tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20016942947624752042024-02-20T03:08:28.740-08:00TOO CLOSE TO CALLSi la Tendance se MaintientBryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comBlogger649125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-84182000654949229852023-11-26T01:43:00.000-08:002023-11-26T01:43:13.225-08:00Final projections for the 2023 OLP leadership race<p style="text-align: justify;">Alright, for the dozen of people who care, here's my final projections for the 2023 Ontario Liberals' leadership race. The voting is happening this weekend and results will be unveiled on December 2nd.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">As usual with leadership races, I make the assumption that fundraising data is the best data available. This has worked remarkably well on a few occasions. I pretty much <a href="https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2022/09/final-projections-for-2022-cpc.html" target="_blank">nailed the CPC 2022 race</a>, while I was <a href="https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2020/08/the-conservative-leadership-2020-mackay.html" target="_blank">alright but less close in 2020</a> (had O'Toole winning on my last update on Twitter) or <a href="https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2017/05/last-update-to-cpc-leadership.html" target="_blank">2017 </a>(I had Bernier ultimately winning; Note: both 'errors' mostly were caused by Quebec with its really low number of members). I was also very successful in two PQ races in Quebec, <a href="https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2020/09/course-trois-au-pq.html">in 2020</a> but particular <a href="https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2016/10/projections-finales-pour-la-course-au.html" target="_blank">in 2016</a> where polls all had Cloutier as favorite.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Leadership races are weird. We usually don't get good polls (except maybe for the CPC races where Mainstreet manages to get the membership list), rules are weird (points per riding, etc) and turnout is often low. So while I really like covering such races, keep in mind that projections are less accurate than for regular elections.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Alright, with this behind us, here are my projections for the OLP race.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi8eu-tgEFissjIzKL_Adb3vStgK3pJwe20zspns0ASpc4D_9beH8mxGpWLOJHKJNRdR0SPs_lAdlfSRip7Qg0BtyENr4F2Eyz-8WD6fpeuLvCXrcE-Z5tbNV5mWBGEAGbXj8MXJuItQtNbbuJOztdHD5J_WfrRACZCTAA6jXJoRn0K5TNXxcXTUCMw0oA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1201" data-original-width="775" height="442" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi8eu-tgEFissjIzKL_Adb3vStgK3pJwe20zspns0ASpc4D_9beH8mxGpWLOJHKJNRdR0SPs_lAdlfSRip7Qg0BtyENr4F2Eyz-8WD6fpeuLvCXrcE-Z5tbNV5mWBGEAGbXj8MXJuItQtNbbuJOztdHD5J_WfrRACZCTAA6jXJoRn0K5TNXxcXTUCMw0oA=w285-h442" width="285" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Yes the intervals are large. I looked at my accuracy over 5 leadership races and it told me that while I was 4-5% off in average, the correct margins of error to represent the full uncertainty were around 10% (for a candidate at 50%, less for candidates that are lower). It's not an attempt by me to cover my ass, it simply represents the fact that leadership races are hard to call.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Bonnie Crombie is the favorite but the uncertainty is such that all four candidates have a path. Some paths are just narrower than others. In order of certainty, I'd say this:</p><p style="text-align: justify;">1) Crombie will be first after the first round</p><p style="text-align: justify;">2) Nate Erskine-Smith will finish 2nd after the first round and face Crombie in the final round</p><p style="text-align: justify;">3) Crombie will win</p><p style="text-align: justify;">I wouldn't put a lot of money down on my third call though.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>The data</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">I have used is a mix of the fundraising from <a href="https://www.elections.on.ca/en/political-financing0.html" target="_blank">Elections Ontario</a> as well as data from <a href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%201-m&geo=CA-ON&q=%2Fm%2F02rjbhb,%2Fg%2F11bwgw4cf_,%2Fm%2F0gmflgn,%2Fm%2F03cf0_z,%2Fg%2F11py__9jfz&hl=en-CA" target="_blank">Google Trends</a>. The last one might seem stupid but it has proven to work remarkably well in previous races. For the fundraising data, I did an average of the (unique) number of donors (both over the entire race as well as since September 1st) and the amounts collected. I give a much bigger weight to the number of donors as one vote is one vote, no matter if the person donated $200 or $1000. With that being said, higher amounts usually indicate support among older voters and their turnout is stronger, so I wanted to use this part of the data. If you want to know the details, I gave the number of donors a weight of 50% while the number of donors since September got 25% (the candidates could only sign new members until September 5th, thus the Sept. cutoff in my calculations; It's simply a way to measure the late momentum) and the total amounts collected got the last 25%. As for how I mixed Google Trends, I did a 75-25 average (75 on the fundraising). The weights are mostly 'vibes'. I don't believe the exact weights matter, I just want to mix all the data available. Again, leadership races are just harder to predict and my experience has been that mixing works best.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Important details: we only get the data for donations over $200. I suspect that Nate Erskine-Smith has more donations under $200 than Crombie as he's targeting young voters.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Google Trends is interesting as Bonnie Crombie has been crushing it there from the start and Nate has been surprisingly bad on this metric. Yes Google Trends is mostly a popularity contest but so are leadership races.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Crombie's lead, depending on the metric, goes from 30 points (Google Trends) to being tied (number of unique donors since September; She is actually 3 donors behind Nate! He definitely had the momentum at the end). She also has the lead when it comes to new members signed, although not all campaigns reported numbers (Crombie said 38,700, Naqvi said 31k and Shamji, before dropping and endorsing Crombie, said 12,063. I don't believe Hsu and Erskine have revealed numbers. The party has said there were 103k members total, so assuming Crombie, Naqvi and Shamji told the truth, Erskine and Hsu add up to 21k. This seems low for Erskine but there is likely a reason why he said he "wouldn't play the number game" and didn't reveal his numbers. You don't do that when your numbers are good. Just ask Jean Charest!</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Finally, Crombie has been <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ontario_Liberal_Party_leadership_election#Opinion_polling" target="_blank">leading in the polls</a> by huge margins, but it's among OLP voters, not members.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>Second choices</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Out of the 2516 donations, 207 were from people who donated more than once (including 93 people who donated to more than one campaign). Using donations by the same person to multiple campaigns, I got the following pairing table. It's based on so few observations that I don't feel confident using it to make projections past the first round.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgy1tQbc-hD3uKFe60Fa31a2SAY5b5A-QHNAmK49bb07s6LaeUbhdS6gvWh_WzAqinAcH3eYuOaPsWJgRxEgeRPxNhRYqbMtwX0X-irsmADUq9RnPKlXWEAY6hspQjd-nkYutdfwxcpSyYoteyGMAWoeasonKKilG3g8lbiXg5XKEhF3jXM031qfo-XQ5g" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="229" data-original-width="817" height="129" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgy1tQbc-hD3uKFe60Fa31a2SAY5b5A-QHNAmK49bb07s6LaeUbhdS6gvWh_WzAqinAcH3eYuOaPsWJgRxEgeRPxNhRYqbMtwX0X-irsmADUq9RnPKlXWEAY6hspQjd-nkYutdfwxcpSyYoteyGMAWoeasonKKilG3g8lbiXg5XKEhF3jXM031qfo-XQ5g=w459-h129" width="459" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p style="text-align: justify;">I'll say one thing: I think the narrative online that Crombie has no down ballot support among the other three candidates is not consistent with the data. I wouldn't be surprised if this were a Twitter-isn't-real-life thing. I'm also very curious as to how effective the deal between Erskine and Naqvi will be. We remember how Kennedy delivered his delegates to Dion in 2007 but that was during a convention, very different. In a related manner, how much of the Shamji endorsement will be useful to Crombie? Hard to say.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">The huge uncertainty (complete lack of info really) regarding second choices is really what is preventing me from making a more official call. I believe Crombie will be ahead after the first round (even though I'm not sure if it'll be by a lot or a little), I believe Nate will face her in the final round but I can't really tell how Hsu and Naqvi supporters will vote once their preferred candidate is eliminated. My intuition tells me that Crombie better have a strong lead after the first if she doesn't want to become the next Bernier or MacKay, but I suspect the lead required is less important than some on Twitter would like you to believe.</p>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-42229697934052652192023-10-02T17:17:00.001-07:002023-10-02T17:17:16.688-07:00Final projections for Manitoba 2023: NDP majority, or how Stefanson is no Danielle Smith<p style="text-align: justify;">I haven't covered much of the Manitoba election except for a few tweets on Twitter before I got permanently suspended. Still, here are the final projections. Please keep in mind that I spent a LOT less time following this election and building the model than for other elections. I also know nothing of Manitoba and its politics. Finally, we got very few polls (although the trend is similar across polls and they seem to agree on the NDP being well ahead).</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">If you don't tryst the polls, just use the <a href="https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/manitoba-2023-simulator.html" target="_blank">simulator here</a>.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Final projections based (note: I'll update if we get more polls before midnight and if these polls significantly shift my projections):</p><p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjea0nQSWJmOYSoDbzCVyhh7_vsvS2VwcRUghMyCYGBRDqzInT3awqr_5PbLtBaL3LTzM6dCGRvu6oJURJ9w1yDHXNA6xnxem6qi13kfcKwJs3p6ac3o4nuB1KBb2-nH2S7TaVaqYK0rdl4HAle7d2-9hN8CQ9_FAelBKhcoU6FxakaeDfCRzeDHKrGFQ0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="122" data-original-width="507" height="77" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjea0nQSWJmOYSoDbzCVyhh7_vsvS2VwcRUghMyCYGBRDqzInT3awqr_5PbLtBaL3LTzM6dCGRvu6oJURJ9w1yDHXNA6xnxem6qi13kfcKwJs3p6ac3o4nuB1KBb2-nH2S7TaVaqYK0rdl4HAle7d2-9hN8CQ9_FAelBKhcoU6FxakaeDfCRzeDHKrGFQ0" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">I didn't build a probabilistic model so I don't have the exact chances for each party but given that I don't find a strong imbalance between popular vote and seats, a PC victory would require a significant polling error. Basically the PC needs to do 3 points better and the NDP 3 points worse. The odds of such an error are 10%.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Another way to look at it is to notice that the PC basically needs a clean sweep of the close races (within 5%) to win 28 seats (and even there, NDP+Lib would be above...). Such a scenario would, once again, require a systematic polling error in the favour of the PC. Could vote efficiency save Stefanson? Maybe but she needs to expect the Liberals to either split the vote more or switch to her. All in all, it's pretty clear the safe bet is on a NDP majority tomorrow. Any other result would be a pretty bug surprise.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">The NDP dominates in Winnipeg while the PC rules the rest of the province. However, the NDP is closer in the rest (10 points behind) than the PC is in Winnipeg (20 points behind). Northern Manitoba is also a huge source of rural seats for the NDP.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Ultimately, and keep in mind that I don't follow that much, but it seems to me that Stefanson failed to do what Danielle Smith did in Alberta: win the campaign (and the debate). The PC campaign hasn't been as good as the Smith's one and Stefanson didn't win the debate (Smith absolutely crushed it). To Stafanson's credit, it seems Manitoba doesn't have a Calgary, that is a conservative leaning city. We have seen at the federal level (both elections and polls) that Manitoba is shifting left and this is mostly driven by Winnipeg.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Manitoba follows Alberta in one way though: the left now seems united. The Green party has essentially disappeared and the Liberals will likely finish below 10%. It's impressive to see how the modern Left in Canada is willing to unite despite disagreements. Well in Manitoba, Alberta and BC, not in Ontario...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">Here are the maps as well as the detailed projections by ridings.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhDLI0P1REsrehAEIpyU1JcoJAUueK9i7VcOAGhrqrGq-MRCcvAdmD59zi_Ht56jC2SVapfcbcc4r7AOgnUU3iajLxkoIJCIpt4LuDcADu5O1vMAmFxWF8R2s4-L0F6R145sL_4EMj_ajtH-Qek8Sav89MWZOF2uBZxsNNrl4MZy9nhMldXmz9XsIVrp2c" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1416" data-original-width="967" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhDLI0P1REsrehAEIpyU1JcoJAUueK9i7VcOAGhrqrGq-MRCcvAdmD59zi_Ht56jC2SVapfcbcc4r7AOgnUU3iajLxkoIJCIpt4LuDcADu5O1vMAmFxWF8R2s4-L0F6R145sL_4EMj_ajtH-Qek8Sav89MWZOF2uBZxsNNrl4MZy9nhMldXmz9XsIVrp2c=w437-h640" width="437" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Winnipeg</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhnCfSQ4PM-AO2yXqQa2-YYyLzWUxIvVqnCiAZ-Dm1_GmES5sme7rN6W7eaiGxZQgfSPCGJwrSLo9RnFAeC-DmcKjhTBIGmL_bP3bWKOYcn-CuC6Ibb17j4LA_AYKm6zZ_J8-zRdW7ldS402JecFK4W6AIBTdg5HT_fgRsOyi6mPp2JJsZ8SPEEPtSlwpw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img data-original-height="1468" data-original-width="1377" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhnCfSQ4PM-AO2yXqQa2-YYyLzWUxIvVqnCiAZ-Dm1_GmES5sme7rN6W7eaiGxZQgfSPCGJwrSLo9RnFAeC-DmcKjhTBIGmL_bP3bWKOYcn-CuC6Ibb17j4LA_AYKm6zZ_J8-zRdW7ldS402JecFK4W6AIBTdg5HT_fgRsOyi6mPp2JJsZ8SPEEPtSlwpw=w600-h640" width="600" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0b7TFB5lFwavguXvcrKBFp_oH8sD17CFCdXdKgY1aPvXVwbeaFjLHe3T1YX_LH2hqFKd0a7oxW2BRvoL-OQl_6xqcKrWidsyyMMD-DNNmQI2x9CWzbE2Kt-XhrnD8fuI3LjJTuyqY3Tma7dCWlXO2Wp4UGBfUSJ1ulNu6YyzbVrXIWVuwDX2DQE3FKOI/s2437/Manitoba%20final%20proj%202023.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2437" data-original-width="1094" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0b7TFB5lFwavguXvcrKBFp_oH8sD17CFCdXdKgY1aPvXVwbeaFjLHe3T1YX_LH2hqFKd0a7oxW2BRvoL-OQl_6xqcKrWidsyyMMD-DNNmQI2x9CWzbE2Kt-XhrnD8fuI3LjJTuyqY3Tma7dCWlXO2Wp4UGBfUSJ1ulNu6YyzbVrXIWVuwDX2DQE3FKOI/w288-h640/Manitoba%20final%20proj%202023.png" width="288" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div><br /></div><br /><br /><p></p>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-20925650226631323472023-05-28T18:40:00.003-07:002023-05-28T21:53:54.782-07:00Final projections for Alberta 2023: a UCP majority<p style="text-align: justify;">While it looked like this Alberta could become a really close one, the reality after a full campaign is that there is a clear favorite: Danielle Smith and the UCP. Her chances aren't 100% but they are high enough for me to make a confident call. If you feel my polling average is wrong, just use your own numbers in <a href="https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/alberta-2023-simulator.html" target="_blank">the simulator</a>. Also <a href="https://twitter.com/2closetocall" target="_blank">follow me on Twitter</a> for more updates and data.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">The NDP does have a chance but it's a very narrow path to 44 seats. Basically they would need to sweep all the projected close races in Calgary. That either requires an incredible vote efficiency and/or an underestimation by the polls. Given Alberta, the latter is quite unlikely. It's not impossible though and some polls (the ThinkHQ one for Calgary or the Mainstreet riding polls in the same city) have shown situations where the NDP was at +6 to +11 in the city and that could be enough to win 44+ seats. Forum released a poll late tonight and they had the NDP +2 in the CMA. That would likely mean +6-7 in the city. Their seat projections? 45 UCP, 42 NDP. My model is the same, if I modify the numbers to boost the NDP by 2 points in the Calgary CMA and decrease the UCP by 2, I get 44-43.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">The math here shows two things. First, the regional polling average is such that the UCP is still leading in the Calgary region. And that means a UCP government. The NDP cannot win the election without winning in Calgary overall. Secondly, even if the polls are off by 4 points in total, I still think the UCP wins! So again, a surprise is possible but is far from likely. Especially since polls in Alberta have had a strong tendency to underestimate the Conservatives (5 points in 2019 and 2021; almost as much in 2015).</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">The real uncertainty is more about the size of the UCP majority. There are so many close races in Calgary, all with their own variables (candidates, demographics, etc) that it's not really possible to be sure what will happen. The difference between being right or wrong in your projections could very well come down to luck. I'd say that any result between 45-52 for the UCP would not surprise me. The confidence intervals you see below are at 95% confidence. If I were to reduce to 50% confidence, you indeed get 45-52. It only takes a few points in Calgary for the projections and the map to look <i>very </i>different. But it takes quite a polling miss for a NDP win.