Projections update, Sept 13th: Bloc surge prevents a Liberal majority

The post-debate surge for the Bloc appears to be real. All of a sudden, Yves-François Blanchet is back over 30 seats and can even dream of 40. While Trudeau and the Liberals are gaining in the Rest of Canada (a little bit or a lot, depending on whether you ask Abacus/Angus-Reid or Mainstreet), they are dropping too fast in Quebec to secure a majority. The good news for them is that a CPC plurality is now less likely -- not impossible but definitely harder to imagine.

Notice the 95% confidence interval for the Bloc, now starting at 16 (it used to be in the single digits) and going as high as 44. Urban ridings like Hochelaga are now back with the Bloc.

The chances of a majority are back down around 15%. Some polls (Mainstreet) do have the Liberals close to it but others (and the average) show this party quite far from the magic number of 170. Right now, the Liberals would be losing seats in Atlantic and Ontario. The gains they could make in the Prairies and BC don't compensate. And with Quebec not 'cooperating' anymore, it's really hard to see where the remaining 19 seats could come from. Short of a polling error of course.


Full page version here.

Detailed projections

Proj Canada 13 September 2021 by bryanbreguet on Scribd