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July 07, 2010
Welcome to my new blog for electoral forecasting.
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How accurate are polls in Canada? Less than you think!
If you want more updates, follow me on Twitter . I'll post new projections later today, I want to wait for the new Nanos numbers. E...
Any request?
It's a beautiful Saturday here in Vancouver and I won't be working this afternoon. However, I have a few ideas for some posts, such ...
April 18th: new AR and Leger polls showing NDP surge
We've got two new (large) polls, from Angus-Reid and Leger. Both show a big lead for the Tories, including in Ontario. But they mostly s...
25 septembre: un regard sur la situation au Québec
Le Québec joue un rôle central dans n'importe quelle élection fédérale mais c'est d'autant plus le cas cette année car cette pr...
Some comments about the debate
We don't know yet who won the debate. Yes, yes, you can have the pundits' opinion on CBC or CTV, but the real test will be to see ho...
April 28th: new projections show NDP as official opposition
Harris-Decima finally released a new poll. They were pretty much the only pollster which didn't publish a poll since the NDP's surge...
2 years later, Justin Trudeau heavily favourite for re-election
I just finished the first version of the 2019 model and we have two new polls, one from Abacus and one, today, from Mainstreet Research to...
April 6th: New projections. Majority slipping away from the Tories
With a couple of newly released polls from Nanos, Ekos and Harris-Decima in the last few days, it is time for a major update to the seats pr...
November 28th 2013: How wrong were the polls in Brandon-Souris?
Out of the four by-election last Monday, Brandon-Souris was the only one were the polls ( from Forum ) picked the wrong winner ( the polls ...
Ontario Conservatives still heavily favourites but NDP on the rise
As the election officially started in Ontario, some potentially important variations have occurred . The NDP in particular seems to be on t...
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Pollsters and electoral ressources
Poll Position (France)
Election Almanac
All polls of the 2011 election (wikipedia)
Leger
Harris-Decima
Nanos Research
Angus Reid
Ekos Politics