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">This campaign didn't turn out to be a very interesting one in my opinion. The NDP failed to make a case as to why people should fire Smith beyond a few scandals here and there. They never successfully made the case Albertans would be better off under a NDP government. There was a time in the middle of the campaign where things looked to go the NDP way but it didn't last very long. Smith winning the debate also helped a lot, especially since Google Trends seem to indicate people paid the most attention during that time.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4HkFRfFHZABjPyF63k4AYGDw_Jgl85U0HO5AWCiLFU4mmklc48Sv_h_oo8bMY2tM5s_FC_ztaW5b38B9TUq75Hi-680iIOl-3dFVkxr3_w9Jyz71XmMG987t3nuE7hhxgZ9Jtm0xSbEoHD-gnSjTasaSSnVBlX0OLumgp_23fzrFIK-HAN2ByVYQB/s1884/Alberta%20Google%20Trends%20leader%20final.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1113" data-original-width="1884" height="378" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4HkFRfFHZABjPyF63k4AYGDw_Jgl85U0HO5AWCiLFU4mmklc48Sv_h_oo8bMY2tM5s_FC_ztaW5b38B9TUq75Hi-680iIOl-3dFVkxr3_w9Jyz71XmMG987t3nuE7hhxgZ9Jtm0xSbEoHD-gnSjTasaSSnVBlX0OLumgp_23fzrFIK-HAN2ByVYQB/w640-h378/Alberta%20Google%20Trends%20leader%20final.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: justify;">One odd thing with polls has been their tendency to see the NDP doing relatively well in the rest of Alberta (sometimes as high as 40%!; they got 21% in 2019) while the UCP is showing good numbers in Edmonton. My projections have Lesser Slave Lake close but I don't believe my projections (but hey, that's what the model says) and the NDP winning Lethbridge East. The UCP is holding strong in the Edmonton ring/donut and I know some UCP members are convinced they'll actually win seats in Edmonton. I doubt it but look at the South of the city if you are looking for a surprise.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Ultimately it comes down to Calgary and, as mentioned before, the polls are simply not showing the lead the NDP needs. Polls have been all over the place there but that would be consistent with the UCP and NDP being close to each other. I have worked a lot harder on Calgary. I looked at the areas that went left between 2019 and 2021 (federal level). I have made adjustments based on quadrants from the few polls we got. Still, as I mentioned previously, it's hard to be super confident on any close races.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">So anyway, here are the projections. Thank you for following me (mostly on Twitter these days) and I hope you enjoyed the coverage of this election. It sure was more interesting than the Ontario and Quebec ones!</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwXNYfvIjSC_ptPP-8EmXhq3OZepm3kyoqC4_uvis1zVuM8YyEz28vIQVCS0E-CizfwKAW2AXI99uUmlB_eMOmGN3eZdonCh06UmSTv8OzokoFfUol5XBzL7rXhsy9bmx-uzDWfWXPuGwwPDWXMxI-DTvhItgN8O2xgx70muU4H0HajeHtygDnFWhg/s1984/Alberta%20final%20projections%202023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1984" data-original-width="1599" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwXNYfvIjSC_ptPP-8EmXhq3OZepm3kyoqC4_uvis1zVuM8YyEz28vIQVCS0E-CizfwKAW2AXI99uUmlB_eMOmGN3eZdonCh06UmSTv8OzokoFfUol5XBzL7rXhsy9bmx-uzDWfWXPuGwwPDWXMxI-DTvhItgN8O2xgx70muU4H0HajeHtygDnFWhg/w516-h640/Alberta%20final%20projections%202023.png" width="516" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: justify;">The map</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6j2B5zpegbOLMDg3urKD63PAz7c0Jwsao6Wr5MQzliM1xqHOaPd0Q84UR2eL2gw8xWDxcRH0Sc2kS89Ssf7p6nQUPjftn5NSdLoESNYhunLw6LCJvdKkzLFWELhjjdw_nHat0krzOX4f7RvCBeCtvb7xS4EGnV9HYDZhN7BNENA-BwVOekqGc6qlR/s3482/Alberta%20final%20projections%202023%20map.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1760" data-original-width="3482" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6j2B5zpegbOLMDg3urKD63PAz7c0Jwsao6Wr5MQzliM1xqHOaPd0Q84UR2eL2gw8xWDxcRH0Sc2kS89Ssf7p6nQUPjftn5NSdLoESNYhunLw6LCJvdKkzLFWELhjjdw_nHat0krzOX4f7RvCBeCtvb7xS4EGnV9HYDZhN7BNENA-BwVOekqGc6qlR/w640-h324/Alberta%20final%20projections%202023%20map.png" width="640" /></a></div><p style="text-align: justify;">Interactive version <a href="https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/bryan.breguet/viz/Albertaprojections2023/Sheet1?publish=yes" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Detailed projections:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixNszXyZo3ppaiOtlC4rXQO1N_KT69f6RoiVV8ngw9_SkqnJDkGQYV9ewGBuvQer5XmGCm5QBkjUWqAzNxwRGF4KoyCFhxmnw8PKLUgIOMu9faTDLblG9ss5MmZlG3wZnUnUgYxelM0TH0zIGkxbxxP4O1SafCTaYu5Kw03z7P0o3VVhC3PKT-VJgf/s4371/Alberta%20final%20projections%202023%20details.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4371" data-original-width="1914" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixNszXyZo3ppaiOtlC4rXQO1N_KT69f6RoiVV8ngw9_SkqnJDkGQYV9ewGBuvQer5XmGCm5QBkjUWqAzNxwRGF4KoyCFhxmnw8PKLUgIOMu9faTDLblG9ss5MmZlG3wZnUnUgYxelM0TH0zIGkxbxxP4O1SafCTaYu5Kw03z7P0o3VVhC3PKT-VJgf/w280-h640/Alberta%20final%20projections%202023%20details.png" width="280" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-34813217034958355482023-05-23T12:07:00.002-07:002023-05-23T22:08:06.311-07:00Is the Alberta election a close race or is the UCP well ahead? Well it depends how you look at it<p style="text-align: justify;">Whenever I give an interview and am asked about my model, I always say the same thing: the most important variable to get right is the popular vote. If you nail the percentages for each party in a province, you are 90% there. People always believe most of my work is from building the model. It's not wrong in that it is where I spend most of my time, but it isn't the most important part. Put it another way: a simple model with the right percentages as inputs will do better than a 'sophisticated' model with demographics and what not but the incorrect percentages.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Why am I talking about this? Because for this Alberta election, the percentages you get depend on how you look at the polls. Let me explain. First of all, it is well known that polls in Alberta tend to underestimate the Conservatives. It was the case in 2019 (see below) and even in 2015 (even though nobody really noticed). It was also the case at the federal level in 2021 (more than 5 points underestimation for the Tories). Part of it is likely caused by turnout where older voters vote more. To deal with this issue, I already allocated a majority of undecided voters to the UCP. In this election, I allocate 60% to the UCP and 40% to the NDP. This alone makes the UCP's lead, province-wide, move from +1.8 to +2.9.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0Un6pS_ZacV-_Jl5orYyQui1mqegJ1iHLttBeeYiQ1xBNuzY1-3GFn1OD7I2HiGH5s6NO5vpg_a0lVkjjRx0wRgApBF3c_q6q0S0oVDIPfwL85Nm5qWJJche9voa2oKqhyzQiBDc_WtgVZ6G6mUFbBr2VCWcSz_yfBXkMajOS5LPuUcR7aS7Z7nMy/s3438/Performance%20Polls%20Alberta%202019.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1407" data-original-width="3438" height="164" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0Un6pS_ZacV-_Jl5orYyQui1mqegJ1iHLttBeeYiQ1xBNuzY1-3GFn1OD7I2HiGH5s6NO5vpg_a0lVkjjRx0wRgApBF3c_q6q0S0oVDIPfwL85Nm5qWJJche9voa2oKqhyzQiBDc_WtgVZ6G6mUFbBr2VCWcSz_yfBXkMajOS5LPuUcR7aS7Z7nMy/w400-h164/Performance%20Polls%20Alberta%202019.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Performance of polls in Alberta in 2019</td></tr></tbody></table><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">But there is something weirder this time. Polls, in general, are not internally consistent. When you take the raw polling average of the province-wide numbers, you currently get 47.3% vs 45.5%. But if you instead take the average by regions (Calgary, Edmonton and the rest) and you then average those 3 numbers (with the correct weights to reflect the number of voters in each region), you get 49.4% vs 43.4% (that is without adjusting the undecided, just the raw average of the numbers by regions as given by the pollsters).</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">It doesn't make sense and something must be off with the weights of some pollsters. The more ridiculous example of this is the most recent poll by <a href="https://researchco.ca/2023/05/18/abpoli-ableg-2023/" target="_blank">Research Co</a>. They have the UCP winning the rest of Alberta 63-31, losing Edmonton 35-61 (so it basically cancels out but the UCP still should have an edge) and then the UCP wins Calgary 52-44. Surely the UCP should be ahead province-wide, right? Average 52, 35 and 63 and that's higher than 44, 31 and 61, right? Nope! Research Co has the NDP winning the province 49-47! It makes no mathematical sense. It just can't be. Research Co is an extreme example but we have the same issue overall it seems.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">So I'm now left with a decision: do I use the province-wide numbers as main inputs like I usually like (more accurate). After adjusting for the undecided and the lack of candidates for some parties, that would give me 49-46. Or I use the average of the 3 regions and that gives me (after adjustments), 51-44. (Note: no matter which province-wide numbers I use as input, I still make further adjustments to match the regional numbers; Right now it means increasing the NDP in Calgary as they seem up more than in the rest of the province).</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">You might think that 49-46 vs 51-44 isn't a big deal. Wrong! That's the difference between 43-44 projections and 50-37! It's really all because of Calgary, a few points can shift 5-6 seats. Since the riding polls are more consistent with the 51-44 scenario, I decided to use do an average and use 50-45 as my input. But yes, it does mean I'm quite far from a raw polling average. But at least I explain my reasoning and steps.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">So, with the new numbers, here are the projections. They changed a lot from my recent ones on Twitter and I usually don't like this. But the permanent internal inconsistencies have convinced me I needed to do something. I might be wrong and the popular vote will be much closer. But that's a risk I'm willing to take.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKb0g9NiRoD0oh09DY-w4Ii6J5I5jOZuPAkMuwAqlqDgzzdmLdmwTZDgIsxc8XRRf1rE2DFq_gEBgQ7IswtOJRginwcyKUqna8MWHxMRMDzvKp_1c_cmr0W6mxgxYM2f46l_oKOyRjwJFRHYpBBo0GzS3C95_NiTk8oGVAO2aeU60V3cjZTkb49xT5/s1965/Proj%20alberta%20may%2023.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1965" data-original-width="1599" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKb0g9NiRoD0oh09DY-w4Ii6J5I5jOZuPAkMuwAqlqDgzzdmLdmwTZDgIsxc8XRRf1rE2DFq_gEBgQ7IswtOJRginwcyKUqna8MWHxMRMDzvKp_1c_cmr0W6mxgxYM2f46l_oKOyRjwJFRHYpBBo0GzS3C95_NiTk8oGVAO2aeU60V3cjZTkb49xT5/w325-h400/Proj%20alberta%20may%2023.png" width="325" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgmEcGaH4PVFyIzQnJAhQLNhjLSLAAPXGJO0zTSRSgee4RdXRbatObyacn1agraqQ86leEC6yibHeZ2S1G_c59rkIGi25at_Rxpus41HnMszMqvdL3wWX1Xf_9wSTY9Yi6QLimUSO12VKkmKUKX6fjVUcWo37_cS7lSTrJGkmmkJ4ZKVuW3fi2ffUF/s3720/Proj%20alberta%20may%2023%20map.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1690" data-original-width="3720" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgmEcGaH4PVFyIzQnJAhQLNhjLSLAAPXGJO0zTSRSgee4RdXRbatObyacn1agraqQ86leEC6yibHeZ2S1G_c59rkIGi25at_Rxpus41HnMszMqvdL3wWX1Xf_9wSTY9Yi6QLimUSO12VKkmKUKX6fjVUcWo37_cS7lSTrJGkmmkJ4ZKVuW3fi2ffUF/w640-h290/Proj%20alberta%20may%2023%20map.png" width="640" /></a></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">The NDP still has a chance but it'll require the 'Mainstreet scenario' of winning Calgary by like 6-8 points. Other pollsters don't have such a lead. Ultimately 22% chances of winning align well with my subjective reading of the race. I think the NDP has better chances in Calgary Bow (strong candidate) and maybe in Elbow. Then add Lethbridge East and Morinville-St. Albert and that's 41. But right now, it's hard for me to see the NDP go over 41-42 seats unless polls were quite off in Calgary.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1JW3LaKrNKAgPjA9sdlf2MMnlsidJ21A6tnZunRzGNjeF_-L7fnk5ia_3kAnc3pn9p-carpdeJHxavDTRvmOfyKy1SOLpJZAJTR8lnM1i65R_uOktbw3XzYL37DjU_SU3WzblH8mQsrQVPeehE1iO2qfQQoZpKx6kRZ5c4lRKvkmDHYTDCqHHA5ro/s4371/Proj%20alberta%20may%2023%20details.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4371" data-original-width="2003" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1JW3LaKrNKAgPjA9sdlf2MMnlsidJ21A6tnZunRzGNjeF_-L7fnk5ia_3kAnc3pn9p-carpdeJHxavDTRvmOfyKy1SOLpJZAJTR8lnM1i65R_uOktbw3XzYL37DjU_SU3WzblH8mQsrQVPeehE1iO2qfQQoZpKx6kRZ5c4lRKvkmDHYTDCqHHA5ro/w293-h640/Proj%20alberta%20may%2023%20details.png" width="293" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-15749503290949592242023-05-14T11:14:00.001-07:002023-05-14T11:14:48.395-07:00The Alberta election is now too close to call!<p style="text-align: justify;">After a difficult week for Danielle Smith (multiple controversies and scandals), the recent polls have started to show a shift towards the NDP. The <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/alberta-politics-ndp-take-lead/" target="_blank">Abacus </a>poll yesterday had the NDP ahead by 11 (!) province-wide while the (for subscribers only) <a href="https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/alberta-dashboard/" target="_blank">Mainstreet numbers</a> have the UCP ahead overall but trailing significantly in Calgary.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">I still have other, older polls in my average (Leger, ThinkHQ, etc) but my projections now show a race that is literally too close to call. Now, let's be clear, polls in Alberta have had a strong tendency to underestimate the PC/UCP, so it's possible Smith is still favored. But I technically do partially account for this by allocating more undecided to the UCP.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">I'd like to address the weird result where the NDP is ahead in the seat count but has lower chances of winning. This isn't a mistake. This is because the NDP is currently projected to win 6 out of 8 close races in Calgary. When I run simulations, I have some with the NDP beating its poll numbers while other simulations will have this party below. What is happening here is that if we look at what would happen if the NDP did better than the polls, it doesn't change much. The NDP is already winning basically everything it can. But if the we look at scenarios where the UCP beats the polls, then the UCP swings back to 48-49 seats. So overall, if we account for the uncertainty that exists, the UCP is still slightly favored.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhilTzIwiMjSZawWPQvgkABqfDvvhYXmmOJHG2ESktulZnDQcOCFiTR1adxsn7STRUoivGGxMlCwF4pLSpLpDQSlK2-BiFb-boeaP0w3N-1rv2ixoaxWIPKLXukkD8W1L9owGsY3YSP9Q30RyFbBj3kk0PV-ZKx5Hwxj6s2m7YlyabcGNPQmrR5g7-J/s1217/Proj%20Alberta%20May%2014th.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1217" data-original-width="1089" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhilTzIwiMjSZawWPQvgkABqfDvvhYXmmOJHG2ESktulZnDQcOCFiTR1adxsn7STRUoivGGxMlCwF4pLSpLpDQSlK2-BiFb-boeaP0w3N-1rv2ixoaxWIPKLXukkD8W1L9owGsY3YSP9Q30RyFbBj3kk0PV-ZKx5Hwxj6s2m7YlyabcGNPQmrR5g7-J/w358-h400/Proj%20Alberta%20May%2014th.png" width="358" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>The map<div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTCGdOzMTHOKDtv7F9C8w7QCU73Tqp3zgQw4MqDydfX3iWx85JoxW1KtK335Izyw-Eqx4Yldb5li41ynpW-uQLFdtcOuJJF9H6XSaNnOhbkFbnYDQPrk-jbIAFyi8IZbaulBsFPJcVB50JwtGmJwSVMaxuogJsz40B7fyJo93TRAegkfo9HRMpISHk/s2877/Proj%20Alberta%20May%2014%20map.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1705" data-original-width="2877" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTCGdOzMTHOKDtv7F9C8w7QCU73Tqp3zgQw4MqDydfX3iWx85JoxW1KtK335Izyw-Eqx4Yldb5li41ynpW-uQLFdtcOuJJF9H6XSaNnOhbkFbnYDQPrk-jbIAFyi8IZbaulBsFPJcVB50JwtGmJwSVMaxuogJsz40B7fyJo93TRAegkfo9HRMpISHk/w640-h380/Proj%20Alberta%20May%2014%20map.png" width="640" /></a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Interactive <a href="https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/bryan.breguet/viz/Albertaprojections2023/Sheet1?publish=yes" target="_blank">version here</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>The <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/645275864/Projections-Alberta-May-14th-2023" target="_blank">riding by riding pdf</a>.<br /><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p></div>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-44279995729854100602023-05-05T16:44:00.000-07:002023-05-05T16:44:30.039-07:00Danielle Smith starts the 2023 election favored but the NDP is clearly competitive<p style="text-align: justify;">These days, I post a lot more on <a href="https://twitter.com/2closetocall" target="_blank">Twitter </a>than on my site, so follow me there for more updates. Still, it's good to have posts on the site with updates throughout the election. So here's a quick post as a starting point for the 2023 Alberta election.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">The polls have been better for the UCP over the last few months (after Kenney left and Danielle Smith took over) but it remains a dead heat for the popular vote. With that said, let's remember that polls have a strong tendency to underestimate the PC/UCP and overestimate the NDP in Alberta. In 2019, the polls were actually quite off, especially in <a href="https://twitter.com/2closetocall/status/1649141785686589440" target="_blank">the rest of Alberta</a>. I do a simple average of the polls (no fancy weights based on the so-called reliability of the polling firm of whether the sample is a little bit bigger; It's all a waste of time as I have systematically got a better polling average than sites who use such fancy techniques) but I don't allocate undecided proportionally. I have talked extensively about this, but long story short, polls tend to underestimate incumbents and large parties. So, right now, I'm giving 60% of undecided to the UCP and 40% to the NDP. I might change that during the campaign but it makes the most sense to me right now.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">As for the model, I use a simple uniform swing because it works great. I do make adjustments per region to account for within-province realignments. Right now, the provincial swing slightly underestimates the NDP in Calgary but overestimates it in Edmonton. You can always make your own adjustments in the <a href="https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/alberta-2023-simulator.html" target="_blank">simulator</a>. One 'fancy' technique I'm using is I used the 2019 to 2021 swing at the federal level and I identified 7 ridings where the LPC+NDP swing was much higher (and the CPC decreased more). They are Calgary Cross, East, Falconridge, Foothills, McCall, North and North-East. I assume that this means these ridings are turning more progressive and I therefore adjust the NDP more. Yes provincial and federal politics aren't the same but the ridings identified here makes sense.