April 25th 2013: BC projections by the numbers

Once in a while, I'll switch from my usually text heavy posts to straight up, pure numbers. This section is therefore called (unoriginally) By the Numbers.


Outcome
Probability
NDP victory
100%
NDP majority
100%
NDP with 70 seats or more
6.4%
NDP with 50 seats or less
6%
Lib with 10 seats or less
1.3%
Lib with 20 seats or less
48%
Cons with at least 1 seat
44%
Cons with 5 seats or more
1.4%
Green with at least 1 seat
1.2%



Seats
Min Liberals
7
Max Liberals
40
Max Conservative
8
Max green
1



Other
Chances of Christy Clark being elected

51%
   
# ridings where all 4 parties can win

1 (West Vancouver- Sea to sky)
# riding where one party is projected to win 100% of the time
35 (32 NDP, 3 Lib)


Also, here are the latest projections, using the poll from Angus-Reid released today (April 24th). Riding-by-riding projections are here. The 3 points picked-up by the Liberals are really helping. Indeed, with these numbers, there is one scenario (out of 1000) where the BC Liberals would get 40 seats while the BC NDP would get 43. So the race is slightly closer now. If the trend goes on next week, we could actually have some suspense.

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