January 21st 2013: BC NDP holds the lead

The BC Liberals keep increasing in the polls according to the latest from Angus-Reid. The gain of 2 points (as opposed to the last AR poll; The BC Libs have been polled higher by Ipsos for instance), coupled to the small decline of the BC NDP, show us a slightly tighter race in BC. However, the 15-points lead for the NDP is more than enough to secure a comfortable majority.

The rise of the Lib is again mostly done at the expense of the Conservatives, as these two have been exchanging votes for a long time now (just look at the graphs). If you input the AR numbers into the simulator, you see an easy win for the BC NDP. If you don't want to do this, here are the detailed projections, riding by riding. You also have the probability of winning in every riding. Remember, the probabilities come from a 1000 simulations where we take into account the uncertainty due to polls as well as the electoral system. As for winning the election, the BC NDP, with this poll only, would have a 100% chance of forming the government. However, in the worst case scenario (i.e: one where the NDP would perform significantly worse than the polls and be "unlucky" or inefficient with its vote), the BC NDP could get only 46 seats. What this means is that if the BC Liberals could climb back slightly more in the polls, a NDP majority isn't necessarily guaranteed.

Please notice that it doesn't mean that the BC NDP has already won. A lot of things can happen between now and next May. But as of right now, the odds are more than in favor of the NDP. The probabilities are for now, given the current information, not for the future.

I have one main issue with the poll though: the BC Conservatives would get their best results in metro Vancouver! Honestly, it doesn't make much sense. They should be higher in the interior, especially around Kelowna for instance. If these numbers are indeed true, I'd have to revise my current model as this one is based on the past elections and wouldn't assume that the BC Conservatives are taking their support mostly from metro Vancouver.

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