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Anyway, here are the projections with the map and the riding by riding projections. It's close in the sense that a typical poling error could result in a NDP victory, but the UCP is clearly favored. See it this way, for the NDP to win, it needs to basically win 19 in Calgary (versus only 3 in 2019...). It could win 17 or 18 and make 1-2 extra gains in the Edmonton donuts (or win Lesser Slave Lake in the rest of Alberta). It's a path but it's a narrow one with basically no mistake allowed. I personally think that unless the NDP starts polling clearly ahead in Calgary (and it isn't right now), the UCP will prevail. But the simple fact that the UNITED Conservatives have 'only' a 72% chance of winning is pretty crazy.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVctD-zePacO_Ov7heNVmtx_PSgVd-QcKb-U8U2VufiLSdT75B3FC63T0WsOVbnmzXSEBo7mnmO-Jo3uMFphQ4BhmL99pfMHRaiNO3dpy7v8rFKqACue5ZT0SoUPIbSH1KS5QvHz8xwn85I6TR5zJ6V7PS63uLrjsFMs--K-w5YxEqfVji5ZwSTtfT/s587/proj%20alberta%20may%203%202023.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="587" data-original-width="470" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVctD-zePacO_Ov7heNVmtx_PSgVd-QcKb-U8U2VufiLSdT75B3FC63T0WsOVbnmzXSEBo7mnmO-Jo3uMFphQ4BhmL99pfMHRaiNO3dpy7v8rFKqACue5ZT0SoUPIbSH1KS5QvHz8xwn85I6TR5zJ6V7PS63uLrjsFMs--K-w5YxEqfVji5ZwSTtfT/w320-h400/proj%20alberta%20may%203%202023.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYVHd5RL-fxy-fYuAnfC97cc-RiEzOHkfr-krhqoLKFvmsuHutspv1Xmo-BqADKsWBCvgEsX_HB7sayCAhyJ11JdIujCgr9qnv1KE0jOFrkZdrKuAt4ZKj8cXAr--I9EbrGhRFGyw4s4Vt6qSndwCbXDhzI7m2qoxNDQTU_m6MuYAiVpVivaZcge7b/s2678/proj%20alberta%20may%203%202023%20maps.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1598" data-original-width="2678" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYVHd5RL-fxy-fYuAnfC97cc-RiEzOHkfr-krhqoLKFvmsuHutspv1Xmo-BqADKsWBCvgEsX_HB7sayCAhyJ11JdIujCgr9qnv1KE0jOFrkZdrKuAt4ZKj8cXAr--I9EbrGhRFGyw4s4Vt6qSndwCbXDhzI7m2qoxNDQTU_m6MuYAiVpVivaZcge7b/w640-h382/proj%20alberta%20may%203%202023%20maps.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Interactive version here: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/bryan.breguet/viz/Albertaprojections2023/Sheet1</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Riding by riding can be found <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/643147851/Projections-Alberta-May-3rd-2023" target="_blank">here</a> or click on the picture below.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy5BoLPDJ5t6HKXyXKJzWULMlLNZnm93UMooeMnFpQ8PceeIF5KmiazhrGLJ8ONvdLbXMrWiSpUo6TWX-EJdNoojrc7MNuHtu3ai60sB6lPXovaZ_jftXC-_xBJACVUvQ9hyBiC_dDX7Qhhk-tNvrwKarLcKApSlAcPOofs6AB3nFUENbIbquHSUFp/s4329/proj%20alberta%20may%203%202023%20details.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4329" data-original-width="1895" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy5BoLPDJ5t6HKXyXKJzWULMlLNZnm93UMooeMnFpQ8PceeIF5KmiazhrGLJ8ONvdLbXMrWiSpUo6TWX-EJdNoojrc7MNuHtu3ai60sB6lPXovaZ_jftXC-_xBJACVUvQ9hyBiC_dDX7Qhhk-tNvrwKarLcKApSlAcPOofs6AB3nFUENbIbquHSUFp/w280-h640/proj%20alberta%20may%203%202023%20details.png" width="280" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-78610128481506584092022-10-02T22:10:00.005-07:002022-10-02T22:18:16.352-07:00Projections finales pour Québec 2022: super majorité pour Legault<p style="text-align: justify;">Il y a 4 ans, plusieurs doutaient que Legault puisse gagner sa majorité. Je me souviens avoir un de ceux qui étaient le plus confiant dans mes projections finales. J'vai eu raison même si j'avais moi-même sous-estimé la CAQ (en partie car les sondages avaient été très mauvais). Pas d'incertitude cette année. Cette élection n'aura au final quasi rien changé et Legault va aller gagner sa super majorité avec environ 40% des votes. La seule question est vraiment de savoir s'il aura 100 sièges ou moins.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Pour ceux qui n'ont pas le temps, voici les projections et la carte. Mon analyse suit.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiBEllLjJ8sex6CoFJKh-vIXsKyF034utdL49006K9pg6BQMuMRmBk0gOhlHDE5cbZsNmuiLlBIu918auWZ2g9T6R_ZGxFa7GYaOAVofYQAadcfmZUw2E24L1-AXccMaFq0Xdhj1nHqcx11EMHZJzsghs-KFcII2S9w0tcoQDOaOUQ215-b4d80cm-/s1158/Projections%20finales%20Qc%202022.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="573" data-original-width="1158" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiBEllLjJ8sex6CoFJKh-vIXsKyF034utdL49006K9pg6BQMuMRmBk0gOhlHDE5cbZsNmuiLlBIu918auWZ2g9T6R_ZGxFa7GYaOAVofYQAadcfmZUw2E24L1-AXccMaFq0Xdhj1nHqcx11EMHZJzsghs-KFcII2S9w0tcoQDOaOUQ215-b4d80cm-/w640-h316/Projections%20finales%20Qc%202022.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: justify;">La carte</p><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1664772700709" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Sheet 1 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Qu/Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Qu/Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-US" /><param name="filter" value="publish=yes" /></object></div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1664772700709'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Et les <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/598147424/Projections-Finales-Quebec-2022" target="_blank">projections comté par comté</a>.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>Prime à l'urne?</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">On connait bien ce terme qui, d'habitude, permettait au PLQ de faire mieux que prévu. Ce ne fût pas le cas en 2018 (c'est tout le contraire) et ce ne sera probablement pas le cas demain. Dans les faits, le PLQ a un risque réel de scénario catastrophe où son vote (surtout anglo) ne sort pas et se retrouve à 10-13 sièges. On pourrait même imaginer un scénario où QS finit opposition officielle. Si vous regardez le dernier sondage Mainstreet (page 23), vous voyez que les électeurs Libéraux sont les moins sûrs d'aller voter. Aussi, le PLQ avait en général une prime à l'urne grâce au vote des 65 et plus qui avaient peur d'un référendum. La menace n'est plus là et c'est la CAQ qui domine outrageusement dans cette catégorie d'âge. Finalement, si on regarde les sondages par comtés et on les aggrège pour faire des projections (une méthode qui avait mieux marché en 2018), on obtient le PLQ vers les 12-13%!</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Tout cela pour dire que demain soir, si mes projections devaient être dans l'erreur, je soupçonne que ce serait en raison d'un effondrement du PLQ dû à une faible participation. Et si prime à l'urne il y a, je parie sur la CAQ au-dessus de 40%. Les sondages de fin de campagne s'entendaient plutôt bien pour placer la CAQ vers les 38-41%, mais il y en a eu <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Quebec_general_election#Opinion_polls" target="_blank">d'autres, plus anciens</a> (Angus-Reid, Ekos), qui avaient ce parti significativement plus bas. Et le Forum de dernière minute n'avait ce parti qu'à 36.8%. Il n'y a ainsi pas un consensus total (à l'inverse de l'élection en Ontario plus tôt cette année).</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Si le scénario catastrophe devait se produire, le PLQ ne conserverait que ses châteaux forts dans l'ouest de l'île et parfois avec de petites majorités. Mais les comtés comme SHSA, Hull ou encore Bourassa-Sauvé changeraient de couleur.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>Le PQ</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Le PQ est le seul parti qui termine cette élection plus élevé qu'au début. Le problème c'est que le PQ reste très bas et son vote est encore plus inefficace. En 2018, il pouvait au moins compter sur de grands noms pour gagner des comtés (Jonquière, Joliette, etc). Pas cette année. Bérubé est garanti de gagner mais après, cela pourrait être le naufrage. D'autant plus que les sondages ont montré un vote PQ qui montait dans la région de Québec. C'est pour les pourcentages de votes mais c'est complètement inutile en sièges.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Si PSPP gagne dans Camille-Laurin/Bourget, cela sera grâce à sa bonne campagne (tout le monde s'entend là-dessus) mais aussi grâce à la candidate QS qui a été idiote et a volé ce pamphlet électoral. Sans cet évènement, j'aurais le PQ à un siège.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">J'ai le PQ gagnant dans Marie-Victorin, c'est un peu étrange je l'avoue mais j'ai utilisé ma méthode habituelle pour tenir compte des partielles et c'est ça que j'obtiens. Aussi le candidat Péquiste est un ancien député fédéral, donc il peut aider.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>Le PCQ et le mode de scrutin</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Le PCQ est peut-être né de la crise sanitaire, mais force est d'admettre que ce parti semble plus solide que prévu. Son problème principal est que son vote n'est en fait pas assez concentré! Il gaspille trop de votes un peu partout au lieu de tout concentrer dans la région de Québec. Les sondages ont quasiment tous montré la CAQ confortablement devant dans cette région. Il y a eu un seul sondage par comté qui a montré le PCQ en tête dans Beauce-Nord. Dans Chauveau, deux firmes différentes ont montré la même chose: Duhaime tirant de l'arrière.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Y a-t-il un espoir pour le PCQ? Oui. La participation par anticipation semble indiquer une forte hausse dans Beauce-Nord, Bellechasse et Chauveau. Cela est de bon augure pour Duhaime et ses candidats.Il y a le Forum, publié tard hier soir, qui montrait le PCQ devant dans la région de Québec. Le sondage Ekos avait aussi une course bien plus compétitive. Donc il se peut que ce parti soit sous-estimé. Au final cependant, je me dois de suivre les données et celles-ci montrent un PCQ qui pourrait fort bien terminer avec zéro! Cela étant dit, si les sondages avaient tort, le PCQ pourrait 'facilement' remporter 3-6 comtés. Je parle ici d'une sous-estimation dans la Beauce et la région de Québec.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Inclure un nouveau parti dans un modèle de projections est toujours difficile. Pour le PCQ, j'ai regardé l'ADQ en 2008, la CAQ en 2012 et le PCC en 2021. J'ai regardé les résultats dans certains comtés (vers Québec, la Beauce etc) et calculé des bonus. Par exemple, dans Beauce-Nord, j'ai que ADQ/CAQ/PCC performaient en moyenne 2.7x mieux que le résultat à l'échelle de la province. Cela signifie clairement que je fais l'hypothèse que ces partis sont une bonne comparaison pour le PCQ. Ce n'est pas parfait mais je trouvais cela logique. Et les projections sont ensuite ajustées en fonction des données régionales des sondages et des sondages par comté. Il reste que je m'attends à être moins précis pour le PCQ que pour d'autres partis.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Nous verrons bien si le PCQ fait son entrée à L'Assemblée. Il serait quand même triste qu'un parti qui pourrait terminer 2e en voix se retoruve avec zéro siège! Legault a fait un Trudeau (en fait pire) de lui-même en annulant la réforme du mode de scrutin. Il ne sera pas puni demain soir mais la démocratie Québécoise pourrait en prendre un coup.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>Québec Soldiaire</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Cette campagne ne semble pas avoir aussi bien fonctionné pour cette formation qu'en 2018. De manière amusante aussi, Legault avait clairement décidé de faire de ce parti son adversaire préféré! Combien même il n'y a pas tant de courses CAQ-QS. Non seulement les sondages sont moins bons, mais la tendance n'y est pas. De plus, si on regarde sur Google Trends, on voit une grosse baisse par rapport à 2018. Alors que <a href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore/TIMESERIES/1664773800?hl=en-US&tz=420&date=2018-09-01+2018-09-30&geo=CA-QC&q=%2Fm%2F0gw445,%2Fm%2F01xlkjt,%2Fm%2F0jt8x6n,%2Fm%2F07yj2x,Adrien+Pouliot&sni=3 " target="_blank">Manon Massé dominait cet indicateur</a> il y a 4 ans, <a href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore/TIMESERIES/1664773800?hl=en-US&tz=420&date=today+1-m&geo=CA-QC&q=%2Fm%2F0gw445,%2Fg%2F121vfbz7,%2Fm%2F0wztnmr,%2Fg%2F119x74dtp,%2Fm%2F0j45y5z&sni=3" target="_blank">Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois semble avoir plus de misère</a>. C'est la même chose si vous regardez les partis (QS fait mieux dans ce cas mais la domination de QS reste moindre qu'il y a 4 ans).</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Il se peut que les gens connaissent davantage QS mais mon experience avec Google Trends est que si tu es connu, tu continues de générer de l'intérêt. Si ce n'était pas le cas, Trudeau ne serait pas premier sur Google trends!</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Si la firme Mainstreet a raison, QS va connaitre une très mauvaise soirée et pourrait chuter à 6-7 sièges et ne récolter que 12%. Je n'ai pas cela en moyenne et je crois que QS va conserver ses sièges sauf Rouyn et possiblement Jean-Lesage. QS devrait aussi gagner Maurice-Richard et Verdun. De manière générale cependant, Québec Solidaire va p-e vivre sa première élection sans réelle progression et je me demande s'ils vont devoir réfléchir à leur avenir. Cela étant dit, on ne peut pas exclure un scénario ou GND se retoruve chef de l'opposition officielle et serait clairement l'alternative pour 2026.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p></p>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-87232468989760862212022-09-28T13:59:00.000-07:002022-09-28T13:59:02.066-07:0028 septembre: Un autre sondage avec la CAQ basse mais toujours majoritaire<div style="text-align: justify;">Le premier sondage Angus Reid est paru ce matin et il a la CAQ à seulement 34%. On voit vraiment une petite baisse du parti de François Legault, y compris chez Mainstreet. Mais sa domination dans le 450 et en régions, y compris l'Est du Québec ou nous avons maintenant plusieurs sondages (Léger, Synopsis) montrant la CAQ qui domine le PQ, fait en sorte que sa majorité est non seulement assurée mais confortable.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Au final nous n'avons de loin pas un consensus entre sondeurs. Certains ont la CAQ bien plus élevée (y compris les sondages par comté), QS varie de 12 à 21%, le PCQ aussi. Les sondages nationaux montrent le PLQ en chute chez les anglo mais les sondages par comté montrent ce parti solide dans ses sièges. Situation bizarre vraiment.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK-IZHzY6gIO5BoPnLAdrkoWafSJ3YYl_o_CgZXRO6FYsqYpa5NWz36uuLj8OSVjDztDr12wHFHvrm7WOnZjLgiVoKjwCignBZ_Tr9bOouA1COBIC1xVgnfi7yz6fL94FibjZHGjO3Yli11ioFIKwX-i9ZrI1ERy3-qtaMILu2nQAalpRQRjbre6Nf/s1158/Proj%20Qc%20sept%2028.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="580" data-original-width="1158" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK-IZHzY6gIO5BoPnLAdrkoWafSJ3YYl_o_CgZXRO6FYsqYpa5NWz36uuLj8OSVjDztDr12wHFHvrm7WOnZjLgiVoKjwCignBZ_Tr9bOouA1COBIC1xVgnfi7yz6fL94FibjZHGjO3Yli11ioFIKwX-i9ZrI1ERy3-qtaMILu2nQAalpRQRjbre6Nf/w640-h320/Proj%20Qc%20sept%2028.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">La carte</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1664398610801" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Sheet 1 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Qu/Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Qu/Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-US" /><param name="filter" value="publish=yes" /></object></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1664398610801" style="position: relative;"><br /></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1664398610801" style="position: relative;">Les <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/597331289/Proj-Qc-Sept-28-2022" target="_blank">projections par comté avec les probabilités</a>.</div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1664398610801'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-78032406632523314922022-09-27T14:27:00.001-07:002022-09-28T00:19:45.340-07:00Les sondages ne s'entendent pas, le PQ remonte en moyenne<p style="text-align: justify;">Aujourd'hui nous avons eu l'habituel nouveau <a href="https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/Quebec_2022_PDFs/2022-09-26_QC_Daily_Tracker.pdf" target="_blank">Mainstreet</a>, mais aussi un nouveau <a href="https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/20220927-Rapport-Intentions-de-vote-post-debat-Radio-Canada-Election-Quebec-2022.pdf" target="_blank">Léger </a>et un nouveau <a href="https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2022/09/quebec-election-2022-caq-in-cruise-control-for-second-mandate/" target="_blank">Ekos</a>. Ces sondages s'entendent pour avoir la CAQ devant mais c'est à peu près tout. Mainstreet continue d'avoir QS et le PQ vers les 10% alors qu'Ekos a QS à 21%! Léger est entre les deux à 17%. Il y a d'autres différences mais QS et PQ semblent vraiment être les deux partis qui fluctuent le plus entre maisons de sondages.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Ajoutez à ces sondages discordants les sondages par comtés qui montrent une situation parfois très surprenante (le PLQ qui gagne encore facilement dans Marquette par exemple, la CAQ en hausse de 10 points dans tout le Québec francophone, ce qui n'est pas en ligne avec la CAQ vers les 40% à l'échelle de la province) et on se retrouve avec une situation où on n'a pas une idée très claire de la situation.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Ces projections font la moyenne des sondages mais, soyons honnête ici, il se peut fort bien qu'une firme ait raison alors qu'une autre aura très tort. Faire la moyenne n'aide peut-être pas dans ce cas. Mais vu que je n'ai pas envie d'essayer de deviner qui dit vrai, je fais la moyenne. J'espère que les sondages convergeront un peu d'ici la fin de campagne!</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3B0Dld6qYtpH0mDAedb5KXo6Ak0XvrrgVb2QotqenPt4mp6q0Qv-hKtT5RpgzdfAhmzF_omlDtA3vMRQ1eoaMvOkWpO6OzMEqhFktvdK0SfUnE22x2VH3JbIfRTEGaKomEADo86G3Cf9WvMstaAU7sNVuOd72ZZg9jcK-fO5X-8teoZ56tLPfEImE/s1152/Proj%20Quebec%20sept%2027.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="578" data-original-width="1152" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3B0Dld6qYtpH0mDAedb5KXo6Ak0XvrrgVb2QotqenPt4mp6q0Qv-hKtT5RpgzdfAhmzF_omlDtA3vMRQ1eoaMvOkWpO6OzMEqhFktvdK0SfUnE22x2VH3JbIfRTEGaKomEADo86G3Cf9WvMstaAU7sNVuOd72ZZg9jcK-fO5X-8teoZ56tLPfEImE/w640-h322/Proj%20Quebec%20sept%2027.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: justify;">Remarquez l'intervalle de la CAQ. Son plus bas pourrait maintenant être 75 sièges. C'est toujours une majorité comfortable mais on est loin du 100 sièges. D'un autre côté, si les sondages par comté ont raison, 100 sièges restent possibles.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">La carte</p><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1664313890060" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Sheet 1 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Qu/Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Qu/Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-US" /><param name="filter" value="publish=yes" /></object></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1664313890060" style="position: relative;"><br /></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1664313890060" style="position: relative;"><br /></div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1664313890060'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-79343241710722603382022-09-22T18:24:00.001-07:002022-09-22T18:59:56.403-07:00Qui a gagné le débat des chefs?<p> Vous savez comment ça marche, deux questions. Merci!</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>
