Right before the two official debates, here are the most up to date projections. They use all the polls published today, including the Leger, Ipsos and the regular Ekos/Mainstreet/Nanos.
For Trudeau, the only reason he's still ahead is thanks to Quebec and the drop of the Bloc. The Liberals aren't even up there, it's just that vote splitting and a stupid electoral system are helping the Liberals. Ontario is getting closer and if Leger is right with its 905 numbers, the current projections are likely underestimating the Tories. Atlantic is a mess but could be a source of many gains for O'Toole. Finally, BC is a complete 3-way race with so many races, each party could finish first.
The debates will be crucial. If O'Toole wants to have a chance of becoming Prime Minister, he needs to do better than during the first French debate.
Look at those confidence intervals (at 95%). A few points here and there could change everything. It is truly an unpredictable race. One might even say it's too close to call.
Map
Detailed projections
Proj Canada 8 September 2021 by bryanbreguet on Scribd
