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Are people finally paying attention? Did the French (TVA) and English debates finally change things? With Blanchet winning the former and Singh the latter, it does seem to have shaken things up. It's especially obvious in Quebec where we now have polls putting the Bloc above 30% and ahead of the Liberals, but it'll likely affect the ROC soon.
The projections have, maybe surprisingly, moved very little. Today's polls are actually not bad for the Liberals because both Nanos and Mainstreet give this party a good lead in Ontario and Nanos still sees the Grits well ahead in La Belle Province. I believe Nanos to be dead wrong in Quebec but I can't let my subjective opinion influence which poll is included.
Still for Quebec, while Forum, Leger and Mainstreet all see a massive rise of the Bloc and decline of the LPC, Nanos, Ipsos and Innovative released numbers fairly recently with the Liberals still ahead. Given that I don't want to only include the polls published in the last two days, my polling average in Quebec hasn't moved as much as you may think. I truly believe the projections will change dramatically in the next few days. In the meantime, don't hesitate to use the simulator to make your own projections.
Before moving onto the numbers, here's how different the numbers in Quebec are between Nanos and Mainstreet (the numbers of this morning). If I only use Nanos, I get 53 seats LPC, 11 Bloc. With only Mainstreet, this is 24 LPC, 40 Bloc!
Before moving onto the numbers, here's how different the numbers in Quebec are between Nanos and Mainstreet (the numbers of this morning). If I only use Nanos, I get 53 seats LPC, 11 Bloc. With only Mainstreet, this is 24 LPC, 40 Bloc!
Projections:
Map:
Riding by riding:
Proj 10.10.2019 by bryanbreguet on Scribd
I think we can now call it: Jagmeet Singh won the English leaders' debate on Monday. What evidence am I basing this call on? The following:
1) Innovative poll
Singh is delcared winner by 27% of respondent while Scheer is at 17% and Trudeau at 15%. Given that the NDP is polling at around 12-13%, that means Singh convinced many people outside of his party. Innovative actually shows that explicitly. Indeed, while Liberals voters chose Trudeau as best performer at 34%, Singh is just behind at 25%. Given that people always act partisan when judging leaders' performances, being at 25% is a huge sign the NDP leader won.
Singh is also seen as the winner by 20% of Green voters, while May only gets the vote of 11% a pretty shocking result.
2) The Global News live sentiments during the debate.
I already mentioned it in my post yesterday but Singh is the only leader with a net positive rating after the 2 hours debate.
3) Leger poll
29% for Singh, 22% for Scheer and 20% for Trudeau. There as well Singh is the only scoring above his party.
4) My own poll
Yes my audience is skewed but if you compare the number of people declaring Singh as winner (27%) to the number of people voting for the NDP (16%), you see Singh performing above expectations. While Trudeau is below (15% versus 18%). Scheer is doing very well too (16% winner versus 10% voting intentions).
So literally every single piece of data we have puts Singh as the winner. We can argue on the magnitude of the win, but I don't think we can argue he won. We can also debate the impact of this win on the voting intentions.
I also believe subjective readings from pundits put him ahead (well except for Thomas Mulcair but that seemed to be basic pettiness). For instance here is Angus Reid, the pollster.
Finally, if you look at Google Trends, you see Singh clearly generating interest, to the point where he caught up to Trudeau after the debate.
We have also started seeing a rise for the NDP in some polls (Mainstreet, Leger) and other pollsters have mentioned finally seeing things moving in favour of the NDP. Which at least lines up with Singh having won the debate.
1) Innovative poll
Singh is delcared winner by 27% of respondent while Scheer is at 17% and Trudeau at 15%. Given that the NDP is polling at around 12-13%, that means Singh convinced many people outside of his party. Innovative actually shows that explicitly. Indeed, while Liberals voters chose Trudeau as best performer at 34%, Singh is just behind at 25%. Given that people always act partisan when judging leaders' performances, being at 25% is a huge sign the NDP leader won.
Singh is also seen as the winner by 20% of Green voters, while May only gets the vote of 11% a pretty shocking result.
2) The Global News live sentiments during the debate.
I already mentioned it in my post yesterday but Singh is the only leader with a net positive rating after the 2 hours debate.
