When I estimated the "May effect", i.e: the boost that the leader of the Green party can expect when running in a given riding, I said that I didn't understand why she choose the riding of Saanich-Gulf-Island in BC instead of Guelph in Ontario.
Well when reading this article (in french), it seems that May and the Green party did do some research before choosing. She says that (my translation) "The party did a lot of research, in collaboration with two poll firms. That allowed us to determine that, out of all the ridings in the country, this one was where the voters were the closest to the values of the Green party".
Is that true? If this is the case, then how come the Green did better in Guelph than in this riding? I understand that the Green party gets its best score in BC, but the fact remains that Guelph seemed better, with potentially more votes to take from the NDP.
But we'll see. I modified the model to take into account of this May effect and so far, the projections don't agree with ehr when she says "the race is between the Conservatives and us. The Liberals and NDP are far behind". Yes the Green party seems to be in the race, but the Liberals are still projected 2nd, despite losing some votes to the May.
I hope we'll get a poll specifically for this riding throughout this campaign so that we could compare and maybe adjust the projections. But in the mean time, I'm still not sold on her choice of riding.