New poll from LegerMarketing, 14th March 2011

We are getting really close to the federal budget and the polls keep coming. And they keep showing a huge lead for the Conservatives. The last one, from LegerMarketing, show a 13 points lead nationally for the Tories, and a big 14-points lead in Ontario. Getting high numbers in this province is naturally the key for a majority (since it seems pretty obvious that the Conservatives have given up any hopes they had to increase substantially their number of MPs in Quebec.

The Liberals are down pretty much everywhere, with the Atlantic being their only dominant region in this poll. At only 27% in Ontario, they would win only 29 seats in this province. Can you imagine that in 2000, this aprty could win all but two seats in this province?

The NDP holds up pretty well everywhere, except in BC where this poll puts this party last. On the other hand, this is another poll placing the NDP very high in Quebec, at 20% for second place! We have seen this trend going on for a while and I'm convinced that the NDP will be a real contender in this province next time. Probably not in term of seats (the party can only dream of 2-3 max), but at least in terms of percentages. Imagine this aprty with Thomas Mulcair as leader...

The Greens are projected to win one seat, Guelph. While I'm always skeptical of polls for the Green party, I have to wonder why the heck did Elizabeth May chose to run in BC... I'll post about that another day. But I sometimes think that she isn't actually interested in being elected.

At the end, if we indeed go in election, it's gonna be very interesting because we would start it by having a virtual Conservative majority. And this would be new. Yes in 2008, we were wondering if the Tories could get a majority or not, but it never was very likely (until the middle of the night of the election!). But this time, it is completely possible and it should therefore affect the dynamic of the campaign. Speaking of which, according to you, what does Igniatieff need to do to remain leader of the Liberals? I think it's pretty safe to assume that a CPC majority would send him back to Harvard. But what about another minority? How many seats does he need to gain compared to Stephane Dion? I'm not sure about this.

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