Projections for Quebec: Dec. 20th 2010

As opposed to the federal level, polls are way less common at the provincial one. Therefore, for our projections, we used the latest poll from Légermarketing. Here are the details.

The PQ would win a majority of seats if an election was held tomorrow. However, it would be a narrow majority, like the one the PLQ currently enjoys. To see that the PQ, in a period where the PLQ and especially its leader Jean Charest are so unpopular in public opinion, is projected below 70 seats is quite surprising. One could ask what it would take for the PQ and Pauline Marois to take off and reach a level of 40% in votes intentions.

The ADQ would lose a couple of votes since the last election, but thanks to the large drop of the PLQ, would still make some gains in term of seats. Nevertheless, if this party wants to play a major role in Quebec politics, it needs to go back close to 20%. By doing so, they could almost surely force a minority government and hold the balance of power.

Finally, QS would not only keep its current seat but gain a new one (in Gouin) for its co-leader. I'm still skeptical of all those polls putting QS around the 8-10% mark, but if they do get as many votes during the next election, I' sure they would indeed secure at least two seats. (Btw, yes the PVQ is projected below 0% in some ridings. I'll correct that next week. It isn't a big deal, it just means this party is really, really low in those ridings)

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