very close, but given all the weird results of this poll, I'm gonna wait and see before deciding for sure if Michael Ignatieff is doing so well in this province. After all, a couple of days ago we got an Ipsos poll where the CPC was at 46% in Ontario.

Just for fun, I decided to use this single poll for projections. The results would be the following:

CPC: 124
LPC: 102
NDP: 38
Green: 1
Bloc: 43

Oh yes, Elizabeth May would now win her riding, thanks to the large drop of the Tories. And the Bloc, at only 31% in Quebec, would naturally lose some seats. Overall, it would be like going back to 2006, except for the NDP of course.

I'll post soon an analysis titled "Can the Liberals even win the election?" where I run a simulation of what would be the minimal swing the Liberals would need in order to win.

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