Projections updates September 21st: LPC down in first post-blackface polls

Quick projections updates based on the latest Nanos and the Ontario-only giant poll from Campaign Research. Both have data post 18th, so after the blackface incident. Nanos even has 2 of its 3 days of rolling data after the reveal. And the LPC is dropping fast based on what we see so far. The incident, coupled with the week-long trend of the CPC gaining over the LPC, now puts the party of Andrew Scheer almost 5 points ahead, while it was trailing by 3 a week ago!

Anyway, here are the updated projections. The LPC is still ahead since my average is based on multiple polls, but the trend is clearly there.



Riding by riding projections:

   Proj 21.09.2019 by bryanbreguet on Scribd

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