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July 07, 2010
Welcome to my new blog for electoral forecasting.
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How accurate are polls in Canada? Less than you think!
If you want more updates, follow me on Twitter . I'll post new projections later today, I want to wait for the new Nanos numbers. E...
Canada 2021 simulator, version 2.0 with demographic variables
I just uploaded the version 2.0 of the 2021 simulator . The big change is the addition of demographic variables. I have also made some modif...
Last update to the CPC leadership projections: Bernier still heavy favourite
Mainstreet just released its latest poll for the CPC leadership that is ending this Saturday. With that said, I'm not sure a last minu...
Final projections for the Federal Election 2015: Liberal minority, surprises possible
After the longest campaign in Canadian history, it appears voters have made their choice and will elect a Liberal minority on Monday. There...
Any request?
It's a beautiful Saturday here in Vancouver and I won't be working this afternoon. However, I have a few ideas for some posts, such ...
Projections finales pour la course au PQ 2016
Nous y voici enfin! Le début du scrutin pour élire le (ou la) nouvel chef du PQ. Cette course 2016 fût bien différente de celle de 20...
2 years later, Justin Trudeau heavily favourite for re-election
I just finished the first version of the 2019 model and we have two new polls, one from Abacus and one, today, from Mainstreet Research to...
April 28th: new projections show NDP as official opposition
Harris-Decima finally released a new poll. They were pretty much the only pollster which didn't publish a poll since the NDP's surge...
Final projections for the 2023 OLP leadership race
Alright, for the dozen of people who care, here's my final projections for the 2023 Ontario Liberals' leadership race. The voting is...
Final projections for Alberta 2023: a UCP majority
While it looked like this Alberta could become a really close one, the reality after a full campaign is that there is a clear favorite: Dani...
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Pollsters and electoral ressources
Poll Position (France)
Election Almanac
All polls of the 2011 election (wikipedia)
Leger
Harris-Decima
Nanos Research
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Ekos Politics