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July 07, 2010
Welcome to my new blog for electoral forecasting.
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The chances of a majority are falling for Ford while polls disagree with each others
Yesterday, we got the latest Ipsos poll . And for the first time during this campaign, it was showing the NDP ahead (by 1 point) among deci...
Ontario election: What is Google Trends showing?
Using searches on Google can be useful during an election . There seems to be at the very least a correlation between the quantity of searc...
How accurate are polls in Canada? Less than you think!
If you want more updates, follow me on Twitter . I'll post new projections later today, I want to wait for the new Nanos numbers. E...
Final projections for the Federal Election 2015: Liberal minority, surprises possible
After the longest campaign in Canadian history, it appears voters have made their choice and will elect a Liberal minority on Monday. There...
7 août 2012: transfuges politiques
Est-ce que les députés qui changent de parti ont davantage de chance d'être réélus? La question est pertinente pour cette élection puis...
BC poll: The Green Party continues to rise, especially on the island.
The latest BC poll by Mainstreet shows the BC Green party continuing its progression, now reaching 19% (among decided and leaning) and eve...
5 septembre 2012: Post-mortem détaillé
Quelle soirée électorale! Entre la surprise Libérale (ce parti était même en tête pendant une partie de la soirée), la relative déconvenue/...
April 28th: new projections show NDP as official opposition
Harris-Decima finally released a new poll. They were pretty much the only pollster which didn't publish a poll since the NDP's surge...
L'effet Couillard
Le chef Libéral a décidé de se présenter dans Roberval lors des prochaines élections générales. Cela sera la troisième circonscription pour...
What if Canada had an instant run-off electoral system?
The electoral system in Canada is known as first-past-the-post. The system is really simple: you finish first in a riding, you win. No need ...
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Pollsters and electoral ressources
Poll Position (France)
Election Almanac
All polls of the 2011 election (wikipedia)
Leger
Harris-Decima
Nanos Research
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