Vote splitting: complement to article of the HuffPost

Yesterday, I wrote an article about the vote splitting occurring in this election between the Liberals and the NDP. In English and in French.

The main result was that the Conservatives are currently winning 28 seats thanks to it.

Here is the list of the 28 ridings affected. There are technically 72 ridings where CPC is leading but NDP+LPC would be greater, but in most of them, the lead of the Conservative candidate would not be overcome by having a unique candidate (or coalition) between the other two (namely because not all NDP voters for instance would vote Liberals).

Central Nova
New Brunswick Southwest
Saint John-Rothesay
Tobique-Mactaquac
Jonquière
Richmond-Arthabaska
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill
Brampton Centre
Brampton North
Essex
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
Kenora
Markham--Stouffville
Oakville
Oshawa
Calgary Confederation
Edmonton Manning
Edmonton Mill Woods
Edmonton Riverbend
Lethbridge
Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam
Fleetwood-Port Kells
Kamloops-Thompson--Cariboo
Kootenay--Columbia
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge
South Surrey-White Rock
Steveston-Richmond East
Nunavut

In these ridings, if the NDP and Liberals were to run a single candidate, they would likely win. 28 out of 338 isn't that much, but it does currently make the difference between Harper finishing first and third.

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