3) Leger poll
29% for Singh, 22% for Scheer and 20% for Trudeau. There as well Singh is the only scoring above his party.
4) My own poll
Yes my audience is skewed but if you compare the number of people declaring Singh as winner (27%) to the number of people voting for the NDP (16%), you see Singh performing above expectations. While Trudeau is below (15% versus 18%). Scheer is doing very well too (16% winner versus 10% voting intentions).
So literally every single piece of data we have puts Singh as the winner. We can argue on the magnitude of the win, but I don't think we can argue he won. We can also debate the impact of this win on the voting intentions.
I also believe subjective readings from pundits put him ahead (well except for Thomas Mulcair but that seemed to be basic pettiness). For instance here is Angus Reid, the pollster.
It’s becoming clear that the winner of the English language debate was Jagmeet Singh. Could he attract the kind of aura that Justin Trudeau had in 2015? Anecdotal evidence suggests he could have a big following among younger Canadians. Polling data to follow. Game changer?— Angus Reid (@AngusReid) October 9, 2019
Finally, if you look at Google Trends, you see Singh clearly generating interest, to the point where he caught up to Trudeau after the debate.
We have also started seeing a rise for the NDP in some polls (Mainstreet, Leger) and other pollsters have mentioned finally seeing things moving in favour of the NDP. Which at least lines up with Singh having won the debate.
Nanos, Mainstreet, Innovative and Ipsos all published new numbers during the last two days. Overall the numbers are still very stable with the exception of Quebec where the Bloc is clearly rising and the Conservatives falling.
The Liberals have taken a small lead in the popular vote, mostly thanks to the drop of the CPC in Quebec but also thanks to some strong numbers in BC (where they now lead as well).
Will we finally see some movements after a month of stability? That's not impossible. Blanchet clearly won the french debate on TVA while Scheer lost it and it changed things in Quebec. I personally believe Singh won the English debate last night and that Trudeau lost it. Preliminary data and analysis from my own non-scientific polls confirmed this.
Of course such a poll isn't scientific but it worked very well to identify the winner and loser in the French debate. Both Abacus and Innovative confirmed my findings. As for the English debate, Ipsos and Global had the same qualitative result: Singh performed best.
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| Source: https://globalnews.ca/news/6001339/live-blog-english-federal-leaders-debate/?utm_source=%40globalnews&utm_medium=Twitter |
So anyway, here are the projections. I don't think the situation is fundamentally different. Scheer is still essentially a few points in the GTA away from winning. Although he can't afford to drop in BC. As for Trudeau, I think his lead is more precarious than it looks because I believe the Bloc is higher than the polling average. This party is "only" at 25% because of Nanos and some older polls still included. So I believe the Bloc is likely to cost the Liberals many seats and they'll fall below 40 very soon.
Projections:
Map:
Riding by riding:
Proj 08.10.2019 by bryanbreguet on Scribd
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Who won the English leaders' debate?
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If the election were tomorrow, who would you vote for?
Finally, the leaders' debate with everybody, including Justin Trudeau! Tonight at 7PM Eastern time. Beyond the obvious entertainment value for political nerds like me (or you, admit it), this debate is incredibly important for the Conservative leader Andrew Scheer.
Recent projections (note: I'll update soon) have the following situation: it's super close in votes but the Liberals likely have the edge in seats, mostly thanks to Quebec and Ontario. The Tories aren't far behind. A "simple" swing of a few points in the GTA could well be enough for them to finish first.
So why is this debate so important? Well first of all because Scheer definitely blew it in the French debate last week (the face à face TVA). Readers of my blog and Twitter feed clearly put Blanchet as winner with Trudeau close second (once you correct for the fact that my audience seems to be predominantly Bloc voters). A poll from Abacus yesterday confirmed those findings.
Scheer's performance was absolutely horrible. Yes the early topics weren't helping and yes French is (very clearly) not his first language (side note: I personally believe Scheer is not bilingual enough to be Prime Minister of this country, but whatever), but it doesn't excuse his performance.
We haven't had many polls in Quebec since the debate but we can look at the two daily trackers of Nanos and Mainstreet. Both had numbers yesterday that were collected entirely after the debate, numbers that can be compared to the polls right before.