<script>(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','//scripts.poll-maker.com/3012/pollembed.js','qp');</script><a href='https://www.poll-maker.com' data-poll='4485612xFAd54f40-140' style='width:100%; display:block; text-align:right;'>Poll Maker</a>
<script>(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','//scripts.poll-maker.com/3012/pollembed.js','qp');</script><a href='https://www.poll-maker.com' data-poll='4485614x2f4683e3-140' style='width:100%; display:block; text-align:right;'>Polls</a>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-11736144091025344992022-09-20T12:38:00.002-07:002022-09-20T12:38:59.304-07:00PSPP gagne le débat et relance le PQ<div style="text-align: justify;">Nous avons maintenant plusieurs indications (dont ce <a href="https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2022/09/19/qui-sont-les-gagnants-du-face-a-face-selon-les-electeurs" target="_blank">sondage Léger</a>) que Paul St-Pierre Plamondon a bien fait lors du Face-à-Face à TVA et qu'il a relancé son parti. Je ne parle pas ici de placer le PQ pour prendre le pouvoir mais la formation souverainiste se retrouve au moins au-dessus des 10%. Rendue à 12-13%, et avec la CAQ en légère baisse, le PQ devient compétitif dans 5-10 comtés, dont celui de son chef.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">L'autre tendance que l'on observe est une chute du PLQ. Anglade est perçue partout comme ayant été la plus mauvaise lors du débat. On voit aussi une chute dramatique chez les non-franco (le PLQ n'y est qu'à 43% dans le Léger de ce matin!). Aussi, les sondages par comtés, surtout ceux faits par Segma, montrent tous un scénario cauchemard pour les Libéraux. Je parle ici de récolter à peine 10% des intentions de vote à l'échelle de la province. Si cela devait arriver, le PLQ serait vulnérable même dans l'Ouest de l'île et Québec Solidaire pourrait se retrouver comme opposition officielle.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">En passant, ces sondages par comté ne s'alignent pas du tout avec les autres sondages. Ils montrent la CAQ en hausse de 12 points par exemple! On verra qui aura raison le 3 octobre, mais mes projections partent du principe que les sondages provinciaux sont plus précis. Donc gardez cela en tête.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Les projections ne bougent pas encore beaucoup mais les intervalles ont changé. On arrive à une situation où quelques points de pourcentage pourraient faire une grosse différence. Le débat des chefs sera crucial!</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzK3PNEgl5sdeEJwUyC5pvL3d5XXVMdEBy8W92lPUUu0uUDjbG-Gb71rmM0iotu6-08_tgM-wXLquB3E9PA8hwIt9uuFkwNq8YDULqEhCS1VckJJvo1a2moYh-71zBl-Qu6eAr_kLGXtbM_g1lrAvNZDSWpj24_Go6c_vOuTiCl3f6-muoL9m6nz16/s1152/Proj%20Qc%20Sept%2020.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="585" data-original-width="1152" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzK3PNEgl5sdeEJwUyC5pvL3d5XXVMdEBy8W92lPUUu0uUDjbG-Gb71rmM0iotu6-08_tgM-wXLquB3E9PA8hwIt9uuFkwNq8YDULqEhCS1VckJJvo1a2moYh-71zBl-Qu6eAr_kLGXtbM_g1lrAvNZDSWpj24_Go6c_vOuTiCl3f6-muoL9m6nz16/w640-h326/Proj%20Qc%20Sept%2020.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: justify;">Il y a maintenant aussi une petite chance que QS termine devant le PLQ. On parle de 8 simulations sur 10,000, mais cela reste possible. Et à voir la tendance, je me demande si cela ne deviendra pas la vraie course de cette élection.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">La CAQ reste dominante et pas à risque de perdre sa majorité. Sa domination dans le 450 et dans les régions lui assure 63 sièges. Cependant, la taille de cette majorité pourrait être moins élevée que prévue. Il faudrait toutefois que le PCQ se rapproche dans la région de Québec et en Bauce. À date, les sondages ne montrent pas cela. J'aimerais beaucoup avoir quelques sondages dans Chauveau, Beauce, Chaudières, etc. Au lieu de sonder Chicoutimi!</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Voici la carte:</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1663702651357" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Sheet 1 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Qu/Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Qu/Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-US" /><param name="filter" value="publish=yes" /></object></div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1663702651357'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><a href="https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/bryan.breguet/viz/Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1?publish=yes" target="_blank">Lien direct</a>.</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">Finalement <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/595740455/Proj-Qc-Sept-20-2022" target="_blank">les projections par comté </a>avec les probabilités.</div>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-62364797965974399982022-09-15T19:09:00.001-07:002022-09-15T19:12:10.873-07:00Sondage: qui a gagné le Face-à-Face sur TVA?<p> Petits sondages pas scientifiques. Deux questions.</p><p><br /></p>
<script>(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','//scripts.poll-maker.com/3012/pollembed.js','qp');</script><a href='https://www.poll-maker.com' data-poll='4474197x16B04A00-140' style='width:100%; display:block; text-align:right;'>Polls</a>
<script>(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','//scripts.poll-maker.com/3012/pollembed.js','qp');</script><a href='https://www.poll-maker.com/Tutorials-Updates' data-poll='4474198xD3394AaE-140' style='width:100%; display:block; text-align:right;'>Poll Maker</a>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-39764488426866742022-09-15T11:14:00.003-07:002022-09-15T11:21:05.220-07:00Mise à jour des projections avant les Face-à-Face ce soir<p style="text-align: justify;">Nous avons le premier vrai débat ce soir à TVA et, ce matin, nous avons enfin eu un nouveau eu un nouveau <a href="https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/20220915-Rapport-intentions-de-vote.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0yS3Cj10Uo_iyyyOffhHCxpiJKOCCbV6w0z4K4Q85o2XO-zsr1MQ8GRKY" target="_blank">sondage Léger</a>. Cela fait du bien d'avoir une autre source d'info que Mainstreet. Aussi, les chiffres de ce matin ont confirmé que la firm Mainstreet a un "house effect" contre Québec Solidaire. Mainstreet fait ses sondages par téléphone et je suspecte que ses échantillons pour les 18-34 ans sont un peu bizarres (qui répond au téléphone dans cette tranche d'age?). Pour un parti comme QS dont le vote est très concentré auprès de ce groupe démographique, cela peut potentiellement causer des problèmes. Oui Mainstreet compense avec la pondération mais si les 18-34 ans qui acceptent de répondre sont fondamentalement différents des autres 18-34 ans, les réponses seront biaisées.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Je ne dis pas que Mainstreet a tort quand ils ont QS à 10% au lieu de 17% comme Léger, je dis juste que Mainstreet a QS plus bas que toutes les autres firmes (on a eu un sondage Segma à Québec qui était plutôt en ligne avec Léger. Aussi les deux sondages par comté d'Ekos étaient compatibles avec les chiffres de Léger, pas Mainstreet).</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Quoiqu'il en soit, voici les projections.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGALAxV1aEH3FTREnAEmEOMU2rK_KGJJPvriO-RiL2PpIpOlSWX__thP7nlNll20qg6LJPF__CKuL4t5nOvEdLL1fe9PMGm6lph6WmCf29CW4GRenci8gnJlcDrtR-aGkgDXqM8MJn8HZVmZEtni5XTaJkh98p7kJGrNmVew99CS70Zw1_qt4_q-fv/s1152/Proj%20Qc%20Sept%2015.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="581" data-original-width="1152" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGALAxV1aEH3FTREnAEmEOMU2rK_KGJJPvriO-RiL2PpIpOlSWX__thP7nlNll20qg6LJPF__CKuL4t5nOvEdLL1fe9PMGm6lph6WmCf29CW4GRenci8gnJlcDrtR-aGkgDXqM8MJn8HZVmZEtni5XTaJkh98p7kJGrNmVew99CS70Zw1_qt4_q-fv/w640-h322/Proj%20Qc%20Sept%2015.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: justify;">On voit que la CAQ domine complètement mais si on regarde les intervales, on voit que la CAQ est pas mal au maximum déjà. Pas beaucoup de potential en termes de gains mais une légère baisse dans les sondages (ou une surestimation) pourrait causer plusieurs pertes (elle resterait majoritaire bien sûr).</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">La carte</p><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1663265474465" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Sheet 1 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Qu/Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Qu/Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-US" /><param name="filter" value="publish=yes" /></object></div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1663265474465'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a href="https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/bryan.breguet/viz/Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1?publish=yes" target="_blank">Carte au complete</a>.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Les projections <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/594793777/Proj-Qc-Sept-15-2022" target="_blank">détaillées</a>.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-40218179935005751102022-09-09T23:33:00.000-07:002022-09-09T23:33:10.088-07:00Final projections for the 2022 CPC leadership race: Poilievre easily on the first round<p style="text-align: justify;">I thought that my <a href="https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2022/08/almost-final-projections-for-2022-cpc.html">quasi final projections</a> would actually double as my actual final ones but Elections Canada released some more complete fundraising data yesterday. The number of extra donors is quite significant (Poilievre, for instance, goes from 37,729 single donors to 50,441, mostly thanks to new data going into July). Lewis also increased quite a lot thanks to the July numbers. I have also updated the Google Trends numbers.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">I have therefore re-run all my stuff and here it is. You have the projections with the range, the results by provinces as well as the riding-level map. Keep in mind that the map is likely a lot less accurate than the overall numbers. The projections are based on the fundraising (mostly the number of donors but also the amounts), numbers from Google Trends as well as the one Mainstreet poll (which polled the existing members of the party). I also want to the most recent Ipsos poll (of voters, not members) showing Poilievre increasing his lead over Charest.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMU9A376j3FYgJZRlwoD-SbJdyevchnPmk-_X-QdY2dwgNvhNK7AWLDSJzbU4tR_Z3qOrL3H-l_l2JowSkUUPeOegMQg8FhRAMAC0giT_4B3wd9IHQpC5ityj36Dv-6VoZpmr_Gg6mqMcQI68W2YmSK-b7MttYoaDcNxm1k1qR93jllzhznlU0wEwv/s1502/CPC%20projections%202022%20final%20Sept%209.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1502" data-original-width="773" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMU9A376j3FYgJZRlwoD-SbJdyevchnPmk-_X-QdY2dwgNvhNK7AWLDSJzbU4tR_Z3qOrL3H-l_l2JowSkUUPeOegMQg8FhRAMAC0giT_4B3wd9IHQpC5ityj36Dv-6VoZpmr_Gg6mqMcQI68W2YmSK-b7MttYoaDcNxm1k1qR93jllzhznlU0wEwv/w330-h640/CPC%20projections%202022%20final%20Sept%209.png" width="330" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: justify;">I have Poilievre winning a majority of points over 99% of the time. He wins 100% of the time as he has way more down ballot support than Charest.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Quite a high chance that Lewis gets more votes but fewer points than Charest. She has a 10% chance of getting more points. It'll be difficult for her as Charest's vote is very likely more efficient thanks to Quebec.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Charest has a 13% chance of winning Quebec. Yes this is low.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Results by provinces (those are percentages of points).</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfs9z4wpPd0hWtPgsCmtkBGG96PTDs-UI5BPy0IpDvBdavil8zvhCzRWL3iV2iQ9DeTb2s9Sh4fY5expvQOj7FHfWSlaXZ9yqdDrx9EuGQXdLl8Az24Jxdr9M16PypOOJyLqkXGLdXrfLFQCn7BfGnPZ7sAbhFZRtLkJsobyNvw1zOzhFTuOEWMlEb/s1225/CPC%20projections%202022%20final%20Sept%209%20by%20province.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="467" data-original-width="1225" height="244" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgfs9z4wpPd0hWtPgsCmtkBGG96PTDs-UI5BPy0IpDvBdavil8zvhCzRWL3iV2iQ9DeTb2s9Sh4fY5expvQOj7FHfWSlaXZ9yqdDrx9EuGQXdLl8Az24Jxdr9M16PypOOJyLqkXGLdXrfLFQCn7BfGnPZ7sAbhFZRtLkJsobyNvw1zOzhFTuOEWMlEb/w640-h244/CPC%20projections%202022%20final%20Sept%209%20by%20province.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: justify;">Finally the map. Poilievre wins 322 ridings, Charest 13 (11 in Quebec), Baber 1 (his own), Aitchison 1 (his own) and Lewis 1 (Nunavut but she could win her riding as well). Poilievre wins every province and region by more than 50%. This is really impressive. And those numbers could be higher if I didn't include the Mainstreet poll in my averages (using only the fundraising, I get Poilievre closer to 66% overall).</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p>
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1662791397851" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Sheet 1 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/CP/CPCleadership2022projectionsfullfinal/Sheet1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="CPCleadership2022projectionsfullfinal/Sheet1" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/CP/CPCleadership2022projectionsfullfinal/Sheet1/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-US" /><param name="filter" value="publish=yes" /></object></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1662791397851" style="position: relative;"><br /></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1662791397851" style="position: relative;"><a href="https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/bryan.breguet/viz/CPCleadership2022projectionsfullfinal/Sheet1?publish=yes" target="_blank">Page of the map</a>.</div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1662791397851'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-24341274385793320782022-09-07T12:13:00.005-07:002022-09-07T12:13:37.646-07:007 septembre 2022: Le PQ grimpe et peut espérer jusquà 8 sièges<p style="text-align: justify;">Petite mise à jour rapide avec le <a href="https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/Quebec_2022_PDFs/2022-09-06_QC_Daily_Tracker.pdf" target="_blank">Mainstreet de ce matin</a>. Le PQ continue de grimper et se retrouve devant QS dans ce sondage (mais ma moyenne continue d'inclure le Léger, même si ce dernier commence à se faire vieux). Le PCQ baisse et se retrouve 18 points derrière la CAQ dans la RMR de Québec.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Il y a aussi quelques signes (le sondage Ekos dans Verdun, les sondages Mainstreet) que le vote Libéral n'est pas aussi efficace que l'on ne pourrait le penser. Le PLQ semble faible sur l'île et faire mieux que prévu en banlieues. Le problème c'est qu'à part à Laval et dans 1 ou 2 autres comtés, c'est un vote inutile.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Voici les projections et la carte.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj9HG5EfPai6NxgpZWJI-s6jgWGJTSgtZok2mcXsV0oZWGeF_zGGNV6yTj8F8cdy3hr0fdsZQzxhY6dYpbye-yhRM8t6hl8L-Y44Up1OMcClipH0mmovEmtm8ptdygdOAbXTQHByvbfpNw_taNDYvsy-1XCdbcLHoU7XmyhpdKB_lrqfyAzRu9P2Rv/s1152/Proj%20Qc%20Sept%207.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="585" data-original-width="1152" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj9HG5EfPai6NxgpZWJI-s6jgWGJTSgtZok2mcXsV0oZWGeF_zGGNV6yTj8F8cdy3hr0fdsZQzxhY6dYpbye-yhRM8t6hl8L-Y44Up1OMcClipH0mmovEmtm8ptdygdOAbXTQHByvbfpNw_taNDYvsy-1XCdbcLHoU7XmyhpdKB_lrqfyAzRu9P2Rv/w640-h326/Proj%20Qc%20Sept%207.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><p style="text-align: justify;">La CAQ montre quelques signes de faiblesses. Elle est encore dans la fourchette haute de son intervale mais le plancher théorique baisse (en partie car le PQ grimpe).</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p>
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1662577876367" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Sheet 1 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Qu/Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Qu/Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-US" /><param name="filter" value="publish=yes" /></object></div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1662577876367'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a href="https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/projections-par-circonscriptions.html" target="_blank">Projections détaillées ici</a>.</p>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-35779436244069818662022-09-04T19:02:00.004-07:002022-09-04T21:49:04.012-07:00Qui a fait le mieux lors de "5 chef, une élection"?<p> Répondez au sondage ci-dessous.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>
