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July 07, 2010
Welcome to my new blog for electoral forecasting.
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How accurate are polls in Canada? Less than you think!
If you want more updates, follow me on Twitter . I'll post new projections later today, I want to wait for the new Nanos numbers. E...
Présidentielle Française 2017: à 3 semaines du 1er tour
Il ne reste que trois semaines avant le 1er tour de l'élection présidentielle française. Les sondages de la semaine passée montrent su...
The chances of a majority are falling for Ford while polls disagree with each others
Yesterday, we got the latest Ipsos poll . And for the first time during this campaign, it was showing the NDP ahead (by 1 point) among deci...
Final projections for the 2023 OLP leadership race
Alright, for the dozen of people who care, here's my final projections for the 2023 Ontario Liberals' leadership race. The voting is...
Can you get a quality poll for $200?
Important notice: please do NOT use the numbers of this poll/experiment and tweet them. It was an experiment only. Plus, the poll was actual...
Projections finales pour la course au PQ 2016
Nous y voici enfin! Le début du scrutin pour élire le (ou la) nouvel chef du PQ. Cette course 2016 fût bien différente de celle de 20...
In free fall in Quebec, Andrew Scheer needs a good performance tonight at the English debate
Finally, the leaders' debate with everybody, including Justin Trudeau! Tonight at 7PM Eastern time. Beyond the obvious entertainment v...
Final projections for the 2022 CPC leadership race: Poilievre easily on the first round
I thought that my quasi final projections would actually double as my actual final ones but Elections Canada released some more complete fu...
The Conservative Leadership 2020: MacKay and O'Toole favourite but Lewis has a chance
Three years after Andrew Scheer dramatically defeated Maxime Bernier on the 13th and last round (after being behind for the first 12th!), w...
Projections update Saturday May 26th 2018
Not a lot to write about today. While Forum did come out yesterday with the NDP at a crazy 47%, other pollsters seemed to agree the race wa...
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