Nanos has the CPC going from 20.88% to 11.99%! It's obviously based on small sample sizes but still. Mainstreet saw a decline from 19.3% to 15.3% (and that's with more decent sample sizes). Choose your term: collapse, free fall, etc.
The graph below will show you how dire the situation has become for the Tories in Quebec.
While dropping in Quebec is not the end of the world for the Conservatives (their few seats are fairly safe and they always had limited possible gains), they are starting to poll low enough that they should start being worried in a couple of safe seats. Also, it goes without saying that any hope for the Tories to make some very useful gains in Quebec are likely gone. Jonquière will be tough and Bernier would likely win in Beauce also.
The good news for Scheer is that the Bloc is rising. And rising fast according to some. Mainstreet had this party at 29% yesterday, barely behind the Liberals. Given the francophone votes, that would likely put the Bloc in first position in seats. So the Bloc is giving Scheer a gigantic gift by taking a ton of seats away from the Liberals (in the 450 and elsewhere). Now the Conservative leader needs to do his part: increase in Ontario. Major gains in other provinces seem fairly safe at this point (there could even be a lot from the Maritimes depending on vote efficiency) but Ontario is still lagging. It's absolutely stable but negative for the CPC. Scheer has no chance of becoming PM if his party continues to poll behind the LPC by 5 points or more in Canada's biggest province. So tonight's debate is maybe the last chance he'll have to change this situation.
Also, as a conclusion to this blog post. here are the voting intentions for the entire country over the last month. It's super stable! I understand the Nanos numbers have moved in favour of the Liberals in the last few days but those are based on small sample sizes. The reality is that there has been no upward or downward trend for the main two parties. Please keep this in mind and don't fall for the swing of one or two polls (yes I myself sometimes write about such changes, I'm aware of this). And yes, if you use a polynomial trend, you do see a small dip of the CPC in the last few days. This is entirely driven by the decline in Quebec.
The only two long term trends we have observed over the last months are:
-Bloc rising
-NDP rising (although IVR polls don't agree with online ones)
Enjoy the debate tonight! Remember to follow me on Twitter.
Lundi soir aura finalement lieu le premier (et seul) débat en anglais de cette campagne avec le chef Libéral Justin Trudeau. Pour Andrew Scheer, cela pourrait bien représenter sa dernière chance de faire pencher la situation en sa faveur. Après un débat en français raté, le chef Conservateur se devra de faire mieux. Il court le risque de laisser filer cette élection et, possiblement, de permettre à Trudeau d'obtenir une 2e majorité. Car le chef Libéral n'est en effet pas si loin du chiffre magique de 169. Dans les faits, il se pourrait fort bien qu'il soit en terrain majoritaire actuellement.
La moyenne des sondages n'a pas vraiment changé. Nanos a eu un gros revirement de situation en 2 jours, passant de +2.3% pour le PCC à -3.6%! Mais un seul sondage ne suffit pas pour faire changer la moyenne, d'autant plus que Mainstreet continue plutôt de voir une égalité statistique.
Voici les projections:
La carte électorale:
Les projections par circonscription:
Proj 05.10.2019 by bryanbreguet on Scribd
C'est vraiment serré. Mais les Libéraux ont l'avantage et davantage de façons de gagner. Le PLC peut encore rêver à 50+ sièges au Québec si les sondages le sous-estiment (ou surestiment le Bloc). En Ontario, certains sondages semblent indiquer une avance considérable du PLC. Les sondages par comté indiquent que les deux possibilités sont bien réelles.
Pour le PCC, le chemin du pouvoir est le suivant:
- Le Bloc confirme sa remontée et gagne 20 sièges au moins, forçant le PLC à 40 ou moins
- Une poussée dans le grand Toronto (GTA ou 905) lui permettant de changer un autre 10 sièges environ. On parle juste de quelques points ici.
Ces deux évènements doivent arriver pour que les Conservateurs se retrouvent au pouvoir. Et encore là, on parle vraisemblablement d'une minorité Conservatrive. Ce qui signifie que Scheer ne serait pas assuré de devenir Premier Ministre.