<script>(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','//scripts.poll-maker.com/3012/pollembed.js','qp');</script><a data-poll="4455222x72FC44e4-139" href="https://www.quiz-maker.com/poll4455222x72FC44e4-139" style="display: block; text-align: right; width: 100%;">QuizMaker</a><div><br /></div>
Si vous voulez juste voir les résultats, <a href="https://take.quiz-maker.com/results4455222x72FC44e4-139#tab-2" target="_blank">cliquez ici</a>.Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-69247670067627300892022-09-02T23:45:00.005-07:002022-09-02T23:57:33.518-07:002 septembre: le PCQ commence à être compétitif dans 6-8 comtés<p style="text-align: justify;">Mise à jour importante ce matin car j'ajoute non seulement le <a href="https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/Quebec_2022_PDFs/2022-09-01_QC_Daily_Tracker.pdf" target="_blank">sondage Mainstreet d'hier</a> (un sondage qui plaçait le Parti Conservateur à près de 30% dans la grande région de Québec) mais j'ai aussi fait des modifications importantes.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Pour les impatients, voici les plus récentes projections ainsi que la carte.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfk9t4-rQGwN-7528CIKwKhxIIDyg-GOBBWTMNbNJw0Q5Bi73PeSN_3it1FcZhuyg629EithGeeYgC2UnsIGq54-rqj5RMCRS1543vu-9eWUvSlRbmLUxdng_ODR0VJvecMk321pGf5qQnf7SCTM0EdVXXsHm4lYsjIWMWCwnoDM7je34Kay9KR2P3/s1161/Projections%20QC%202%20sept.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="587" data-original-width="1161" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfk9t4-rQGwN-7528CIKwKhxIIDyg-GOBBWTMNbNJw0Q5Bi73PeSN_3it1FcZhuyg629EithGeeYgC2UnsIGq54-rqj5RMCRS1543vu-9eWUvSlRbmLUxdng_ODR0VJvecMk321pGf5qQnf7SCTM0EdVXXsHm4lYsjIWMWCwnoDM7je34Kay9KR2P3/w640-h324/Projections%20QC%202%20sept.png" width="640" /></a></div>Toujours aucun suspense tant la CAQ est dominante mais il y a possiblement davantage de courses intéressantes en raison de la progression du PCQ.<div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>La carte continue d'être pleine de bleu turquoise.</div><div><br /></div>
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1662187590904" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Sheet 1 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Qu/Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Qu/Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-US" /><param name="filter" value="publish=yes" /></object></div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1662187590904'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script>
<div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>La carte est <a href="https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/carte-des-projections-pour-le-quebec.html" target="_blank">toujours dispo ici.</a></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>Okay, parlons des modifications que j'ai faites. Le modèle est, somme toute, assez simple. Je prends les résultats de la dernière élection dans chaque comté, j'ajoute le 'swing' provincial et voilà. Je fais ensuite des ajustements avec les chiffres par régions (et comtés si nous avons des sondages) ainsi que si un parti connaît une grande croissance ou décroissance entre les deux élections (une 'vague'). Cela fonctionne bien sauf si certains évènements se produisent. Parmi ceux-ci, la création d'un nouveau parti peut poser des problèmes. Nous avons cette année l'arrivée d'un Parti Conservateur très différent de celui qui existait techniquement il y a 4 ans. Utiliser les résultats de 2018 ne nous donne pas vraiment une bonne idée de la répartition géographique du vote PCQ.<p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Jusqu'à maintenant, j'espérais que les sondages nous donneraient des chiffres par sous-régions détaillées, voire même par comté. Mais ce n'est pas le cas. Tant Léger que Mainstreet nous donnent le RMR de Montréal, le RMR de Québec et le reste de la province. Cela n'est pas suffisant pour avoir une bonne approximation du PCQ. J'ai ainsi décidé de faire des ajustements. Il est évident que le PCQ partage beaucoup avec la défunte ADQ, ainsi que le Parti Conservateur fédéral. J'ai donc regardé les résultats en 2008, 2012 (CAQ fusionnée avec ADQ) et 2021 (fédéral mais transposé sur la carte provincial). Pour un comté comme Chauveau, l'ADQ/CAQ/PCC récolte en moyenne plus du double de son score à l'échelle de la province (stable sur ces trois élections). J'ai fait ces calculs dans tous les comtés de la grande région de Québec ainsi que de la Beauce, etc et j'ajoute ainsic es ajustements au modèle.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">En gros, mon modèle assume que le PCQ est un parti avec une distribution géographique très similaire à l'ADQ et au PCC. C'est une hypothèse et j'ai peut-être tort. Mais c'est mieux que rien selon moi. Aussi, j'ajuste toujours en fonction des sondages pour m'assurer que tous les partis sont proches de la moyenne des sondages dans chaque région. En d'autres mots, mes hypothèses ici ne sont pas absolues et ne vont pas à l'encontre des données des sondages.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Tout ça pour dire que le nouveau modèle a le PCQ avec un vote plus efficace. Le parti d'Éric Duhaime est en fait compétitif (chances au-dessus de 2%) dans 6-8 comtés. Cela ne prendrait pas un grand 'swing' entre la CAQ vers le PCQ pour que ce dernier se retrouve avec plus de 5 députés. Un résultat qui ferait très probablement en sorte que le paysage politique au Québec soit maintenant entre la CAQ, QS et le PCQ, 3 partis qui n'existaient pas il y a 20 ans. Un remplacement total du PLQ et PQ.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">La CAQ est largement en tête mais sa coalition d'électeurs a changé en 4 ans (et encore plus en 8 ans). Regardez les 2e choix dans les sondages, les électeurs CAQuistes ont surtout le PQ et QS! On est loin du petit parti de droite comme l'ADQ. Il semblerait que le PCQ ait remplacé la CAQ à droite. Et la droite au Québec, on a une assez bonne idée d'où elle est. Regardez les projections détaillées ci-dessous pour voir dans quels comtés le PCQ est compétitif.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Le sondage Mainstreet avait le PCQ plus élevé que Léger et que ma moyenne, nous verrons s'il s'agit d'une rvaie tendance ou juste des variations typiques des sondages de cette firme. Si le PCQ devait grimper au-dessus des 20% et la CAQ baisser vers les 35%, on aurait alors entre 6 et 10 sièges en jeu entre ces deux partis.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Vous pouvez utiliser le <a href="https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/simulateur-quebec-2022.html" target="_blank">nouveau simulateur ici</a>.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a href="https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/projections-par-circonscriptions.html" target="_blank">Projections par comté ici</a>.</p></div>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-27982596458604363882022-08-29T14:08:00.002-07:002022-08-29T14:08:39.354-07:00Nouveau sondage Mainstreet montre le PCQ à 21%, la CAQ reste très loin devant<p style="text-align: justify;">Après le Léger de samedi, voici le <a href="https://www.leantossup.ca/Quebec_2022_PDFs/2022-08-28_QC_Daily_Tracker.pdf" target="_blank">premier Mainstreet</a>. Cette firme devrait publier un sondage quotidien, fait par téléphone (Léger est en ligne).</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Mainstreet est une firme qui a souvent les partis de droite (PCC au fédéral par exemple) plus élevés. Elle a aussi les jeunes qui sont davantage à droite de manière quasi systématique. C'est vraiment une conséquence de leur méthodologie. En général leurs sondages ne sont pas mauvais mais gardons cela en tête. Léger avait le PCQ à seulement 14% par exemple.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Si j'ajoute ce sondage à ma moyenne, cela ne change pas grand chose. La CAQ est tellement dominante quasiment partout que changer quelques points de pourcentage n'a pas une grande influence. Regardez par exemple les intervales de confiance à 95%, la CAQ est entre 84 et 97. Ce n'est pas particulièrement large pour un parti en tête. Cela nous montre simplement que la CAQ n'est pas en danger mais, en même temps, n'a plus beaucoup de sièges qu'elle pourrait remporter. En gros, soit elle gagne facilement soit elle perd de beaucoup, si on simplifie.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeR8cMbi7HSLQgvcSOn6HcjnIxpn6rcmG0MaqKM2rQ4cUs84iCIn306k6irHwzTpZfe2dILleZsToQk2QsGPYUCgJ1d18UbAyDlLnfD-IIuPUeQwxbEEZbbVaLImT4TGH2hWSR_Kr3KND-E0ilc03XwzCOdbTOnEdbCxOmRonSR53aB43vOffRWw-M/s1152/Proj%20Qc%20August%2029.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="1152" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeR8cMbi7HSLQgvcSOn6HcjnIxpn6rcmG0MaqKM2rQ4cUs84iCIn306k6irHwzTpZfe2dILleZsToQk2QsGPYUCgJ1d18UbAyDlLnfD-IIuPUeQwxbEEZbbVaLImT4TGH2hWSR_Kr3KND-E0ilc03XwzCOdbTOnEdbCxOmRonSR53aB43vOffRWw-M/w640-h328/Proj%20Qc%20August%2029.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>La carte des projections</b></p><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1661804525585" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Sheet 1 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Qu/Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Qu/Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-US" /><param name="filter" value="publish=yes" /></object></div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1661804525585'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script><p style="text-align: justify;"><a href="https://public.tableau.com/views/Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1?:language=en-US&publish=yes&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link" target="_blank">Page au complète</a>.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><a href="https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/projections-par-circonscriptions.html" target="_blank">Projections par circonscription</a></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Soyons honnêtes, l'histoire de cette élection pourrait fort bien être la percée du Parti Conservateur d'Éric Duhaime. La CAQ étant maintenant bien pl;us centriste qu'en 2014, il y a une ouverture à droite. La fatigue de la pandémie aide aussi (mesures Covid, etc). Le PCQ n'est pas actuellement projeté gagnant dans aucun comté (et cela magré un bonus au chef Duhaime dans Chauveau) mais le parti est compétitif dans 4-6 comtés. Les nouveaux partis ont en général besoin d'un petit coup du pouce via un candidat local fort pour remporter des sièges (pensez QS). Est-ce le PCQ a de tels candidats? À part Duhaime, on verra. Il nous faudra surement des sondages par circonscription pour vraiment mesurer.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Bon voilà, demain je publierai une petite analyse/scénario où je montrerai à quel point il serait difficile pour la CAQ de ne pas gagner une majorité.</p>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-85706562169481174722022-08-27T09:18:00.002-07:002022-08-27T09:18:46.916-07:00Premières projections pour l'élection Québécoise de 2022<p style="text-align: justify;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEid_WrQ2VH_wQ70BW6ygX2rD0EA4TYedrQuZMRUoDE_7CprNHb8xbc_pq8Yom9n8AYya0z0lbcvkdqWVg67b-MRLsxM2PCVEsUhxYdgGo2O7NpTS-jtyadjxg8MxRCq49n5emq2syKvWVc4Hj3Zcs7NpWUMWacUjsC19ln5_bvshjSHraIvbnwysWKH/s2589/Carte%20proj%20Qc%20August%2027.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1340" data-original-width="2589" height="166" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEid_WrQ2VH_wQ70BW6ygX2rD0EA4TYedrQuZMRUoDE_7CprNHb8xbc_pq8Yom9n8AYya0z0lbcvkdqWVg67b-MRLsxM2PCVEsUhxYdgGo2O7NpTS-jtyadjxg8MxRCq49n5emq2syKvWVc4Hj3Zcs7NpWUMWacUjsC19ln5_bvshjSHraIvbnwysWKH/s320/Carte%20proj%20Qc%20August%2027.png" width="320" /></a></div>Petit poste rapide avec les projections basées sur le dernier <a href="https://leger360.com/fr/intentions-de-votes/la-politique-au-quebec-27-aout-2022/" target="_blank">sondage Léger</a> publié ce matin. Pas grand chose à dire pour l'instant tant la domination de la CAQ est totale.<p></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Les projections:</p><p style="text-align: justify;">CAQ entre 87 et 99 sièges, 100% de chances de gagner une majorité. La seule informaiton intéressante est que la CAQ gagne actuellement quasiment tous les sièges possibles (94). Donc pas de grande possibilité de croissance, les quelques comtés qu'elle ne gagne pas semblent hors de portée.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">PLQ entre 16 et 25. Ce parti n'existe quasiment pas dans le Québec franco. Si Anglade devait perde le vote anglo, ce parti se retrouverait sous les 10 sièges.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">QS entre 7 et 11. Cette formation conserve essentiellement ses acquis de 2018 mais pas de réelle possibilité de gains.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Le PQ entre 1 et 4, en gros compétitif dans l'est de la province et c'est tout.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Le PCQ entre 0 et 1. Il lui faudra concentrer son vote bien davantage dans la région de Québec et espérer des effects locaux avec ses candidats. Duhaime a de vraies chances dans son comté.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">La carte:</p><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1661616827825" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Sheet 1 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Qu/Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Qu/Quebeccarteprojections2022-TooCloseToCall/Sheet1/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-US" /><param name="filter" value="publish=yes" /></object></div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1661616827825'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Les projections <a href="https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/projections-par-circonscriptions.html" target="_blank">détaillées sont ici</a>.</p>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-51928535158448170492022-08-15T12:15:00.003-07:002022-08-15T14:46:08.470-07:00Almost final projections for the 2022 CPC leadership: Poilievre will be the next leader<p style="text-align: justify;">We now have enough data to make a (quasi) final call on this race. Quite honestly, we could have made this call back in February. It may well end up being one of the most boring leadership races ever -- Poilievre was the favorite from the start, took an early lead and kept it the whole way.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">The TL;DR version is: Poilievre will be the next leader. I truly believe there is 0% uncertainty here. The only unknowns are whether he'll win on the first ballot (almost guaranteed) and whether he'll be closer to 50 or 70%. Here are the projections with the 95% confidence intervals. Poilievre win 100% of the time but in some simulations (0.2% of the time), he needs a 2nd or 3rd ballot.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgASck1v35d9S-1-S3yAxKMi96fmYxrxSsrry4Bi4QCmKNGz6EZChiO2-dcFcW3MzUgt3OTf6ZtnJDheBoroIlzdgRL0zW3odrVRMKEHkv-FhbJYscWWkWPTf3E8FsouZCtdd2jqoKn-NDYTATeLnexxmdxaw-ISOSXFsTV5wSVKyH9xuj2R1khVt1Z/s1502/CPC%20projections%20August%2011%202022.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1502" data-original-width="774" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgASck1v35d9S-1-S3yAxKMi96fmYxrxSsrry4Bi4QCmKNGz6EZChiO2-dcFcW3MzUgt3OTf6ZtnJDheBoroIlzdgRL0zW3odrVRMKEHkv-FhbJYscWWkWPTf3E8FsouZCtdd2jqoKn-NDYTATeLnexxmdxaw-ISOSXFsTV5wSVKyH9xuj2R1khVt1Z/w330-h640/CPC%20projections%20August%2011%202022.png" width="330" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: justify;">The 56-74 range is based on 10k simulations with sample size 100 (yes very small but that's to make sure I included enough uncertainty in the model; I based this estimate off the performance of the projections in 2020). Interestingly, 56-74 is very similar to the range of the 4 metrics I used. Poilievre is at 72% based on Google Trends but only at 56% in the Mainstreet poll (once I redistributed the undecided and the Brown's voters).</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Projections by province (it's percentage of points).</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtlowEVJl_z79iQtZiwwfWRo5fhrrjL-3zs894T9MM2giC87jlR13GXQKg-e1HNPaVB6FPGEwdEYGiRC6KbITikfpl6tm87h9Yg19zPghd_pcy1Y4xiPhnN2-JXQZThZsd1BmocV5tyTuXptX9ilxNvqW2jWl4WCqrBO0lgtnS1HVrZ9p4ZPQ3MTGG/s1227/CPC%20projections%20by%20province%20August%2015.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="468" data-original-width="1227" height="244" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtlowEVJl_z79iQtZiwwfWRo5fhrrjL-3zs894T9MM2giC87jlR13GXQKg-e1HNPaVB6FPGEwdEYGiRC6KbITikfpl6tm87h9Yg19zPghd_pcy1Y4xiPhnN2-JXQZThZsd1BmocV5tyTuXptX9ilxNvqW2jWl4WCqrBO0lgtnS1HVrZ9p4ZPQ3MTGG/w640-h244/CPC%20projections%20by%20province%20August%2015.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: justify;">As you can see, Poilievre leads everywhere, including in Quebec. In this province, the only metric that would put Charest on top is the fundraising but only looking at the amounts collected, not the number of donors. Charest just got many large donations there. But the fundraising by riding would put Poilievre above 60%. Charest has a 12% chances of finishing first in Quebec. West of Ontario, Charest is likely to finish 3rd or worse.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">I personally think Ontario is the most fascinating province with a extended 3-way race for second. Charest is favored here with all the measures but was actually fourth (!) using the fundraising by riding!</p><p style="text-align: justify;">One more stat: Charest has a 94% chance of finishing ahead of Lewis overall.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">As I've said, there are very few simulations where Poilievre fails to clear the 50% threshold in the first round. Is he at risk then? After all, that's what happened to Bernier and MacKay! The answer is not at all as he's actually at the center of this field and would therefore get a lot of second votes. See below my estimates based on the Mainstreet poll and the people who donated to more than one candidate:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi808rrd0gbhsVp-lZuni3YDMic3k5Gh-O2law8L68fPe3jYCBshyXKYJeyaLeMerT1Bxvk5tfF5E6a3u811NOqm8kzMmARxJ4BwsKLPk8eTLumyRMIszwat-Bb9BpnKIuAY1t1pkcTyP82N1bc0Cvgap2-XCLtd_AN01nFsKSto9SgKXQpMZn6CvBx/s1429/CPC%20second%20choices%202022.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="521" data-original-width="1429" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi808rrd0gbhsVp-lZuni3YDMic3k5Gh-O2law8L68fPe3jYCBshyXKYJeyaLeMerT1Bxvk5tfF5E6a3u811NOqm8kzMmARxJ4BwsKLPk8eTLumyRMIszwat-Bb9BpnKIuAY1t1pkcTyP82N1bc0Cvgap2-XCLtd_AN01nFsKSto9SgKXQpMZn6CvBx/w640-h234/CPC%20second%20choices%202022.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p style="text-align: justify;">As you can see, Poilievre has a lot of reserves among Lewis and Baber. He's also not doing that badly with Brown, Charest and Aitchison. I think it's fascinating how 16% of Charest supporters have Poilievre as second choice (and more if you include the 3rd choices of those who would go to Lewis) but only 6% of Poilievre supporters have Charest as second. It's similar to 2020 where MacKay's supporters had O'Toole as second choice but the opposite wasn't true.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Just to illustrate how dominant Poilievre is, in the eventuality of a last round with him vs Charest, Poilievre would win 79 to 21! Anybody saying Poilievre can only win if he wins outright in the first round is just being delusional. This isn't Bernier or MacKay.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Finally, here's the map per riding. I simply used my fundraising map and did a uniform swing to match the % above. I also redistributed the voters of Patrick Brown. Poilievre wins 308 ridings, Charest 18 (14 in Quebec), Aitchison and Baber each win their own. Lewis doesn't win a single one.</p>
