New projections

Here are the latest projections using an average of all the recent polls. Since most of them gave the Conservatives a big lead, the new seat projections are naturally more favourable to the Tories. They are getting very close to a majority. You can see the details here.

By the way, I'm glad to see that 308 has finally updated his model and is now able to make riding-levels projections. I'm particularly glad to see that his projections are now much closer to mine, especially regarding the Liberals and the NDP. I have been complaining for months that 308 was underestimating the NDP and overestimating the Liberals. So it's good to see that 308 has finally admitted there was a problem.

Oh I would like to just add one comment about the recent debate regarding polls. I love polls, of course. But I have to admit that pollsters make me sad sometimse. In particular, I hate when the pollsters improvice themselves as political analyst and give us, along their new numbers, the reasons as to why a party increased or not. Not only are those changes within the margin of error most of the time, the fact remains that to assess whether one news really hurt a party or not, you need much more than a simple poll. After all, I completed my undergrad with a minor in political science and I had to read electoral studies. When you do, you realize how complicated it can be to determine the effect of one issue. So I'd really appreciate if pollsters could simple improve their methodology, calculate the margin of error correctly and stop thinking they have a ph.d in political science. For instance, I think that one big mistakes of almost all polls is that they don't interview comitted voters only. How can you interview 1000 people, get their vote intentions and think it's perfect? When you know that on election day, more than 40% of people won't vote?

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