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1660590528342" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Sheet 1 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/CP/CPCleadership2022projectionsfull/Sheet1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="CPCleadership2022projectionsfull/Sheet1" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/CP/CPCleadership2022projectionsfull/Sheet1/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-US" /><param name="filter" value="publish=yes" /></object></div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1660590528342'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script><p style="text-align: justify;">You can see the <a href="https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/bryan.breguet/viz/CPCleadership2022projectionsfull/Sheet1?publish=yes" target="_blank">full map</a> here.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>Methodology and commentary</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Leadership races are harder to project than regular elections. One obvious reason being the fact that only members can vote. It is therefore almost impossible to poll. However, we get a better metric: the fundraising data. We also have the data from Google Trends that has proven fairly accurate in the past (more on this later). So here are the four data sources I used:</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">1) The fundraising by riding. <a href="https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2022/08/riding-level-map-of-q2-fundraising-for.html" target="_blank">I created this map</a> recently where I aggregated the unique donors by ridings. This is likely the best metric we have although it likely underestimates some candidates in some ridings (where there are very few donors). It's especially useful to measure the efficiency of the vote.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">2) The fundraising at the provincial level. That's the metric I used last time. Yes it's technically the same data as 1) but it might provide for a less distorted version than the riding one. As I said, many ridings only had a few donors and it could amplify the number of points received by a candidate. Moreover, I used an average of the number of donors and the amounts collected. The former should be more accurate (and has proven to be in the past) but the latter can be a proxy for organization and who is supporting a candidate (Charest, for instance, gets a lot of high donations. While it's still one person, one vote, it could be the sign he has the support of older, richer people who are more likely to return their ballots). Amounts received really help Charest as he barely got more donors than Baber and fewer than Lewis but his average donation amount is much higher. This is particularly the case in Quebec. So see 2) as a slight boost to Charest's chances.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">3) Google Trends, partially adjusted. In 2020, we would have got the following projections: O'Toole at 30%, MacKay at 27%, Lewis at 26% and Sloan at 17%. They actually received, respectively, 32, 34, 21 and 14%. So MacKay was underestimated, O'Toole slightly underestimated, Sloan and especially Lewis were overestimated. Still not a bad projection. This year, I used the data from Google Trends and I assumed that Poilievre was the candidate overestimated (a phenomenon that seems common to more right-wing politicians), Charest was underestimated and the rest was mostly okay (Lewis was overestimated in 2020 but she's doing a lot worse this year, so I didn't adjust her down). Even after adjustments, this is the metric that is projecting the biggest margin of victory for Poilievre. This is also the only metric that could be updated between now and September 10th. I haven't decided if I'll bother updating my projections.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">4) That <a href="https://old.ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/CPC_Leadership_June_NU.pdf" target="_blank">one Mainstreet poll done among CPC members</a>. It was published all the way back in June and I have confirmed with them that they had the 2020 membership list, not the new one with 675k members. So it's not the most useful poll. It's likely a good estimate of the voting intentions among pre-existing members (that are also more likely to return their ballots).</p><p style="text-align: justify;">I ultimately gave 25% weight to each metric (so the fundraising, combined, was at 50%). In 2020, I only used the fundraising and the Mainstreet polls. I had the following projections: MacKay at 37%, O'Toole at 30%, Lewis at 21% and Sloan at 12%. So it was pretty close with MacKay performing worse mostly because he failed in Quebec (he was projected to win it with 44% of the points but only got 34%). I did not introduce any of my own biases into the data analysis. If anything, whenever I made adjustments, they were justified and in favour of Charest.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">There are people out there who argue leadership races are unpredictable. I strongly disagree. If we didn't have the fundraising data, maybe. But we do and it has proven to work remarkably well on multiple occasions. Also, more importantly, literally every metric we can use this year points at the same outcome: a first ballot victory. Anybody pretending this race is close, tightening or whatever is either spinning or terrible at data analysis (or both).</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">A few words about each candidate:</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Poilievre. I don't have much to add. His campaign has been quite impressive, if maybe repetitive by the end. He has clearly decided that his path to power was by first uniting the right (read: getting the PPC back) and less by trying to convince so-called Blue Liberals swing voters. I have been clear that I believe there is a lot of truth there. I don't buy that there are a many Liberal voters who are unhappy with Trudeau and would jump to the CPC if that party had a 'fiscally conservative, socially progressive' leader. 2019 and especially 2021 have shown that the 32% or so of people who vote for the Liberals are very solid in their choice. Is it possible to get them? Maybe in the perfect conditions. Polls have usually shown that some LPC voters could switch if Charest was leader but not Poilievre (alternatively, the PPC would be in double digits territory with Charest as CPC leader). As I've said, I have my doubt that such a shift would survive a 35 days campaign. But anyway, we are years away from the next election (likely). As far as this leadership is concerned, Poilievre is the clear favorite. Despite what you might have read on Twitter or Reddit, he doesn't actually divide the party. All the polls have shown that very few CPC members or voters dislike him. If there is one divisive candidate, it's actually Charest (we got many polls showing that a large share of voters wouldn't support the party if he were leader). Looking at the second choices also show that: Poilievre actually has a lot of reserve of votes in Lewis and Baber. He's actually not even that far behind Charest among the Brown and Aitchison voters. There really only are a tiny minority that dislike him among conservatives. But this minority is very loud.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">He's the only politician on the right to have a social media game. Many dumbasses have called him the Trump of Canada but I personally think that the only true comparison is that he's the Trudeau of the right. Young, incredibly popular among his base and hated by the other side. He signed up more members than the total the party had in 2020! His announcement video was watched over 2 million times. It's really something quite unique by Canadian standards.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Will he need to pivot after the leadership? Well... that's not his thing. I do think there will be a change in tone (somewhat) and focus. But don't expect Poilievre to all of a sudden not want to defund the CBC or not support the convoy. We'll see if he can assemble a coalition large enough to win in 2025. I personally think that his strategy should guarantee 140 seats. Beyond that? Well he'll need to do better in the GTA and/or Quebec. He'll need to do better with women (especially soccer moms) and people over 55+. This is where a small change of tone could do wonders. He has potential but it's too early to tell if he'll be successful or not in my opinion.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Charest. His campaign started very slowly and I strongly suspect he got dragged into this by bad advice from Boomers and the Quebec caucus. These people probably told him he'd be the savior of the party if he ran. Have you seen this video announcement? That was pathetic. His campaign is also plagued by incredibly incompetent people around him. When his co-chair is saying nonsensical stuff such as "freedom is a dog whistle" and she spends more time selling her book than her candidate, you know there is something wrong. I don't think Charest ever had a path to win but a better campaign could have made things more interesting. As it stands, Charest will be fortunate to finish above 20%. <a href="https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/bryan.breguet/viz/CPCleadership2022Charest/Sheet1" target="_blank">And outside of Quebec</a>, he might well be fighting more with Baber than Poilievre.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">I don't personally have any problem with Charest or his policies (as a matter of fact, I quite like both) but he and his team clearly made mistakes. They attacked Poilievre way too hard for supporting the convoy (a majority of CPC voters and especially members supported it). He put out, in my opinion, too many very detailed policies. A leadership race isn't the time for this, he'd have been better off just focusing on 2-3 big ideas.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">He and his team also spent weeks gaslighting us about "it's not about the numbers, it's about the points". The fundraising analysis by riding showed that Charest will indeed likely get more points than votes (thanks to Quebec) but it's a difference of about 4%. The idea that 80k members (rough estimates from me) could be so efficiently distributed that they'd beat the 311k of Poilievre is ridiculous. Poilievre's vote is actually not very inefficient. Sure he 'wastes' some in Alberta in ridings with thousands of members but he's still winning everywhere. As a matter of fact, the Charest vote is only efficient at the aggregate level. What I mean by this is that the % of votes is actually higher than the % of points in most provinces, including Quebec (Charest's voters are too concentrated in Montreal and Estrie). His vote only looks efficient Canada-wide because a higher share of his voters come from Quebec. In any case, efficiency won't save Charest from a likely very humiliating defeat to end his career. But hey, the pundits and the media will salute the 'last principled conservatives' or something like that, so it's not all negative for him.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Lewis. She came so close to winning last time (she really only failed because she didn't speak French). It's quite different this time around. I think there are mostly two reasons. The first one is that while she can still count on the SoCons members, they represent a smaller share of the total. They have represented about 15-20% in 2017 and 2020 but that was with roughly 275k members, not the current 675k. On top of this, many of her voters in 2020 were libertarians, anti system, etc. Most of those voters have moved to Poilievre or Baber. She's also still terrible in debates and in French. All in all, she has no chance this year. She could, however, finish second. The fundraising data actually showed that her odds were quite good. Lewis is weird to me. One day she puts out a nice, compassionate email. The next day she spreads conspiracy theories. Not sure how Poilievre will take advantage of her in his shadow cabinet.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Brown. He's disqualified but let's talk about him a little bit. His campaign claimed to have signed 150k members but everybody with a brain knows it's BS. All the metrics we have put him below 10%, sometimes below 5%. And before one of you argue that his strategy (pandering to every racial and religious group out there to sign up new members) wouldn't register in such metrics, you are wrong. When he won the Ontario PC leadership in 2015, he actually won on Google Trends. He actually won the fundraising. So there is no reason to believe he was on track for more than 10% this year. I really wish he hadn't been disqualified. I wish the CPC will actually reveal the number of ballots cast for him (they said such ballots will directly go to their second choices).</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Baber. Watch out for him in Ontario and BC. The fundraising data put him ahead of Charest in those two provinces. He knows he can't win this overall but his GOTV strategy has been pretty good and focused on "no vote splitting with ranked ballot", thus trying to get some Poilievre supporters to rank him first. Beyond this, I don't have much to say. His themes are quite similar to Poilievre's and so are his voters. As a matter of fact, there is clearly a right side to the CPC where everybody likes Poilievre, Baber and Lewis. The second choices and multiple donors showed that.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Aitchison. Is fighting with Charest over the centrist voters. I personally think he ran an interesting campaign but leadership races are popularity contests and his style isn't very suited for that. He'll have increased his profile within the CPC and I guess that's all he wanted?</p>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-88021610558264981082022-08-02T12:01:00.004-07:002022-08-06T10:55:43.403-07:00Riding level map of the Q2 fundraising for the CPC leadership in 2022<div style="text-align: justify;"><i>Note: I updated this post and map on August 6th. The preliminary version only included data from Q2, I have now added the fundraising from Q1 as well. As usual, if you want more frequent updates, you should follow me on Twitter.</i></div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">The fundraising is by far the best metric when it comes to projecting leadership races. It beats the hell out of polling of voters (because members and voters of a party aren't the same). Usually, however, I used the data at the province level. But this year I decided to improve on it. Since the data about the donations from Elections Canada include the postal codes, I can map them at the riding level!</div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">This is exactly what I did here. I also made sure not to count a unique donor more than once. Some people donate more than once and to more than one candidate. Still, they'll only have one vote. If someone donated to more than one candidate, I split their vote. For instance, someone who donated to both Poilievre and Lewis (the most common occurrence of double donations), I gave 0.5 vote to each in that riding. This is why the map shows some vote totals with decimals.</div><div><div style="text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify;">If you want <a href="https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/bryan.breguet/viz/CPCleadership2022Q2/Sheet1?publish=yes" target="_blank">the full screen version</a>, click here. Remember that Tableau maps can be slow, so zoom in and wait 1-2 seconds. The name says Q2 but it does include Q1, I just couldn't rename the project.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1659466808151" style="position: relative;"><noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Sheet 1 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/CP/CPCleadership2022Q2/Sheet1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" style="display: none;"><param name="host_url" value="https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F" /> <param name="embed_code_version" value="3" /> <param name="site_root" value="" /><param name="name" value="CPCleadership2022Q2/Sheet1" /><param name="tabs" value="no" /><param name="toolbar" value="yes" /><param name="static_image" value="https://public.tableau.com/static/images/CP/CPCleadership2022Q2/Sheet1/1.png" /> <param name="animate_transition" value="yes" /><param name="display_static_image" value="yes" /><param name="display_spinner" value="yes" /><param name="display_overlay" value="yes" /><param name="display_count" value="yes" /><param name="language" value="en-US" /><param name="filter" value="publish=yes" /></object></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1659466808151" style="position: relative;"><br /></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1659466808151" style="position: relative; text-align: justify;">So what are the results? Well Poilievre wins easily. He gets 70% of the votes (Canada wide) and 67% of the points. He also wins 320 ridings (note: technically there were two ties with Charest, in Beloeil-Chambly and Mount-Royal Given the regions, I gave the latter to Charest and the former to Poilievre.</div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1659466808151" style="position: relative; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1659466808151" style="position: relative; text-align: justify;">Charest wins 14 ridings, 12 of which are in Quebec. The only CPC-held riding he wins is Richmond-Arthabaska, most likely thanks to Alain Reyes. Charest's vote is indeed efficient (as he likes to repeat it everywhere) as he goes 8% of the votes to 12% of the points. It's nice but ultimately in line with what I had been saying: the differences between the percentage of votes and points hasn't been that big during these leadership races. The biggest gap was 4 points for Lewis in 2020. So Charest is doing the same here. Nowhere near enough to win this thing. The fact he also only wins two ridings in the GTA (hilariously, University-Rosedale and Toronto St. Paul) really should put to bed the idea he's the candidate who can win this region. MacKay ran a bad campaign but he at <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Conservative_Party_of_Canada_leadership_election#/media/File:CPCLeadership2020Riding.png" target="_blank">least dominated in the GTA</a>!</div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1659466808151" style="position: relative; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1659466808151" style="position: relative; text-align: justify;">Look, I think Charest is a good guy, a principled conservative who would be a decent leader and PM. But his time has passed. His leadership campaign has alternated from the ugly (the first 2 weeks) to the good (his policies, performances during the debates). I suspect the issue might be his team who is really not advising well (most likely because they are a bunch of Boomers who don't understand the modern CPC). Ultimately, he's not even winning Quebec.</div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1659466808151" style="position: relative; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1659466808151" style="position: relative; text-align: justify;">Lewis is the only one not winning a riding. People have been wondering how the candidate who almost won in 2020 (she won the popular vote!) could fall so much. I believe there is a fairly simple explanation. First of all, the SoCons members represented 15-20% of the membership when there were about 275k members. But now that there are 675k, her share has decreased. Also, many of her 2020 voters were libertarians, anti-system, etc. They all left for Poilievre or Baber. Still, she could well end up with more votes than Charest and finishing second in points isn't impossible (she has 10% of the votes and 9% of the points).</div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1659466808151" style="position: relative; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1659466808151" style="position: relative; text-align: justify;">I included Brown since he was disqualified after Q2. His numbers don't look good. 2.5% of the voters, 3% of the points. His strategy clearly failed. He pretends to have signed up 150k members but I don't believe that. His numbers have been terrible in all metrics, from polls to Google Trends. Some will argue his strategy is different (basically signing up enough new members, mostly from religious and ethic minorities to overtake the other members). Sure. But if he were successful, we should still see some signs. When he won the Ontario PC leadership in 2015, he actually dominated on Google Trends and in the fundraising. But hey, he's winning two ridings in Brampton, the city he's the mayor of. I'm just glad his numbers are so low because I don't have to sweat about how to re-allocate them now that he's disqualified.</div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1659466808151" style="position: relative; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1659466808151" style="position: relative; text-align: justify;">Baber might be the surprise of this race. a guy that was mostly unknown outside of Ontario 6 months ago is getting over 7% of the votes and points. He's actually ahead of Charest in Ontario (by a lot!) and BC. He's also winning his former riding. His message is often quite close to Poilievre's, so I do believe it's relatively impressive how he managed to be so high while fighting the Poilievre juggernaut. I wonder if he's jump into federal politics after this.</div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1659466808151" style="position: relative; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1659466808151" style="position: relative; text-align: justify;">Finally, Scott Aitchison has been running a nice campaign with some great policies. But he isn't very successful. The moderate/Red Tories crowd is with Charest. He is winning his Ontario riding, so there's that. Scott didn't run to win this leadership but to increase his profile. I feel he was ultimately successful but I sure hope for him that he gets more than 1% at the end.</div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1659466808151" style="position: relative; text-align: justify;"><br /></div><div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1659466808151" style="position: relative; text-align: justify;">I'll use other sources when I make my final projections. Still, it's probably hard to beat a dataset of over 50k donors. Sure many ridings have low numbers of observations, but this is likely the most accurate map you can create right now. If I had to guess, I'd say the fundraising might be overestimating Poilievre a bit and underestimating Charest. But this map is just another example of a metric putting Poilievre well over 50% in the first round. At this point, anyone arguing that Poilievre will need multiple rounds isn't looking at the data correctly.</div> <script type="text/javascript"> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1659466808151'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script></div>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-21273982899556990942022-07-07T14:30:00.001-07:002022-07-07T14:30:42.903-07:00Updated projections for the CPC leadership race: Poilievre on the first ballot<p style="text-align: justify;">It has been <a href="https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2022/05/first-projections-for-cpc-leadership.html" target="_blank">two months since my last official projections</a> for the leadership race of the Conservative party. Back then I was only using the (limited) fundraising data from Q1. Since then, we have got a <a href="https://www.ipolitics.ca/news/main-winner-from-browns-ejection-is-charest-poll-shows" target="_blank">Mainstreet poll of the members</a> (not the voters; although their list is of the 2020 membership and we know Poilievre and Brown signed up a lot of people since) as well as the data from <a href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore/TIMESERIES/1657227000?hl=en-US&tz=420&date=2022-04-07+2022-07-04&geo=CA&q=%2Fm%2F04_0mr,%2Fm%2F01dzvn,%2Fg%2F11bw7049cm,%2Fm%2F0b5xp9,%2Fg%2F11g0mc_xyf&sni=3 " target="_blank">Google Trends</a>.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">For the last one, I understand many of you might think it's completely irrelevant but having played a lot with this data, I found that it would have done a <a href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore/TIMESERIES/1657227600?hl=en-US&tz=420&date=2020-06-20+2020-08-20&geo=CA&q=%2Fm%2F0ndjnnj,%2Fm%2F01jjnl,%2Fg%2F11bw7049cm,%2Fg%2F11h81m7y2k&sni=3 " target="_blank">fairly decent job in 2020</a>. MacKay was underestimated and Lewis was overestimated, but overall, it was fine. Much better than a poll of voters for instance. It'd also have predicted the <a href="https://trends.google.com/trends/explore/TIMESERIES/1657227600?hl=en-US&tz=420&date=2015-03-07+2015-05-07&geo=CA&q=%2Fm%2F0c9q08,%2Fm%2F0b5xp9&sni=3 " target="_blank">victory of Brown against Elliott for the Ontario PC in 2015</a>.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">The best metric remains the fundraising and we unfortunately won't have the Q2 figures until early August. So, for now, let's just use a mix of all the data sources we currently have. I feel fairly confident doing so because they all show the same result: Poilievre winning, most likely on the first ballot. If you think leadership races are unpredictable, especially when they use a weird points system (like it is the case here), think again. I have been very successful in previous races, whether it was for the CPC or the PQ for instance. Fundraising is a really good metric. Yes it's harder to be accurate than for a typical election but it's far from impossible.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Here are the projections. Brown is at 0% since he got disqualified (and I doubt he'll be able to force his way back in, judicially or politically). I have redistributed his votes based on the Mainstreet's second choices. I did assume that only 75% of his voters would ultimately cast a ballot though.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLDUbJk9JfvYM1mXHDbqOY290EHzVM7vXcLnrBXD8-hnjwdEGrcqt3pQkL1GpVwRbpOPyJbjVQqkPW4-4Lt_UsDICzQbGeMl4gqX1it7vgjmwqy3xABtUH3t6G8Z1gQLGTzC535xsWQpvs-BSGLhv2zlPXcF_IGDYZOwF3bV1ucPh6NqY9m1CEOoPz/s2323/CPC%20proj%20July%207.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="601" data-original-width="2323" height="166" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLDUbJk9JfvYM1mXHDbqOY290EHzVM7vXcLnrBXD8-hnjwdEGrcqt3pQkL1GpVwRbpOPyJbjVQqkPW4-4Lt_UsDICzQbGeMl4gqX1it7vgjmwqy3xABtUH3t6G8Z1gQLGTzC535xsWQpvs-BSGLhv2zlPXcF_IGDYZOwF3bV1ucPh6NqY9m1CEOoPz/w640-h166/CPC%20proj%20July%207.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">As I've said previously, Poilievre winning on the first ballot is the outcome of every single metric except the Q1 fundraising where he gets 48% (remove Brown and he likely gets over 50% though). We could also do some <a href="https://twitter.com/2closetocall/status/1544871325465919488" target="_blank">quick calculations using the membership numbers</a> and get Poilievre closer to 70% actually. Bottom line: this race is over and Poilievre will win.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">I honestly get a little bit tired of the many empty articles I see from various news outlets telling us "anything is possible" or "it's unpredictable". It's a crystal clear race, people who try to argue it's open or, worse, pretend Brown or Charest are leading are just delusional or idiots. The Charest campaign has spent weeks gaslighting us that it "wasn't about the numbers" and that they had the "points to win it". Look I get it, you need to do your PR job but this is embarrassing. Charest isn't winning, period. Before Brown got disqualified, Charest wasn't even sure to finish second. Many people (pundits, etc) will look stupid on September 10th.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Could Poilievre's vote be inefficient? Sure but the numbers his campaign released actually point to a fairly efficient vote distribution with, in particular, a high proportion of his members in points-rich Quebec. This isn't like Lewis in 2020. And even if it were, the difference between her percentage of votes (35% after the second ballot) and percentages of points (30%) wasn't that big (and it was the biggest of all campaigns in 2017 and 2020 combined). Also, as opposed to MacKay in 2020, Poilievre would always count on the second votes from Baber and Lewis. Unless all the metrics are wrong and Poilievre is below 40% of the first ballot, he's winning.</p><br /><p style="text-align: justify;">I'll build a model with simulations to get some probabilities in the next few weeks (to use with the Q2 fundraising data) but this is a race with very little uncertainty. And if you think the Poilievre campaign won't get its vote out, think again. It has been a very professional campaign that ahs run very efficiently. They aren't dropping the ball now.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Finally, I'd like to address the claim that a Poilievre's victory will just push a lot of centrist/moderate/Red Tories to the Liberals (or not to vote). While I do agree Poilievre winning will indeed upset some, every single data source we have has shown this impact to be small (max 15% of CPC voters dislike Poilievre) while a Charest win would upset as much as 40-50% of the CPC members and voters. There is simply no question that the Canadian Right has found its champion (similarly to how the Left found its in Trudeau) and it's Poilievre. You can dislike it, you can hate the increased polarization, but it's simply the truth. so there as well, feel free to express your discontent but don't make up stuff by pretending a Poilievre's victory would split the party. His victory is actually the only one that can unite the Right. Whether that will be enough to win in 2025 is a completely different question though.</p>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-47864242415024914492022-06-01T20:43:00.005-07:002022-06-01T20:59:06.912-07:00Final projections for Ontario 2022: a PC majority<p style="text-align: justify;">This might be one of the easiest times I've had making final projections and an official call. It's on par with <a href="https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2019/04/final-projections-for-alberta-2019.html" target="_blank">Alberta 2019</a> and <a href="https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2020/10/final-projections-for-2020-bc-election.html" target="_blank">BC 2020</a> in how confident I am of the winner. It'd take a monumental polling error tomorrow for Doug Ford not to get a majority.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">This arrives at the end of what was a very boring campaign to follow and cover. Ford and the PC started in majority territory, dipped a tiny bit in the middle (like in 2018) and are ultimately finishing so strong that they could end up winning more seats than 4 years ago. It's pretty wild to write this when Ford was a complete disaster before Covid. Who would have thought that Ford would keep his Covid polling bump more than Trudeau? So let's take a look at the polls and the seat projections.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">As always, remember that you can use <a href="https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2022-simulator.html" target="_blank">the model yourself here</a> and you can <a href="https://twitter.com/2closetocall" target="_blank">follow me on Twitter</a> where I post a lot more updates (along with a lot of crap lol)</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>1. The polls</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">As previously mentioned, it was mostly boring. No massive swing or anything. The only entertainment came out of the daily Mainstreet numbers that were fluctuating too much (in typical 3-days rolling fashion). I seriously think rolling polls are useless and shouldn't exist. They experience wild fluctuations and drive the overall narrative way too much. Quasi unanimity of the polls towards the end, so much that you have to wonder if there isn't some herding by pollsters.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBxer7k5g2oRwqOcbc_A77bVhEso3uvcktmhHgp7KITOkOpTq0oyg5FkK4OfoV4cm7pimzGboUDjWuPK4A__xPbWjaxer6egiCA0ZQDhNdN7H3eD220wEkLOFMMUnZBvYAGpMzExtzUM6T4ymqBEBwbQzGncu01qpcFsS11JzlSN2rijnSMoqwfScu/s1013/Polls%20Ontario%202022%20final.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="529" data-original-width="1013" height="334" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBxer7k5g2oRwqOcbc_A77bVhEso3uvcktmhHgp7KITOkOpTq0oyg5FkK4OfoV4cm7pimzGboUDjWuPK4A__xPbWjaxer6egiCA0ZQDhNdN7H3eD220wEkLOFMMUnZBvYAGpMzExtzUM6T4ymqBEBwbQzGncu01qpcFsS11JzlSN2rijnSMoqwfScu/w640-h334/Polls%20Ontario%202022%20final.png" width="640" /></a></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">While the overall numbers were mostly stable (until the end), there were some movements in some regions. As you can see, the Liberals were gaining in Toronto and the GTA, the two regions they'd need to in order to make real gains. But it didn't last and the last minute trend is definitely favouring the PC. Online and IVR polls disagree on two regions: Toronto and the North. IVR polls have the Liberals clearly ahead in Toronto while the online polls have the PC essentially flat compared to 2018 and tied/slightly ahead of the Liberals. On the other hand, online polls have the PC with a much smaller lead over the NDP in the North. If online polls are correct, the PC will keep many of its seats in Toronto (maybe actually making gains) while falling short of gains in the North.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdPoR0vJ9pxCJPX5nTGpvH_eVgQxCrCP8NqSDOAYmXVmPZdLgRo9QJloorkM_n-nrOv20uNnh8txh913qlQ1k9a3NSJbl8vfhPybfHqlv7v1Xyvd824UXvIElh8mF87uI2OWzZuBzQJegmX6tMtyyixLLf0bFgsaXpu7_bClsoltoIV-BuPgHRAN4I/s1013/Polls%20Ontario%202022%20Toronto%20final.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="530" data-original-width="1013" height="334" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdPoR0vJ9pxCJPX5nTGpvH_eVgQxCrCP8NqSDOAYmXVmPZdLgRo9QJloorkM_n-nrOv20uNnh8txh913qlQ1k9a3NSJbl8vfhPybfHqlv7v1Xyvd824UXvIElh8mF87uI2OWzZuBzQJegmX6tMtyyixLLf0bFgsaXpu7_bClsoltoIV-BuPgHRAN4I/w640-h334/Polls%20Ontario%202022%20Toronto%20final.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjb7aEULTHvKvWZN7s__wqPJmxTVzhL2GHBO-SzU8yWYgrFzNnHf3Wjy_QNHKw8J7KSMyNfrI7pSYVhv0p_39ghev9bG2GeRnGeYlzX_ZxGUMTNuWybwIO4Q8uVzgWjNNGyT0b0r696AeWvX7fOYkBBhmJ15wEmssj0sO9qS_YPfwskNW3u3Y7mhAeg/s1013/Polls%20Ontario%202022%20GTA%20final.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="529" data-original-width="1013" height="334" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjb7aEULTHvKvWZN7s__wqPJmxTVzhL2GHBO-SzU8yWYgrFzNnHf3Wjy_QNHKw8J7KSMyNfrI7pSYVhv0p_39ghev9bG2GeRnGeYlzX_ZxGUMTNuWybwIO4Q8uVzgWjNNGyT0b0r696AeWvX7fOYkBBhmJ15wEmssj0sO9qS_YPfwskNW3u3Y7mhAeg/w640-h334/Polls%20Ontario%202022%20GTA%20final.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>2. Seat projections</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Here you go, the money shot.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDgW6QRhdCF0Vy7WwGs0iprbQ_RWnWrMkE9eb3HoY_l9rFGZa1LSBxwMjgt6NhX8Ugc3nHQyzDgOA09ofjQ3PXK5L7e3mR0rarkmjtO1JJcmDI8uJ-aRx3EE3l1mpzC3YcMvtFh-eiwVutcgYQqsfHGhOriWlkKSwtizORBCJKxJlVUNxU1p5tArtf/s606/Final%20projections%20Ontario%202022.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="374" data-original-width="606" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDgW6QRhdCF0Vy7WwGs0iprbQ_RWnWrMkE9eb3HoY_l9rFGZa1LSBxwMjgt6NhX8Ugc3nHQyzDgOA09ofjQ3PXK5L7e3mR0rarkmjtO1JJcmDI8uJ-aRx3EE3l1mpzC3YcMvtFh-eiwVutcgYQqsfHGhOriWlkKSwtizORBCJKxJlVUNxU1p5tArtf/w400-h246/Final%20projections%20Ontario%202022.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Polling average; Seat projections with 95% confidence intervals; Chances of winning the most seats</td></tr></tbody></table><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Very little uncertainty. The chances of a PC majority are 98%!! It's not guaranteed but very close to it.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">The map:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixT_O9Zev-DiVlb_CBG5VKbNiLBvBs1eKHdjHWWQw1ybsjwRyrgGdYjaLHrzAUmjmB8n5Fq5AHNkW9EiPzQtGFNdReTKIUHIx_GDVnAZIcZVBVK-Tj3xnq6qSvN805p_uTfIgUHtM7CPYFWGjlgiVReytOML_qy1SnNIwK_abFGD6X2S_Qk95UTDvv/s1501/Final%20projections%20Ontario%202022%20map.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1479" data-original-width="1501" height="630" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixT_O9Zev-DiVlb_CBG5VKbNiLBvBs1eKHdjHWWQw1ybsjwRyrgGdYjaLHrzAUmjmB8n5Fq5AHNkW9EiPzQtGFNdReTKIUHIx_GDVnAZIcZVBVK-Tj3xnq6qSvN805p_uTfIgUHtM7CPYFWGjlgiVReytOML_qy1SnNIwK_abFGD6X2S_Qk95UTDvv/w640-h630/Final%20projections%20Ontario%202022%20map.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7-xngMc7lCjfXiuLaR6Hn01GlowPClgjFrG_Iy2DlppoJHWJx92OuocfQwQLIwKd8SWoIhPLEAMxF7o7KVzKsHbR_Rpg8YIsT2XIpKcZJbeLNnWYV1tjL8TpNgQS0FN_BY84z7m62ps6_pNvWby-fWq2cA212qxNq_1WYNYnFf4W5lW0zqsanZ0sw/s2269/Final%20projections%20Ontario%202022%20map%20GTA.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1132" data-original-width="2269" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7-xngMc7lCjfXiuLaR6Hn01GlowPClgjFrG_Iy2DlppoJHWJx92OuocfQwQLIwKd8SWoIhPLEAMxF7o7KVzKsHbR_Rpg8YIsT2XIpKcZJbeLNnWYV1tjL8TpNgQS0FN_BY84z7m62ps6_pNvWby-fWq2cA212qxNq_1WYNYnFf4W5lW0zqsanZ0sw/w640-h320/Final%20projections%20Ontario%202022%20map%20GTA.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>I know it's insane to see the OLP wiped out of the GTA and the PC sweeping it, but polls have given the PC a giant lead in the GTA. Leger, for instance (with a small sample, I admit), has the PC at 50% in the 905! 26 points ahead of the OLP. My guts tell me the NDP saves Brampton East but the model said otherwise. Doesn't make a big difference at the end, it's mostly symbolic.<div><br /><p style="text-align: justify;">Interactive (but slow) version <a href="https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/bryan.breguet/viz/Ontarioprojections2022/ProjectionsOntario2022?publish=yes" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">There obviously are many seats that are uncertain. For instance, the Green have a shot in Parry Sound -- Muskoka with a strong campaign, no Liberal candidate (bravo OLP) and the PC losing a long term incumbent. New Blue could split the right enough in some SW ridings (thinking of Cambridge where <span style="text-align: left;">Belinda Karahalios, elected under the PC banner in 2018, is running for them). Hamilton East -- Stoney Creek could be interesting too with the former NDP MPP (long term) being kicked out of the party and running as an independent.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">Overall though, there is just not a lot of uncertainty. What would it take for Ford not to win a majority? Well <a href="https://twitter.com/2closetocall/status/1531057679728226304" target="_blank">I posted such a scenario on Twitter the other day</a>. Basically: polls overestimating the PC and the NDP/OLP having very efficient vote. That would mean the NDP concentrating their support around Niagara, Hamilton, Kitchener and Brampton as well as keeping the North. As for the OLP, they would need to overperform in the Peel region. Possible? Yes, but unlikely.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">There are two uncertainties (beside the majority/minority thingy). First one is whether the NDP will win more seats than the OLP. My simulations say the odds are at 84%. Secondly, will the Liberals regain official party status (12 seats). Chances are at 85%. So the Liberals should at least have that, although their leader, Steven Del Duca, is unlikely to win his own riding.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">Finally, maybe the real uncertainty is the size of the majority. In a perfect storm, Ford could win close to 90 seats. In this scenario, he's keeping his Toronto seats and all of the GTA (even making gains thanks to the NDP being lower). He would also make significant gains in the North. Speaking of which, polls are clearly showing a re-alignment there with the NDP in sharp decline. They might not lose their seats (yet) thanks to the large majorities they had, but the trend is clear. We also observed such trend at the federal level. The NDP is slowly but surely losing its rural, working class support. It doesn't hurt the Ontario NDP as much because they at least win some seats in Toronto, something Jagmeet Singh has been spectacularly incapable of in two elections.</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">Here are the detailed projections:</span></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></p>
<p style="-x-system-font: none; display: block; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font: 14px Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: normal; margin: 12px auto 6px;"> <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/576697358/Final-Projections-Ontario-2022#from_embed" style="text-decoration: underline;" title="View Final Projections Ontario 2022 on Scribd">Final Projections Ontario 2022</a> by <a href="https://www.scribd.com/user/4187788/bryanbreguet#from_embed" style="text-decoration: underline;" title="View bryanbreguet's profile on Scribd">bryanbreguet</a> on Scribd</p><iframe class="scribd_iframe_embed" data-aspect-ratio="1.2941176470588236" data-auto-height="true" frameborder="0" height="600" id="doc_37395" scrolling="no" src="https://www.scribd.com/embeds/576697358/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&access_key=key-KHmPBrUA4Dz5S2C7Ci31" title="Final Projections Ontario 2022" width="100%"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">(function() { var scribd = document.createElement("script"); scribd.type = "text/javascript"; scribd.async = true; scribd.src = "https://www.scribd.com/javascripts/embed_code/inject.js"; var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(scribd, s); })();</script></div>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-77557463416861736032022-05-25T14:42:00.004-07:002022-05-25T14:42:21.625-07:00Ontario projections update: with one week to go, Ford still solidly in majority territory<p style="text-align: justify;">This Ontario election is turning out to be a real snooze fest. There is almost no movement in the polls. Whenever we think something is happening (OLP rising, etc), it gets cancelled out by the next 2-3 polls.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">The result? Well, projections are super stable. The most noteworthy change of this update is the fact the Green are now projected to win a second seat in Parry Sound -- Muskoka. The lack of a Liberal candidate, the loss of a long term incumbent for the PC and the strong Green candidate are all adding up to the perfect condition for a stunning upset.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">With one week to go, I don't really think there is any remaining uncertainty. If the progressive vote was to coalesce around one option, it'd have done so already. Sure they are a fair number of close races in Toronto and its suburbs (mostly PC vs OLP races) but even if the Liberals were to overperform there, Ford would likely still get his majority. Plus polls show that older voters, as well as those who are sure to vote, favour the PC more. That means the Conservatives could be underestimated.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">So anyway, here are the projections</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjc8IapRxKoS9nh3-tOmjW5mR0Ii32mM_eDvfTWRqTif67ELkovlJao9LwUZnhL8Wlyq5CkoEvylRn9t2xlIbTtYPOdj61ACGNLuOeqnQD-z6e9g3YwvkndkONb1bclaP0ZTiMfHpYcbv6xEZv2VEHdK5Zc3OMbTfpjR55zcpeFbaO3ZUoYXIiWI2Gn/s601/Proj%20Ontario%20May%2025.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="601" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjc8IapRxKoS9nh3-tOmjW5mR0Ii32mM_eDvfTWRqTif67ELkovlJao9LwUZnhL8Wlyq5CkoEvylRn9t2xlIbTtYPOdj61ACGNLuOeqnQD-z6e9g3YwvkndkONb1bclaP0ZTiMfHpYcbv6xEZv2VEHdK5Zc3OMbTfpjR55zcpeFbaO3ZUoYXIiWI2Gn/w640-h400/Proj%20Ontario%20May%2025.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Polling average; Seat projections with 95% confidence intervals; Chances of winning the most seats</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>The map</b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjY0fZ4GV9Yb271ULsba_aFW2YkbBv2ZA_KlkunWGzY6SGs-GFtFAbgOOhMaLLRDYlfQ4iTdvjzQjjGEEYLtC1v08aikB2uhtBUAQeXZ_v4U3m0Vm2JlIV_JhuhrLtjiRMwNEt5i8hjQSBCbtTEhZ23ZS-e9PauaT2l_ItiDG_Y03rVTQ0QprbrUJFB/s1526/Proj%20Ontario%20May%2025%20map.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1501" data-original-width="1526" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjY0fZ4GV9Yb271ULsba_aFW2YkbBv2ZA_KlkunWGzY6SGs-GFtFAbgOOhMaLLRDYlfQ4iTdvjzQjjGEEYLtC1v08aikB2uhtBUAQeXZ_v4U3m0Vm2JlIV_JhuhrLtjiRMwNEt5i8hjQSBCbtTEhZ23ZS-e9PauaT2l_ItiDG_Y03rVTQ0QprbrUJFB/w400-h394/Proj%20Ontario%20May%2025%20map.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhx8vDEysCEeh5aIj7Dj6cvUbn59ywH5US6LhNLKzLb9y0McfAGYOgKLatwIuc0ft6w0P_JcT9MD6GehlAXDm2kzxTxKDzmjQjfWKbXwQ-cWLk9N-QGcRV5Cf_HcJltPO_a7Y2GmujA_k-rPANR3qr-5c6_O9sKJ8tX3IdszyEpf-hMLl3vA9liRcxf/s1344/Proj%20Ontario%20May%2025%20map%20GTA%20+%20SW.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="984" data-original-width="1344" height="293" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhx8vDEysCEeh5aIj7Dj6cvUbn59ywH5US6LhNLKzLb9y0McfAGYOgKLatwIuc0ft6w0P_JcT9MD6GehlAXDm2kzxTxKDzmjQjfWKbXwQ-cWLk9N-QGcRV5Cf_HcJltPO_a7Y2GmujA_k-rPANR3qr-5c6_O9sKJ8tX3IdszyEpf-hMLl3vA9liRcxf/w400-h293/Proj%20Ontario%20May%2025%20map%20GTA%20+%20SW.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><b>The riding by riding projections</b></p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p>
<p style="-x-system-font: none; display: block; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font: 14px Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: normal; margin: 12px auto 6px;"> <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/575752389/Ontario-Proj-May-25#from_embed" style="text-decoration: underline;" title="View Ontario Proj May 25 on Scribd">Ontario Proj May 25</a> by <a href="https://www.scribd.com/user/4187788/bryanbreguet#from_embed" style="text-decoration: underline;" title="View bryanbreguet's profile on Scribd">bryanbreguet</a> on Scribd</p><iframe class="scribd_iframe_embed" data-aspect-ratio="1.2941176470588236" data-auto-height="true" frameborder="0" height="600" id="doc_78843" scrolling="no" src="https://www.scribd.com/embeds/575752389/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&access_key=key-LN45w3QT5tt7oowcT3l9" title="Ontario Proj May 25" width="100%"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">(function() { var scribd = document.createElement("script"); scribd.type = "text/javascript"; scribd.async = true; scribd.src = "https://www.scribd.com/javascripts/embed_code/inject.js"; var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(scribd, s); })();</script>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2001694294762475204.post-42619718130647738942022-05-18T15:33:00.002-07:002022-05-18T15:33:31.287-07:00Ontario projections update, May 18th: Chances of a PC majority down to 71%<p style="text-align: justify;">Quick update to the projections after many new polls (Leger, Abacus, Mainstreet, Research Co.). We see a tightening of the race, although the PC is still virtually guaranteed to win the most seats. However, the chances of a majority are now down to 71%. Still good obviously but we are now getting to the point where a slight overperformance of the OLP in the GTA (or an underperformance of the PC) could cause a minority, in which case I suspect Del Duca would govern with the help of Horwath.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGwtIYRvOuHqIPOu_uJ7eW6TKghLmmPj89EfOa9rsczbhaCk0YpIr_EsNlAklvdW6en_QNnuADFkm4UAQC63l7Eg9HS5EBYX-aVZGuapiZDeaG-SbcQ629MXzG3YBskmU2rMwi1Z5oUXh2vDrRZqx_snVmKH44uVIcocx08IU2MX94qouC5xM1J2Ve/s601/Proj%20Ontario%20May%2018.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="371" data-original-width="601" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGwtIYRvOuHqIPOu_uJ7eW6TKghLmmPj89EfOa9rsczbhaCk0YpIr_EsNlAklvdW6en_QNnuADFkm4UAQC63l7Eg9HS5EBYX-aVZGuapiZDeaG-SbcQ629MXzG3YBskmU2rMwi1Z5oUXh2vDrRZqx_snVmKH44uVIcocx08IU2MX94qouC5xM1J2Ve/w400-h248/Proj%20Ontario%20May%2018.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Polling average; Seats projections with 95% confidence intervals; Chances of winning the most seats</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu4t79PaTtbTS3QeBwC3HBGPMvmGlyePLqpMmtoZqIxTwK7LrTkntEamj3oE7bga0_xNlVhDiiJvK9Nf7Ko9GNL3OWkDHwn6PLiqFKd59Be4UiMueG2CNL1ouuFL9X3c0nViZR6hqjcdK4hRY0zOpkKagRG88e820y7UVccZXXJXvULgZB6QcWhh3Q/s1559/Prok%20Ontario%20Map%20May%2018.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1526" data-original-width="1559" height="626" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu4t79PaTtbTS3QeBwC3HBGPMvmGlyePLqpMmtoZqIxTwK7LrTkntEamj3oE7bga0_xNlVhDiiJvK9Nf7Ko9GNL3OWkDHwn6PLiqFKd59Be4UiMueG2CNL1ouuFL9X3c0nViZR6hqjcdK4hRY0zOpkKagRG88e820y7UVccZXXJXvULgZB6QcWhh3Q/w640-h626/Prok%20Ontario%20Map%20May%2018.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWL20DtEiameMBowb39NUIOS4hE2lKlIQXPe9dTChawTck1hypiEw7brnYqAlNfkJORAwItBp-9IAJPeFUaMvoQ8zl0SKJw0fPRUDmJuG-rNF9aDxaitnRduqjOnxy2rYxStnCYmKdpxeLFILR9Whr6do1igWZfx5NHNHzkKYXYe3GjESTb0zFjTsF/s2247/Prok%20Ontario%20Map%20GTA%20+%20SW%20May%2018.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1306" data-original-width="2247" height="372" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWL20DtEiameMBowb39NUIOS4hE2lKlIQXPe9dTChawTck1hypiEw7brnYqAlNfkJORAwItBp-9IAJPeFUaMvoQ8zl0SKJw0fPRUDmJuG-rNF9aDxaitnRduqjOnxy2rYxStnCYmKdpxeLFILR9Whr6do1igWZfx5NHNHzkKYXYe3GjESTb0zFjTsF/w640-h372/Prok%20Ontario%20Map%20GTA%20+%20SW%20May%2018.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: justify;">The North, which was once very promising for the PC has fully reverted back to the NDP. Toronto back to the Liberals and the NDP could well lose 2-3 of the DT seats very soon. The PC majority/minority will be decided in the GTA/905. As many as 12 close races where the PC is currently winning by less than 5%, most of them against the Liberals.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">So, how could we end up with a minority? Well the OLP vote could just become very efficient and win those roughly 10 seats. The other solution would be for the OLP to 'brute force' it by simply getting closer to the PC province-wide. My estimates show that the PC majority is safe (i.e: over 50% chances of happening) as long as the PC keeps a lead of about 5.25 points over the OLP). It used to be that my estimates where that the PC could do it with a lead as small a 4-4.5. So we are definitely getting close to a too close to call territory. See below.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ_TzeoIAcR2JJry7i9M8KyYEEAOPzqHlixmhdf9i4YR_lwQoPstVOYkVx6dsBmOXPd1EPqKqDSj51n4XIzGvS88G-98bXyycrAkUToBhQBtcLbBrL26rfcmdJKLQipq94AqbBdrh7tAnTcf_Zc1Czmseu69CVUlgSe02Yo1tsRW3NHIy3WPH2YxC-/s973/PC%20majority%20logit%20May%2018.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="511" data-original-width="973" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJ_TzeoIAcR2JJry7i9M8KyYEEAOPzqHlixmhdf9i4YR_lwQoPstVOYkVx6dsBmOXPd1EPqKqDSj51n4XIzGvS88G-98bXyycrAkUToBhQBtcLbBrL26rfcmdJKLQipq94AqbBdrh7tAnTcf_Zc1Czmseu69CVUlgSe02Yo1tsRW3NHIy3WPH2YxC-/w400-h210/PC%20majority%20logit%20May%2018.png" width="400" /></a></div><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">We'll see of the debate allowed Del Duca the pish he needs to bring Ford back below 62 seats. David Coletto from Abacus has hinted on Twitter that his early data was showing the opposite: Ford did well. So let's wait and see.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Finally, thanks to the lack of a Liberal candidate in the riding, the Green have a shot at winning Parry Sound - Muskoka. Still a long shot but not impossible.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p>
<p style="-x-system-font: none; display: block; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-size-adjust: none; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font: 14px Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; line-height: normal; margin: 12px auto 6px;"> <a href="https://www.scribd.com/document/574846575/Ontario-Proj-May-18#from_embed" style="text-decoration: underline;" title="View Ontario Proj May 18 on Scribd">Ontario Proj May 18</a> by <a href="https://www.scribd.com/user/4187788/bryanbreguet#from_embed" style="text-decoration: underline;" title="View bryanbreguet's profile on Scribd">bryanbreguet</a> on Scribd</p><iframe class="scribd_iframe_embed" data-aspect-ratio="1.2941176470588236" data-auto-height="true" frameborder="0" height="600" id="doc_98041" scrolling="no" src="https://www.scribd.com/embeds/574846575/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&access_key=key-BarVUnLiEA3gYKhYY8T3" title="Ontario Proj May 18" width="100%"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">(function() { var scribd = document.createElement("script"); scribd.type = "text/javascript"; scribd.async = true; scribd.src = "https://www.scribd.com/javascripts/embed_code/inject.js"; var s = document.getElementsByTagName("script")[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(scribd, s); })();</script>Bryan Breguethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10546699915684107021noreply@blogger.com